David Jones 
Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback
Derek Carr
The Eagles are ranked 31st in defensive DVOA only behind the Washington Commanders. They are ranked 22nd against the WR1 and 31st against the WR2. They have given up the 4th most receiving yards (385) only behind the Lions, Jaguars, and Patriots (who have played 3 games). They have allowed the second most receiving TDs in the league only trailing Washington.
The Saints have put up the most points in the NFL over the first two games led by Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara. Unless a completely different Eagles team and completely different Saints team show up on Sunday, this one seems easy given Carrs DraftKings price of $5,800 and low ownership (around 5%).
Others to consider:
- Kyler Murray
- Gardner Minshew
- CJ Stroud
Running Back
Jordan Mason
It appears we are just jumping right back on the Jordan Mason bandwagon. DraftKings refuses to price him up appropriately and this offense just lost Deebo Samuel and most likely George Kittle. The Rams are ranked 27th in DVOA against the rush while giving up 31.7 DraftKings points per game. That is the third worst in the league only behind the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys (thanks Alvin Kamara). Just roll out Mason and get different at another position because this isn’t the spot to get cute.
D’Andre Swift
I’ll give Swift a shot in GPPs. It isn’t like this guy will never be fantasy-relevant again in his career. This Sunday he draws what is one of the best fantasy matchups for running backs against the Indianapolis Colts. Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs have destroyed these guys. Both backfields combined for 350 rushing yards on a league-high 76 attempts. The Bears can not move the ball through the air and they are down Keenan Allen. It would be wise to attempt to establish the run with Swift or Khalil Herbert.
Others to consider:
- De’Von Achane
- Alvin Kamara
- Zach Charbonnet: The Dolphins have been getting worked by opposing running backs. They are tied for the second most rushing TDs allowed (3) while giving up 28.4 DraftKings points per game to the position. Charbonnet has been highly ineffective in the run game but can stack up points fast in the passing game – not that the Seahawks should be playing catchup here. He is a decent play with a slate-winning upside if the script goes in his direction.
- J.K. Dobbins: Bad matchup but nobody is playing him and he leads the league in rushing yards.
- Cam Akers: The only way I am playing Cam Akers is if I have exactly $4,700 left. I don’t think he is “washed”. I just hate the matchup. If he scores, which I lean on the side that he doesn’t, you will need him.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith
It isn’t the easiest matchup against the Saints for him as New Orleans is ranked 3rd in DVOA against the WR1, however, Smith has thrived as the true WR1 when A.J. Brown has been ruled out. In the last two seasons, when Brown has missed a game Smith’s fantasy production leaps from 14.7 PPR points to 21.7 PPR points. He averages just over two more receptions per game (7.5) while being targeted an average of 11 times per game. The touchdowns haven’t taken a massive jump going from 0.4 TDs per game to 0.5 TDs per game. The targets, receptions, and yards have been the largest boost.
The Saints are ranked 24th against the WR2. In this case, I am going to give Britain Covey the WR2 role, as he runs out of the slot. Jahan Dotson is going to largely draw coverage from rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry so he will also have the opportunity to perhaps string together a big catch or two.
Amari Cooper
The New York Giants are ranked 28th in DVOA against receivers while allowing the highest deep pass rate on the slate. WR1 Amari Cooper has had a steady diet of 8+ targets in each of the first two games. The primary matchups for him were much tougher against Trevon Diggs of the Dallas Cowboys and the Jacksonville Jaguars (21st in DVOA against the pass. Cooper will see a mix of Cor’Dale Flott (1.48 YPRC), Deonte Banks (1.30 YPRC), and rookie Andru Phillips. Both Flott and Banks are in the bottom 13 of all starting corners in the NFL, that are not rookies, in allowing yards per route covered. Cooper gains by far the most YPRR on the Browns (2.31) while having the most air yards and target percentage (22.6%). At only $6,100 for the star receiver, it is time to jump back on the ship.
Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings
It is pretty safe to say that a ton of the offense should flow through Brandon Aiyuk with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle joining Christian McCaffrey on the sidelines this Sunday. I tried to dig into splits with all three out and only Aiyuk in, but those don’t exist. The Rams have the 27th overall best pass defense via DVOA while giving up the second-highest deep ball percentage in the league. Aiyuk soaks up the most air yard on the team (14.5 per route run). He comes in at a laughable $6,200 on DraftKings. He will be my highest exposed receiver across cash and GPPs.
If you are trying to pivot off him simply because he is “chalk” I would go down to Jauan Jennings, coming in at under 4% owned. That is way too low for the role he is going to be playing against this Rams defense.
Tyler Johnson, Demarcus Robinson
The 49ers have been far worse against the WR2 (ranked 28th overall). In this case, Tyler Johnson is the WR2, as he and Robinson will play close to 100% of snaps. Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell should split the WR3 work.
Demarcus Robinson is the new WR1 for the Rams and isn’t “free” as DraftKings has raised his price to $5,000. He should play essentially every snap for LA, but will also draw the 49er’s best coverage of a combination of Isaac Yiadom and Charvaius Ward. He is no doubt a solid play overall but I prefer the lower-owned Johnson in top-heavy GPPs.
DeAndre Hopkins
He has been limited getting back into game shape but is reportedly going to get increased snaps moving forward. He will draw Eric Stokes of the Packers in primary coverage who has been giving up chuck yardage plays to receivers over the first two games. Calvin Ridley is going to likely draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, perhaps forcing more targets to Hopkins from Levis, like we saw last season. I am willing to take a shot on a cheap DHop in what could be a pass-heavy script for the Titans.
Last week’s slate breakers appear to be back in another good spot.
I really don’t want to just write up the guys who had a good game last week but when the research leads me to their names, I have no choice. I like filtering cornerbacks by how many yards they allow per covered route (YPRC). This week the two corners, who are not rookies, who have allowed the highest YPRC this season are Avonte Maddox (2.14) of the Eagles and Carlton Davis (1.82) of the Lions. If I sort by defender projected target share Avonte Maddox has the second-highest percentage on the slate (20%), while Carlton Davis comes in at the 13th highest (17.6%).
Avonte Maddox‘s primary matchup this week is Rasheed Shaheed.
Carlton Davis’s primary matchup is Marvin Harrison Jr.
There are two guys who smashed last week but you can run straight back to them, as that is where the numbers have led us.
Others to consider/mix in MME
- CeeDee Lamb: I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the most targets on the slate, in what might feel like a must-win game for Dallas (but isn’t).
- Justin Jefferson: He will see the most coverage from Texans rookie Kamari “the Locksmith” Lassiter. Lassiter is one of, if not the most, impressive rookie so far in the NFL. But trying to “lock up” Jefferson is an impossible task.
- Stefon Diggs
- Chris Olave
- Courtland Sutton
- Tank Dell
Tight End
Brock Bowers
My love for Brock Bowers this year isn’t going to stop going up against what has been one of the worst teams defending the tight end. The Panthers are bad at everything, not just defending the run. Some may flock to Zamir White because of the rushing stats and ignore the prime matchup for the former Georgia standout. The Panthers have allowed two passing touchdowns to the tight end this season, while no other team has allowed more than one. They have given up the third most fantasy points to the position while being targeted at the 25th-highest rate. Bowers is going to score this weekend at least once. He will perhaps move the highest-priced tight end over the next few games. He is a stud that you can ride all season long. Take the guaranteed points with Bowers, especially if fading White or Adams.
Others to consider:
- Dalton Schultz: I hate the matchup for Nico Collins. Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs are fine, but not great. The starting running back is Cam Akers. Dalton Schultz is starting to make a lot of sense going against a Vikings D that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to the position.
- Mark Andrews: The Ravens need a win so back to ole faithful for Lamar Jackson?
- Eric Saubert: My best guess at who gets the Lion’s share of snaps and targets in place of George Kittle. He is the only other 49ers tight end to earn significant snaps in the first two weeks. He averages 31% of snaps compared to Jake Tonges 1%.
- Colby Parkinson
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.
