David Jones 
Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback
Jared Goff
Jared Goff is this week’s Baker Mayfield, and Mayfield is going to have a front-row seat to witness it. In Week 1, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t show any sign of improving from last season as they are currently ranked 20th in DVOA against receivers. This is a Tampa secondary that allowed the 4th most receiving yards through the regular season in 2023 while only giving up 5 rushing TDs. Quite frankly they got bailed out last week going up against rookie Jaylen Daniels who attempted only 2 passes over 20+ yards, and 1 pass over 30+ yards. Goff and the boys should rip them apart in their first home game.
The starting slot corner for the Buccaneers, rookie Tykee Smith, is questionable. If he is out, then the Bucs have no one reliable (not that he was reliable) who can step in and cover the slot. Guess who runs out of the slot the most for the Lions? That would be Amon-Ra St. Brown (56.3% in Week 1). The Bucs are also down a safety and two backup corners. Starting left corner, Zion McCollum, returned to practice after leaving Week 1’s matchup with a concussion and will still need to clear protocol to be active. Veteran Jamal Dean man’s the right side of the field (82% in Week 1), and he gave up the most YPRC (1.28). He will see a mix of the Lions receivers, but mostly Jameson Williams (questionable) who is coming off a breakout game.
I do want Williams out there to help give me more confidence in playing Goff. If he is out I wouldn’t mind pivoting to Brock Purdy or a spend-up option like Lamar Jackson. If you find yourself without Goff, I still think you want one of his pass catchers – especially Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta.
Other top options:
- Lamar Jackson: He is your elite spend-up option. If salary is not an issue, he is your top QB.
- Brock Purdy: Makes a ton of sense if you fade Jordan Mason, doesn’t it?
Running Back
Derrick Henry
Thanks for the amazing value DraftKings! Henry comes in at only $6,700 in a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who just put J.K. Dobbins back on the map as he ripped off 135 rushing yards on only 10 carries. The combination of Dobbins and Gus Edwards put up the 9th most RB DraftKings points (29.7) in Week 1 with 21 carries. The Raiders are ranked 27th in Stuffed percentage. That isn’t going to go well against Henry who has made a career of running downhill and breaking tackles. I don’t need to rattle off Henry’s stats. We all know what he is capable of. His mid-tier salary is a gift from the fantasy Gods.
If you do decide to go a different route at RB, and fade Henry, you would be wise to get Lamar Jackson in your lineup. One of them is going to have a big, big day.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Panthers got destroyed again on the ground in Week 1. They allowed the second most fantasy points to be scored on them in the league. That’s more than the Broncos (Ken Walker + Zach Charbonnet), Dolphins (James Cook), Rams (Gibbs + Montgomery) and the Bills (De’Von Achane). All this production came from a combination of 5 different New Orleans Saints. Now they face an explosive, elusive back in J.K. Dobbins who just put up the second-most yards after contact (71) in Week 1. The YPC (13.5) for Dobbins is going to be hard to replicate, nonetheless, if he stays healthy, it is a fantastic matchup for him and the Chargers. Gus Edwards is going to be a tougher click, but one that should be highly considered. He is just as likely, if not more so to get the goal line carries. I don’t expect the yardage of Dobbins, but his getting in the endzone more wouldn’t be shocking. If I have to pick one, I won’t get cute with it. I will just take Dobbins again for the chunk play upside.
We also need to realize that the Chargers WR1, Joshua Palmer, is questionable making an already bad receiving core worse.
Jordan Mason
Is it hard to run on the Vikings? It appears so. Is it also hard to run on the Jets? On paper, it should have been much more difficult than the 49ers made it look. Jordan Mason is only $5,200 on DraftKings running behind a phenomenal offensive line. MIN is currently ranked 4th in DVOA against the run, which seems high. Last season they allowed 20.9 DK points per game to RBs, which was middle of the pack. In Week 1 they shut down the Giants run game but the NY Offense as a whole was in shambles. I will bet on the cheap price and talent of SF to at least do enough to exceed value for the discount RB.
Zach Charbonet note:
The Patriots held Zach Moss to fantasy irrelevancy in Week 1, but the running game script got away from the Bengals in a hurry. Charbonnet was very unproductive on the ground (1.5 yards per carry) against a terrible Broncos team. If Week 1 is any indicator, he will get his points in the passing game. He isn’t min-priced, but he is still cheap to roll out as an RB2 or RB3. The Pats did give up the 9th most receptions to backs in 2023 so he has that going for him.
Others to consider for GPP upside/ownership:
- Jonathan Taylor: The Packers got destroyed by Saquan Barkley on TNF in the first game of the season. They allowed the single best combined RB performance of the week (38.4 DK points). Taylor is the highest-priced RB and comes in at only 6% owned. He is a fantastic way to spend up to be contrarian while also fading Anthony Richardson.
- Josh Jacobs: The Packers know they don’t have a chance with Malik Willis helming QB, so their best move is to see what Jacobs has in the tank, in the same matchup the Joe Mixon exploited in Week 1. The Colts should enter the game with a heavy focus on stopping the run, the question is “Are they capable?” Judging from last week, and the previous season, they are not.
- Tony Pollard: This is the matchup that Jordan Mason just had on MNF. Either the matchup is fantastic for running backs, or the 49er’s OLine and Jordan Mason’s talent are elite. One of these things has to be true. I prefer option 2.
- Jerome Ford: Solid running in Week 1 and used in the passing game more than expected.
- Jahmyr Gibbs
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp/Demarcus Robinson
He is coming off a league-leading 21 targets, largely due to Puka Nacua leaving the game early and the game script. This week the Rams take on the Arizona Cardinals. They are ranked 26th in DVOA against the WR1. Kupp will run out of the slot around 60% of the time against Garrett Williams. He will move to the left side of the field for about 26% of snaps against either Sean Murphy-Bunting (1.12 YPRC) or Starling Thomas (1.80 YPRC). On a volume-based approach, which is how you play DFS to a large extent, Kupp will lead the way for the Rams, and maybe the league again in Week 2.
If you are looking at who will have the most positive primary matchup of the game, it is Demarcus Robinson who should be on the left side of the field for around 45% of his snaps. He only costs $4,000 on DraftKings and is a fantastic salary saver. He is a priority if you fade Kupp.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
See Jared Goff’s write-up. He is my favorite receiver on the slate.
Brandon Aiyuk
We have established that the Vikings are perhaps above average against the run. All over the industry, there are conflicting rankings on how good they are against the run, depending on which site you visit. As far as the secondary goes I see the same thing. They played the Giants in Week 1, who are just terrible, so you can’t rely on those stats. I did notice that all three of the Viking’s starting corners ranked in the bottom 50 of YPRC in Week 1, which is not encouraging for their chances moving forward. Brandon Aiyuk is going to get the best on paper matchup against a mix of Shaquill Griffin, Byron Murphy Jr., and Stephon Gilmore. All three corners allowed over a 1.09 YPRC and over 10 air yards per target. Aiyuk has the highest projected target share on the 49ers while also having the second-highest yards-per-route run in Week 1, only behind Tyreek Hill. He is the best pivot off the 49er’s run game when the masses are likely to chase the Deebo game.
Ladd McConkey
This is more of a play if Joshua Palmer is out or limited. He should lead the Chargers in targets against a bad secondary in Carolina.
Others to consider/mix in MME
- CeeDee Lamb
- Malik Nabers: Faces the worst team against WR1 on the slate, but Daniel Jones.
- Xaivor Worthy: Best primary matchup against the Bengals based on air yards and YPRC.
- Tyler Lockett: DK Metcalf is going to be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez.
- DJ Moore
- Luke McCaffrey
- Allen Lazard: Yes his touchdowns were a bit flukey, but the WR2/ 3 for Aaron Rodgers gets the benefit of L’Jarius Sneed shadowing Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams still on a snap count. He is $3,300 on DraftKings.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta
I have already made a case for Goff and the Detroit Lions offense, but I didn’t touch on the tight end. LaPorta gets one of the key matchups of the slate, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Tampa defense is atrocious guarding tight ends. last season they allowed the third most fantasy points to the position (14.9). They gave up the third most receptions and the third most total yards. They were targeted at the highest rate in the league.
Theo Johnson
He is your tight-end salary saver this week. Last week spending down on the guys I wrote up was technically the way to go as every single tight end busted. If that happens again Theo Johnson can do essentially nothing and still be a quality play. But I do expect more than nothing. He played 86% of snaps last week while getting 4 targets. He takes on what could very easily be the worst pass defense in the league. Daniel Jones attempted 7 10+ yard passes, 2 20+ yard passes, and no passes over 30+ yards. This is the tight-end sweet spot, we just need Daniel Jones to show up somewhat in the easiest matchup he will have all season.
Taysom Hill
His price dropped to $3,900 this week. He is coming off 5 rushing attempts and two targets (one that should have been a touchdown). If you knew you were getting that small rushing floor with any tight end, wouldn’t you take it? If you knew they have Taysom RedZone packages wouldn’t you highly consider him? I think you have to when the offseason hype has died down a bit. The Saints steamrolled the Panthers so there was no real incentive to show everything they were capable of with HIll. This game should be much closer, and although the Cowboys have a good defense it is difficult to prepare for what Hill does. Just think about how we think about him as DFS players. We do not know how he is going to score but we know that he is a threat week in and week out. The Saints can disguise how they are going to get Hill the ball, and if he scores a rushing TD you are going to have to have him.
Others to consider:
- Travis Kelce
- Hayden Hurst
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.
