Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 16

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Quarterback Rankings

Michael Penix Jr. 

I am going to be way above the field with Penix Jr. I would expect more of a balanced offense as opposed to just running it 35 times here. If the Falcons wanted to run it down the Giant’s throats they could have easily just let Cousins get another start. What the Falcons want, is a rookie QB to develop confidence going into the final stretch, while they attempt to secure a playoff spot. The Giant’s defense is beat up. They are missing two linebacks and a starting corner. The matchup for his receivers, tight end, and pass-catching backs really couldn’t get much better. At only $4,500 he is basically a lock to exceed value and allows you to do whatever you want with the rest of your roster construction. Reminder last week Mac Jones, at a minimum salary won someone a million dollars, not Josh Allen or Jared Goff, who both went nuclear. 

Other GPP options:

• Baker Mayfield (FanDuel)
• Anthony Richardson
• Aaron Rodgers
• Brock Purdy
• Aiden O’Connell
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson: He will throw it a ton, but only 50% will be accurate

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs

There is a combination of good factors that should benefit Gibbs here. First, there is no David Montgomery so we no longer have to guess who is going to get the goal-line work. Second, Jared Goff has worse splits in outdoor cold weather games, so hopefully NFL’s highest-scoring team leans on the run more. Third, it is in fact a good matchup against the Bears (31st in DVOA against the run). They allow the fifth most fantasy points the RB on the season while being tied with the Carolina Panthers for most rushing TDs allowed (15). Gibbs will be on the majority of my GPP lineups and all of my cash game lineups. 

Patrick Taylor

If you are looking to save some salary, I do not have an issue with Patrick Taylor. He is down to $5,200 and will be the lead back in the 49ers backfield. I do not think this means he gets 20 rushing attempts, but I don’t think that he gets the most out of any 49er who will run the ball. The Dolphins are a beatable matchup (24^th in DVOA against the run). They have allowed 15 total touchdowns to the running back (12 rushing and 3 receiving), which is just as much as the CHI Bears have allowed. Taylor is a guy who can catch the ball out of the outfield so his scoring on a passing play is just as likely as a rushing play. 

Jerome Ford

With Nick Chubb out with a broken foot, Ford is in line to take over the backfield for the Cleveland Browns. He takes on a truly terrible Bengals defense, however, it is almost certain that the Bengals dog-walk the Browns in this one. The only real reason you are interested in Ford is that he can be an asset in the passing game as well. That unfortunately means that we are going to need Dorian Thompson-Robinson to look like a decent NFL quarterback, which could or could not happen. As bad as the Bengals are, I don’t think Ford is closer to bad chalk than good chalk. That being said, it doesn’t mean I am avoiding him in my lineups, it just means I am not starting with him. His salary of $4,800 is very nice, but this is a slate where we are not dying to save salary. 

Tyjae Spears (conditional)

If Tony Pollard is out Spears shoot up the rankings as the best-value RB on the slate. 

Devin Singletary

If Tyrone Tracy is ruled out Singletary will be the lead back for the New York Giants, who should do their best to lean on the run against a poor Atlanta Defense, while they also try to mask their inadequate quarterback. He is $4,500 and would also be an outstanding value. 

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons, who have one of the better 1-2 RB combos in the NFL, could lean on the run more here with rookie Michael Penix Jr. getting the start at QB against the New York Giants. The Giants are bad both defending the run and the pass, plus they are dealing with significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Bijan Robinson has been automatic recently and is a great bet for cash games. Tyler Allgeier is a guy that pops every now and then and don’t hate taking a shot on him in the Milly Maker. Allgeier makes more sense if fading both Robinson and Penix Jr. 

De’Von Achane

Remember the days when the DFS industry said the Achane was the second-best pass catcher on the Dolphins? What happened to that? It seems like he is being overlooked against a 49ers team that is particularly good at stopping the run. In terms of fantasy points allowed, they are worse than the Raiders, Bengals, Rams, and Titans. With Jaylen Waddle out, and maybe even Tyreek Hill, perhaps we get a little more out of Achane in the pass It isn’t like Achane really needs more receiving opportunities as he has averaged 8 targets in the last three games while also being the Dolphins RB1. He was everyone’s favorite RB at the beginning of the season and since he hasn’t dropped 20 in a couple weeks people are looking the other direction. He is worth a few shots on your DFS lineups. 

Others to consider: 

I can’t make a case against any of these guys and will be mixing them in MME. 

• Saquan Barkley: Outstanding, but you don’t need a write-up to play Barkley if you can fit him
• Chase Brown
• James Cook
• Jonathan Taylor
• Aaron Jones

Best Values (High-risk high-reward options)

• Craig Reynolds 
• Ray Davis: If it isn’t Josh Allen or James Cook, it is Ray Davis. He could also get significant blowout run in this one.

Wide Receiver (not in order of preference)

On FanDuel I would make it a point to get to Mike Evans. Jalen McMillian also grades out as having the best primary CB matchup of the week, for any team. 

Cooper Kupp

For the second time in his career, Cooper Kupp well held to zero catches in a game last week. Throw that out because that is the outlier, not the new normal. In three of his last four games, he has eclipsed 20 DK points, and that would be plenty here at a salary of only $6,500. Kupp runs primarily out of the slot, meaning he will avoid Sauce Gardner more than Puka Nacua (not that Gardner has been fantastic this season). Kupp still has a massive target share (29.1%), which is still the second-best on the slate, only behind his teammate Nacua. The Jets rank 27th against the WR1 and 18th against the WR2. With the target share of each of these receivers, I do think the terms WR1 and WR2 here are interchangeable. 

To be clear, if I have the salary I prefer Nacua, but Kupp is too cheap and you can even double-stack him with Stafford and Nacua. 

Seattle Seahawks

I really want a piece of the passing game here. The receivers across the board are underpriced and the matchup is beatable in the last home game of the season for Seattle. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been thriving and draws the slot matchup against Byron Murphy Jr. The season is almost over and we have seen JSN take over the alpha role so we might as well accept it now. That being said, I am also taking some shots on D.K. Metcalf at $5,500. He has the next best matchup facing off against Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gilmore on the outside. These once elite corners are no longer and can be beaten. This is proven by the Vikings giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers, per game, on the season (42.8). 

Deebo Samuel

MIA is 26^th against the WR1 and 21^st against the WR2. 

I don’t care how bad he has been, Deebo is down to $5,200 on DraftKings. The 49ers are not playing for anything, but Samuel is playing to redeem himself and dropping what would have been a walk-in touchdown last week. Samuel moves all over the field, at a pretty even rate, so there are no primary matchups to break down. Miami has been better in the past of late but is still 21^st in DVOA against the position. Samuel will also get some designed runs out of the backfield, perhaps more than normal with the 49ers being down to their depth chart RB5 from the beginning of the season. 

Jakobi Meyers

He should be a target monster again with Aidan O’Connell back starting at QB. He and Brock Bowers will get fed through the air, but of course, we need a touchdown out of whoever we start. The Jaguars are traveling from Jacksonville to spend the weekend in Las Vegas while playing for nothing. You do have to wonder how motivated they will be to put their best foot forward. On top of that, they have been terrible against the pass all season long. They are tied for the second most fantasy points allowed per game to the WR position (40.3). We also have O’Connel who is playing for a starting job next season. If we can string together a few impressive outings he may win the job to open next season (given they don’t draft a QB). 

The New York Jets 

This is the third week in a row I have written up the New York Jets. This is a high game total, against a poor Rams secondary. Last week it was Davante Adams, but this week the best CB matchup goes to Garrett Wilson, who happens to be cheaper. Adams runs slightly more slot routes, while Wilson runs slightly more on the right side of the field. That matches him up with Darius Williams who is the Ram’s worst cover corner based on YPRC (1.20).

Atlanta Falcons

I am not making it a point to get a Falcons receiver, but if you do want to stack up the dirty birds, the matchup on paper makes a ton of sense. The Giants are ranked 30^th against the WR1, 18^th against the WR2, and 31st against the WR3. There is no primary matchup for any Falcons receiver as they all move all over the field while splitting slot snaps. The Giant’s secondary looks terrible. They have two of the bottom five corners on the slate, that allow the most YPRR. Starter Greg Stroman, who will play mostly in the slot, was ruled out. The Giants will also be missing two linebackers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

The way to attack the Bears is to play the receivers that avoid Jaylon Johnson. This week is St. Brown (53% slot routes) and Tim Patrick. I don’t love playing Goff’s weapons with his poor home/road/outdoor/cold weather splits-but those would be the guys to use if you want a piece of the Lions receivers. 

Tyreek Hill

He is currently questionable. If he is in, I love him. The Q tag will keep ownership low, in a game where Jaylen Waddle is already ruled out, at a deflated salary of $6,900. If he is ruled out then you run to get as much Malik Washington as you can. Jonnu Smith and DeVon Achane would also get significantly better. 

Others to consider: There are a ton of midrange receivers to like this week. 

• Ja’Marr Chase: He has the best WR1 matchup on the slate (CLE 31^st against the WR1-you just worry about blowout)
• Malik Nabers
• Devonta Smith 
• Josh Downs
• Keenan Allen: Honestly all the Bears receivers are underpriced, but Allen popped off against the same team on Thanksgiving, and DET has been hit hard with the injury bug. 
• Brian Thomas Jr
• Tim Patrick 
• Malik Washington 
• Jalen Coker

Tight End 

Best Spend up: Trey McBride

Best Value: Brenton Strange

The Cleveland Browns

If you know me you know that I will be targetting the Bengals at the tight end position. This week we have a unique opportunity to perhaps get David Njoku as a low-owned spend up (due to his Q tag), or spend down and get his Jordan Akins (who would start if he is out), at only $3,200. The Bengals are the worst team against the TE in the league, and much of that production has been coming lately to average players. They give up 17.1 DK points per game to the position while giving up the second most receptions only behind the Denver Broncos. 

Others to consider:

• Jonnu Smith
• George Kittle
• Brock Bowers

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.