David Jones 
Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield
Per last season, load up a quarterback against the Washington Commanders. They were ranked dead last in DVOA (per FTN data), against the position. The opposing teams perceived WR1 did the most damage to the Commanders (as they rank 32nd against the position) giving up the most yardage per game. Through 17 Weeks the Commanders gave up the most total yards to all receivers combined, and the most receiving TDs (29) while being targeted at only the 11th-highest rate. Mayfield found his stride at the end of last season, and now the Bucs add a talented receiver in Jalen McMillian. Add that to the already dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as well as pass-catching back Rachaad White and you have yourself a serious air attack, if the Bucs O-Line can keep Baker clean.
There will be more on the individual receiving matchups in the Wide Receiver section below.
Justin Fields note
This is conditional if Fields were to start.
It is only a Week 1 and we might already might have a min-priced Justin Fields going up against a poor defensive line, with a much-improved secondary, in his hometown of Atlanta. With what Fields can do with his legs, and this week’s pricing, I don’t think playing him naked or paring him with George Pickens is out of the question. The main concern is how Arthur Smith will manage to screw up his rushing upside. The $5,000 price tag must be seriously considered if you find it necessary to spend up at other positions.
Others to consider:
- Josh Allen
- Trevor Lawrence
- Geno Smith (if fading Kenneth Walker)
- I am fading the rookie QB’s until they get a few games under their belt
Running Back
Kenneth Walker
The Denver Broncos should have one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL. They are filled with inexperience and unreliable commodities, outside of Zach Allen. In 2023 were the second-worst team vis DVOA against the run, only behind the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks revamped their offensive line adding Connor Williams who was in Miami last season (and we all know what the Dolphins run game did to the Broncos). Kenneth Walker is a reliable volume back with slate winning upside at only $6,100 on DraftKings. While the Seahawks are poised to pass more under Ryan Grubbs’s offensive scheme, they should still put the rock in Walker’s chest enough times to stack up some yards and score once, or twice, especially if Geno struggles. One way or another, you want to be invested in the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday.
Devin Singletary
This is a GPP play. The Vikings are set up to be one of the worst defenses stopping the run this season. They made zero moves in the offseason to suggest that they will not be at the bottom of the pack this year. Devin Singletary is an unquestioned all-purpose bell cow for the New York Giants. Last season, Singletary was on an offense that thrived through the air in the Houston Texans, and he was not often asked to carry to workload. He got 20+ carries in 4 games last year and in those contests averaged 21.6 DK points. At a salary of $5,700, that would be enough from a low-owned, pass-catching running back. The main issue is seeing how a revamped, healthy Giants O’Line will perform. I think they can exceed their low expectations, especially in positive matchups like the one they see this Sunday.
Rachaad White
I am higher on the passing game as you will see when you complete this article. If you were to fade the pass game completely I think you HAVE to play White.
Jonathan Taylor Note:
JT has played against the Houston Texans 6 times. He averages 135 rush yards, 22.7 carries, and 6 YPC, per game. During that span, he has 7 rushing TDs (not that last year’s stats will be this stats. Oddly enough the Houston Texans were ranked 2nd in DVOA against the run in 2023 giving up the 13th last fantasy points on the ground. The matchup doesn’t say “Play Taylor”, but the history, if you are into that kind of thing, certainly does.
Others to consider:
- Bijan Robinson
- Rachaad White (if fading the passing game I would certainly)
- James Cook
- Aaron Jones
- J.K. Dobbins (best “punt”, I’m just not so sure you need a “punt” on this slate).
Update: Adding Joe Mixon to the pool.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill
He is going to score at least one TD and drop over 100 yards because that’s what Tyreek Hill does. That should be enough on a Week 1 slate with plenty of value to fill in around him. You would be wise to get some Hill so you don’t feel like a complete bozo when he takes a 70-yarder to the house in the first quarter. There is no need to overthink this one. I know he will be highly owned, so just take the points and know you beat half the field already when he starts to go nuclear. You can’t control everyone else lineup, you can only control yours. And your job is to put up points.
Not that it matters that much with Hill but the Dolphins should struggle more this season to run the ball judging by the changes they made to the offensive line. The Jaguars secondary is also the softest spot on their defense. It will not be easy to run on them this season but throwing over the top on Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby is something that Tua and Reek should be able to accomplish with little resistance.
Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans draws the best primary matchup against Michael Davis, who allowed 1.52 YPRC in 2023, the most of the Commander’s worst-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Commanders were also ranked dead last in DVOA covering the WR1 in 2023. Evans is the priority.
Chris Godwin will slide in behind in also a favorable spot, and much lower ownership aside from full team stacks. He should still take a good chunk of the slot snaps (more on that below). He didn’t flash slate-winning upside last season, yet he is in one of the best spots you can be in as an NFL receiver. Dan Quinn is taking over the Washington defense, and they will be improved over the next couple of seasons, yet they don’t appear to have the bodies quite yet.
Jalen McMillan is a true slot receiver who will get his first career start lining up primarily against rookie Mike Sainristil, the slot corner from Michigan who is no slouch. I would project Godwin to also get a fair split of the slot snaps, but we need to see how it all plays out on the field in Week 1. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are sure to draw Dan Quinn’s new defense eye over the somewhat forgotten Washington Huskies product. McMillon is a boom-or-bust option, who likely scores most of his production off a big play, not a huge volume.
Andrei Iosiavas
All of the Bengals receivers get a bump with Tee Higgins out clearly. Ja’Marr Chase is still undetermined and will draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, who is very talented. No, he can’t “stop” Chase, but can he limit the stud wide receiver who has hardly practiced at all and may not be in peak game shape? Yes, he can to some extent. He has proven so in the first 4 games of last season, before he got injured, winning Defensive Rookie of the Month.
Iosaivas will line up in the slot primarily. If the preseason lack of playing time in the preseason is any indication, the Bengals are highly confident in him. He was also reported to have a phenomenal camp where he developed even more chemistry with Joe Burrow. Iosiavas was a sleeper last season but never saw/earned the opportunity. Those times appear to have changed with Tyler Boyd now on the Titans and Tee Higgins sitting this one out.
I just want to clarify, this isn’t me saying fade Chase, this is me saying the Iosiavas is a steal at only $3,000.
Jakobi Meyers or Davante Adams
Someone is going to have a good day on the Raiders but I am having a hard time putting my finger on which guy, perhaps because I like them both.
WR1 Davante Adams runs about 50% of his routes on the left, where Asante Samuel will be, and 33% of his routes on the right where Kristian Fulton will be. Fulton gave up the most production last season (1.49 YPRC) and the most air yards (13.2). Fulton had the 7th worst Yards Per Route run coverage out of all active corners that are returning to a starting position this season. The Chargers overall were ranked 27th against WR1 while being ranked 23rd against the WR2. They were sneaky good at covering the TE, at times, which is making me rethink my Brock Bowers love (only for one week).
Jakobi Meyers is so intriguing here at only $5,000. He will just be flip-flopping sides with Adams, as well as taking around 25% of the slot snaps. He will get the same soft coverage while being only 1% owned. This is a guy who had double-digit targets in 5 games last season, with a ceiling of 29.1 DraftKings points. A lot has been made about how Gardner Minshew “made” Michael Pittman last season, but let’s not forget he also helped get WR2 Josh Downs off the ground. Meyers is much more developed than Downs and has plenty of underrated upside this Sunday.
Terry McLaurin
He will move all over the field drawing coverage from Jamal Dean (1,28 YPRC), Zyon McCollum (1.03 YPRC), and the rookie from Georgia Tykee Smith. Tampa Bay was ranked 25th against the WR1 in 2023 while having the 14th-best passing defense via DVOA. Scary Terry’s DraftKings price tag of only $5,600 is downright mispriced for his upside in this matchup.
Chris Olave
He is coming in a bit under the radar. He takes on a Carolina team that was bottom 10 in defense efficiency against the pass. He moves all over the field seeing Jaycee Horn, who gives up the most air yards per target (12), Troy Hill in the slot, who gives up the most YPRC (1,26), and rookie Mike Jackson. Olave commands a 26% target share, which is top 10 in the league. With the uncertainties about “vultures” in the rush game for the Saints, it is tough to press the button on Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill, but the passing game is quite clear. Olave is that dude.
Others to consider/mix in MME
- Adam Thielen
- Drake London
- Malik Nabers
- Khalil Shakir
- Jerry Jeudy
- DK Metcalf
Tight End
Best Spend up: Dalton Kincaid
Zach Ertz
This is a cheap GPP play that I have tried to talk myself out of, yet it makes too much sense to completely avoid. The forgotten vet tight end, Zach Ertz, is healthy and reuniting with Cliff Kingsbury, who helped prop him up to a fantasy tight end stud in seasons past. In Ertz’s last Week 1 with Kingsbury as his HC, he got 10 targets from Joshua Dobbs. Ertz isn’t in Washington by chance, Kingsbury wanted him there to be a reliable veteran presence in the locker room and for rookies Jayden Daniels and TE2 Ben Sinnott.
The opposing Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave up the single most targets to the TE position in the 2023 regular season. They will be facing a rookie quarterback who may be forced to check it down more than while he was in LSU because his receiver room actually got a downgrade from what he is used to in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. There is also a small chance of wind and rain around the Stadium on Sunday. That is just something we have to keep an eye on. At this point, it doesn’t appear to be much of a factor if any. There are a lot of DFS players that are targeting this game, yet I have not heard Ertz’s name mentioned once. He is coming in at 1% owned while being $3,600 on DraftKings.
Ja’Tavon Sanders
Due to injuries, the starting tight end for the Carolina Panthers, Ja’Tavon Sanders, is only $2,500 on DraftKings. Look, we all know the quarterback play isn’t going to be great, but it is still not going to be easy to run on the Saints so the Panthers are going to not have much of a choice but to throw it maybe more than they are comfortable with. The Saints allowed the third most passing touchdowns to tight ends last year on the 19thmost targets to the position. What the Longhorns product has going for him is he is a big body with fantastic hands. His after-the-catch burst leaves something to be desired but is excels in getting separation and coming down with the ball. At only $2,500, if this guy scores you are going to be set up in a big way if you hop on the train early.
Brock Bowers
I am incredibly intrigued with Bowers as a prospect as well as how much they moved him around in the preseason scheming to get him open. If you are unfamiliar with his game just go watch the preseason and college highlights and you will immediately become a believer. The only issue is the lingering foot issue for a guy who struggled with injuries in college. His breakout is going to come, given he stays healthy, so if you are making multiple lineups, and don’t have any other Raiders, it might be wise to get ahead of the field on him before the price tag rises. If he stays healthy, he will be a top 4 TE by the end of the season.
Others to consider:
- Taysom Hill
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.
