Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Wild Card weekend continues with a bang as the Commanders take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Washington Commanders

Running Backs

• Tampa Bay is giving up 20.2 DK per game (8th Fewest).
• They have allowed 1238 rushing yards (4th Fewest).
• They have allowed 661 receiving yards (5th Most).

The main guy for the Commanders is Brian Robinson Jr who has been the leader in rushing attempts (187), yards (799), rushing touchdowns (8), and snaps played (505). When these two teams met in the opening weekend of the NFL season, Robinson had 40 rushing yards and was able to find the end zone, while also adding 49 yards receiving. The Bucs run defense has not given up 40 or more rushing yards in the last four games.

Austin Ekeler came back in Week 18 after missing the previous four games and led all running backs with 35 snaps played. I think he is in a great spot here against Tampa. They are allowing 38.9 receiving yards to opposing running backs, and Ekeler leads all Commander running backs with 366 receiving yards (30.5/game). I prefer BRob over Ekeler but I would not be against running both in a lineup or using Ekeler as a value play in a Washington passing attack lineup.

Tier 1: Brian Robinson Jr

Tier 2: Austin Ekeler

Punt/Fade: Jeremy McNichols

Wide Receiver

• The Bucs have allowed 2659 yards to opposing wide receivers (7th Most).
• They are giving up 37.3 DK (6th Most).

On paper, Olamide Zaccheus has the best matchup. He is coming off a decent game, but he has proven throughout the last four weeks that he will be involved in the Commander’s passing game. He should also be on the field for almost all offensive snaps. For a large portion of the game, he will be avoiding Jamel Dean, who is the Buc’s best cover corner.Dean should see Terry McLaurin for the majority of his routes. Terry is the Commander’s best receiver so having to go up against Dean shouldn’t impact his production too much.

After their top two guys, the Commanders have three receivers who have played significant snaps this season. Of the three, Jamison Crowder and Dyami Brown were the two that had the most success when they were in the game. Which ever of the two is in with Zaccheus and McLaurin should see the Buc’s worse corner, Tykee Smith. I won’t force either into my lineups but they are both in play as punts.

Tier 1: Olamide Zaccheus, Terry McLaurin

Tier 2: Jamison Crowder, Dyami Brown

Fade/DeepPunt: Luke McCaffrey

Tight End

• The Bucs have given 1144 receiving yards to tight ends (2nd Most).
• They are giving up 14.6 DK (7th Most).

Zach Ertz is my favorite Commander’s Player for Showdown. Tampa has struggled to contain opposing tight ends, allowing 14 different tight ends to reach 40 receiving yards this season. In his first matchup against the Bucs Ertz had three receptions for 28 yards. At his price, you can easily fit him in almost every lineup.

John Bates and Ben Sinnott both play snaps every game but even though Tampa struggles against tight ends, neither endup on the game log most games so I am not using either unless it is in a 150max.

Tier 1: Zach Ertz

Punt/Fade: John Bates, Ben Sinnott 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Running Back

• Washington is giving up 23.1 DK per game (14th Most).
• They have allowed 1935 rushing yards (4th Most).
• They have allowed 387 receiving yards (Fewest).

I am locking in Bucky Irving into every lineup I can, he is my favorite Tampa Bay player on the slate. He is the top running back on the Bucs roster, leading the team with 1122 rushing yards and right rushing touchdowns. The Commanders are allowing the fourth most rushing yards to running backs and with how Irving closed this season he should be in for a big game. 

Last week in a must win game for the Bucs, Sean Tucker and Rachaad White played a combined 23 snaps and only had two total touches (both by Tucker). Based on that, I am not prioritizing either of these players and would only really use them as deep punts.

Tier 1: Bucky Irving

FADE/Punt: Sean Tucker, Rachaad White

Wide Receiver

• The Commanders have given up 2427 receiving yards to wide receivers (13th Fewest).
• They are giving up 32.7 DK to receivers (10th Fewest).

On paper, Mike Evans has the worst matchup. He is coming off a game where he broke 1000 receiving yards for the 11th straight year. He will be on the field for almost all offensive snaps. For a large portion of the game, he will have to take on Marshon Lattimore, who is the Commander’s best cover corner. These two have a lot of history so I expect both of them to play very physically but I am taking the future Hall of Fame wide receiver to get the better of the corner.

Their rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan has broken out the past five games where he has at least five targets and four receptions in all five games. He gets a much easier matchup than Evans, as he should see Mike Sainristil who has been the worst corner for the Commanders. Sainristil is allowing the most fantasy points (.27) and yards (1.21) per route run. Evans has the higher ceiling but I do like McMillan a lot so I’ll have at least one of them in every Tampa heavy lineup.

Sterling Sheppard is the WR3 for Tampa. He played 63% of the snaps in Tampa’s Week 18 win over the Saints and should see a similar snap percentage on Sunday against the Commanders. While he gets a good matchup against Noah Igbinoghene, I am not overly using Sheppard even at his price. He is clearly the third wide receiver and with Otton returning he becomes the fourth option. Use him if you need salary in a SE/3Max but reserver him for larger contests if you don’t need his savings.

Tier 1: Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan

Tier 2: Sterling Sheppard

Punt: Ryan Miller, Trey Palmer, Rakim Jarrett

Tight End

• The Commanders have given up 678 receiving yards to tight ends (5th Fewest).
• They are allowing 10.9 DK per game (10th Fewest).

Cade Otton is returning after missing the previous three games. He gets a tough matchup against a Commanders passing defense that has only allowed five tight ends to reach the 50 yard mark. In the first meeting Otton only had one receptionsfor five yards. I will still have some Otton in my lineups but I would rather prioritize using one of the receiver or Irving over Otton as well as using Ertz over him.

With how good the Commanders are I will not be using any other tight end other than Otton. 

Tier 1: Cade Otton

Tier 2: Payne Durham, Devin Culp

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Bucky Irving
• Zach Ertz
• Jayden Daniels
• Mike Evans
• Baker Mayfield
• Terry McLaurin
• Jalen McMillan
• Olamide Zaccheaus
• Austin Ekeler
• Chase McLaughlin
• Cade Otton
• Brian Robinson Jr
• Zane Gonzalez

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Tampa Bay D/ST
• Washington D/ST
• Rachaad White
• Sean Tucker
• Dyami Brown
• Jamison Crowder
• Jeremy McNichols
• Luke McCaffrey
• Rakim Jarrett

Favorite props for the game:

• Austin Ekeler Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)/ 25+ (-105)
• Bucky Irving Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-115)/ 90+ (-105)/ 100+ (+135)