Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

Week 16 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Buccaneers take on the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Running Backs

• Dallas is giving up 24.7 DK per game (11th Most).
• They have allowed 1331 rushing yards (16th Most).
• They have allowed 543 receiving yards (9th Most).

I am locking in at least one of Bucky Irving or Rachaad White in every lineup. I prefer Irving of the two, but I am making them both a priority this week. The Cowboys have not been good against running backs, giving up over 100 yards six times this season. They have also given up at least 40 receiving yards to opposing running backs seven times this season. The Bucs’ top two running backs are averaging a combined over 40 yards in the passing game this season.

Sean Tucker is the Bucs’ RB3, and while he has had a couple of okay games, I am not looking at using him this week. He has only 15 touches over the past four weeks, which is less than what Irving and White are averaging in those four weeks per game. Unless Irving or White are ruled out for some reason prior to kick-off, I’ll leave Tucker as a 150-max punt only.

Tier 1: Bucky Irving, Rachaad White

Tier 2: Sean Tucker

Wide Receiver

• The Cowboys have allowed 2203 yards to opposing wide receivers (8th Most).
• They are giving up 35.9 DK (10th Most).

Just like with the Bucs running game I am prioritizing at least one of Tampa’s top receivers this week.

The clear WR1 for the Bucs is the future Hall of Famer, Mike Evans. He leads all Tampa wide receivers by a large margin in fantasy points (.59) and yards (2.44) per route ran. He gets a good matchup against the Cowboy’s DaRon Bland. Bland is allowing the second most fantasy points (.26) and yards (.92) per route. But even if he had a great matchup I would like because he is one of the most consistent players in the NFL. 

The Buccaneer wide receiver with the best matchup is Jalen McMillan. McMillan is going to see a lot of Amani Oruwariye who is allowing a league high .5 fantasy points and yards 2.52 per route. The rookie wide receiver has seen 18 targets over the past four weeks which is behind Evans (34) and Shepard (21). 

Shepard is in play as the third Bucs wide receiver but based on his matchup being the toughest of the three he is third on my list of priority. He has seen 49% of the Bucs snaps over the last four weeks so if you need a value play he is a great option.

Tier 1: Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan

Tier 2: Sterling Shepard

Punts/Fades: Trey Palmer, Rakim Jarrett

Tight End

• The Cowboys have given 602 receiving yards to tight ends (8th Fewest).
• They are giving up 10.9 DK (11th Fewest).

The Bucs are going to be without their starting tight end, Cade Otton. For the most part I am fading the tight ends from Tampa, but I will try to fit in Payne Durham into a couple of lines as he is only $200 on DraftKings. He leads all active Tampa tight ends in snaps and targets. At $200 he only need a catch to hit value.

Ko Kieft and Devin Culp have seen snaps this season but neither has a target so even at min price it’s hard to throw them into a lineup outside of a 150max.

Tier 1: Payne Durham

Punt/Fade: Ko Kieft, Devin Culp 

Dallas Cowboys

Running Back

• TB is giving up 22.3 DK per game (12th Fewest).
• They have allowed 1130 rushing yards (6th Fewest).
• They have allowed 599 receiving yards (4th Most).

This is going to be a difficult game for Rico Dowdle to find running lanes, given how good the Bucs have been at stopping the run. But I still like Dowdle for Showdown as over the past four games he seems to have found his form. He is averaging 119.5 yards over the past four weeks, including rushing for over 110 in each of the last three. Dowdle is my second favorite Dallas player on the slate, we will get to my first further below.

Ezekiel Elliott and Hunter Luepke are the two Dallas running backs who have seen the most snaps after Dowdle. Luepke is the one who sees the field the most of the two, but Elliott has had more touches (48:8) since the Week 7 despite playing 57 less snaps. Elliott is the better play of the two, he has been getting the carries when Dowdle heads to the sidelines.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 1: Ezekiel Elliott

FADE/Punt: Hunter Luepke

Wide Receiver

• The Bucs have given up 2156 receiving yards to wide receivers (12th Most).
• They are giving up 36.7 DK to receivers (7th Most).

It’s Week 16 you don’t need me to tell you to play CeeDee Lamb. He is the best wide receiver on the Cowboys and unlessprime Ronde Barber is walking out of the tunnel, Lamb’s matchup shouldn’t matter too much.

Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert lead the rest Cowboy wide receivers in snaps over the past three weeks. Tolbert gets the easier matchup of the two on paper as Zyon McCollum is allowing more FPRR and YPRR than Jamel Dean who will be on Cooks for large portions of this game. I do prefer Tolbert over Cooks based on matchup and price.

KaVontae Turpin who is the WR4 on the Cowboys might be worth a punt for Showdown. He doesn’t get too many snaps per game (15.6) but when he does play they use him in both the running and passing game. He also has the potential to score off of a kick return like he did against the Commanders. His $3000 price on DraftKings makes him slightly more difficult to fit in than other punts but he is worth a look if the salary works.

Tier 1: CeeDee Lamb

Tier 2: Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert

Punt: KaVontae Turpin

Tight End

• The Bucs have given up 974 receiving yards to tight ends (2nd Most).
• They are allowing 15.1 DK per game (6th Most).

I mentioned earlier than Dowdle was my second favorite Dallas play, the player I have ahead of him is Jake Ferguson. His price plus Tampa’s struggles against tight ends makes him one of the better plays on the slate. He hasn’t had the same success the last two weeks since coming back from injury, but that should change this week. Since Week 3 the Bucs have allowed over 50 yards in every game to tight ends. 

Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford are the only other two Cowboy tight ends who have seen a significant amountof snaps. I don’t think either is in play as in the last two games, Ferguson has six more targets than the two combined. Neither should be in your player pool unless you are maxing out large entry contest.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2: Luke Schoonmaker, Brevyn Spann-Ford

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Mike Evans
• CeeDee Lamb
• Rico Dowdle
• Jake Ferguson
• Bucky Irving
• Jalen McMillan
• Rachaard White
• Baker Mayfield
• Cooper Rush
• Chase McLaughlin
• Brandon Aubrey

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Bucs D/ST
• Cowboys D/ST
• Brandin Cooks
• Jalen Tolbert
• KaVontae Turpin
• Sterling Shepard
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Sean Tucker
• Luke Schoonmaker
• Brevyn Spann-Ford
• Hunter Luepke
• Rakim Jarrett
• Payne Durham
• Ko Kieft

Favorite prop for the game: Jake Ferguson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)