Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills

Week 13 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the 49ers take on the Bills at Orchard Park in Orchard Park, New York. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

San Francisco 49ers

Running Back

• The Bills have given up 1069 rushing yards (16th Most in NFL)
• They have given up 558 receiving yards to running backs (Most)
• Giving up 28.5 DK to running backs (3rd Most)

I am locking in Christian McCaffrey in all my lineups for Showdown this week, he is my favorite non-quarterback on the slate. With Purdy dealing with an injury and being listed as Questionable for the game, I expect the Niners to use McCaffrey more this week. The Bill’s defense is set up for McCaffrey to be successful, they are allowing the most receiving yards which is something McCaffrey excels at as he has the fifth most receiving yards by a running back the last two years even with missing portions of the year with injuries. In his three games back from injury McCaffrey has 132 receiving yards and 149 rushing yards. The only worrying part about McCaffrey is his struggles finding the end zone, hehas failed to score in his last four regular season games.

Before Week 10 Jordan Mason would be an amazing play as he was near the top in rushing yards while McCaffrey was out. But now that CMC has returned I want nothing to do with Mason. He has played a total of 14 snaps (8%) since McCaffrey has returned and I can’t see any route for him to see an uptick in workload unless CMC suffers another injury or this game gets ugly early.

The one “running back” I would think about using from the Niners besides CMC is Kyle Juszczyk. He is not a player I would force into a lineup but if you have the salary to plug him in as a last man I would strongly consider it. He has played at least 37% of the snaps every game this season and has found the end zone once. He is a clear punt but someone I would have if playing a lot of lineups.

Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey

Tier 2: Kyle Juszczyk

FADE: Jordan Mason

Wide Receiver

• The Bills have allowed 1441 yards to opposing wide receivers (4th Fewest).
• They are giving up 29.8 DK (8th Fewest).

The Bills have been great against opposing wide receivers in fantasy this season. So while I do like two of the Niners wide receivers, they are behind McCaffrey in my list of who I want to build with. My main wider receiver target for the Niners is going to be Jauan Jennings. He leads the Niners with 65 targets (7.2/game) and is only behind tight end Kittle for the team lead in receptions and yards. With Aiyuk being out he has stepped up as a solid receiving option for Purdy. Jennings will also get the easiest matchup of the top three Niner wide receivers. He should see Taron Johnson for the majority of the game. Johnson is getting up a team-high in yards (1.5) and fantasy (.33) per route defended. Jennings is the leader for both on the Niners with 2.49 yards and .53 fantasy points.

The other Niner wide receiver that I like for Showdown is Deebo Samuel. Samuel is averaging 6.1 touches per game thanks to being used in the run game as well as the passing game. He has struggled to reach the end zone which is why I do prefer Jennings over him. He should have to deal with Rasul Douglas during the game who has been ok this season, heis allowing .22 fantasy points and .9 yards per route defended, meanwhile, Samuel is averaging 1.86 yards and .33 fantasy points. 

I am just about fading Ricky Pearsall. He has had some good games this season but his matchup against Christian Benford is not one I want to attack. Benford is tied with Patrick Surtain for the lowest fantasy points allowed with .12 per route and is only behind Surtain in yards allowed only allowing .02 more. There are better options in the lower midrange than Pearsall.

Tier 1: Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel

Punts/Fades: Ricky Pearsall, Chris Conley

Tight End

• The Bills have given 491 receiving yards to tight ends (9th Fewest).
• They are giving up 14.6 DK (7th Most).

George Kittle is one of my favorite Niner players for Showdown. He leads the team in every stat except for targets where he is only six behind Jennings. With the weather looking like it will be an issue for deeper shots Kittle can make use ofshorter routes to help move the ball down the field. He’ll act as the wide receiver three with Pearsall having such a difficult matchup. 

The only other option for the Niners at tight end is Eric Saubert who isn’t viable for fantasy. Saubert has only seen seven targets this season with only two coming after Week 3. Unless you are maxing out the 150s he is a complete fade.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Punt/Fade: Eric Saubert 

Buffalo Bills

Running Back

• SF is giving up 24.5 DK per game (12th Most).
• They have allowed 948 rushing yards (10th Fewest).
• They have allowed 379 receiving yards (14th Most).

Despite playing fewer snaps than Ty Johnson against the Chiefs in their last game, this is still the James Cook show in Buffalo. Cook played six fewer snaps than Johnson against the Chiefs but he was still the most productive running back rushing nine times for two touchdowns. SF has been good against running backs this season, but just like the Bills, they have struggled to stop running backs from catching the ball out of the backfield. They are allowing 4.6 receptions for 34.5 to running backs and Cook is averaging 2.5 receptions for 18.2 yards. I’m expecting a lot more check-downs with the potential of terrible weather.

As for the other two running backs for Buffalo, I am not the biggest fan of either for Showdown. Johnson was given the most snaps last game and he did nothing and Ray Davis doesn’t play enough snaps when Cook is active. He has not played above 31% of the Bills snaps when Cook is playing. But if you are looking for a punt under 3K Davis can work. Like I said he doesn’t get too many snaps but at that price, he doesn’t need too much.

Tier 1: James Cook

FADE/Punt: Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

Wide Receiver

• The 49ers have given up 1501 receiving yards to wide receivers (6th Fewest).
• They are giving up 31.1 DK to receivers (10th Fewest).

Just like with the Niners, there are two main wide receivers that I want to focus on for Showdown. The first one and my favorite is Khalil Shakir. He leads the Bills in every statistical category except touchdowns where he is only one behind leaders Hollins and Coleman. On top of being the best wide receiver for the Bills, Shakir is also getting the best matchup against Deommodore Lenoir. Lenior has given up a team-high YPRR of 1.12 and an FPRR of .23, both of which Shakir leads the Bills in with 2.34 YPRR and .5 FPRR. 

The second Bills wide receiver that I am targeting is Amari Cooper. There is not much difference between his matchup against Yiadom and Coleman’s matchup against Charvarius Ward, but I have more faith in Cooper than I do the rookie Coleman. Cooper is only averaging 3.3 targets in his first three games since being traded from Cleveland but with the bye week, he should see an uptick with his extra week of practice. 

I still like Coleman this week, his price being the third lowest of the top Bills wide receivers is great. He has been averaging four targets and 2.4 receptions per game so he is a good midrange play if you can’t get to Cooper. 

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper

Tier 2: Keon Coleman

Punt: Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins

Tight End

• The 49ers have given up 384 receiving yards to tight ends (2nd Fewest).
• They are allowing 9.6 DK per game (6th Fewest).

The Bills will be without their starting tight end Dalton Kincaid against the Niners so Dawson Knox will get his second start of the year. Before the bye, Knox started against the Chiefs where he saw six targets and finished the game with four receptions for 40 yards. I like Knox at his price, but he is not a priority for me. With how good the Niners have been against the tight ends I would rather prioritize players like Cook and Shakir instead. But that is not to say I wouldn’t have lineups with him, he is priced just below the kickers who might have difficulty kicking if the weather forecast stays the way it is projected. 

Backup tight ends; Quintin Morris and Zach Davidson are a complete fade for me. Neither has had any significant work this season even in the game Kincaid was out. In SE and 3max they shouldn’t be near your lineups.

Tier 1: Dawson Knox

Punt/Fade: Quintin Morris and Zach Davidson

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Josh Allen
• Christian McCaffrey
• James Cook
• Jauan Jennings
• Brock Purdy
• Deebo Samuel
• George Kittle
• Khalil Shakir
• Amari Cooper
• Keon Coleman

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Kyle Juszczyk
• 49ers D/ST
• Bills D/ST
• Jake Moody
• Tyler Bass
• Ricky Pearsall
• Curtis Samuel
• Mack Hollins
• Ty Johnson
• Ray Davis
• Jordan Mason
• Quintin Morris

Favorite prop for the game: Christian McCaffrey Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-120)