Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Week 8 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Colts take on the Vikings at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Indianapolis Colts

Running Back

• The Vikings have given up 538 rushing yards (4th fewest in NFL)
• They have given up 255 receiving yards to running backs (16th fewest)
• Giving up 21.5 DK to running backs (11th fewest)

There is only one running back from the Colts that I want to roster for showdowns, and that is Jonathan Taylor. After missing the previous three weeks due to injury, Taylor returned strong and played 81% of the Colts snaps. He had all 20 of the Colts’ rushing attempts by a running back (Richardson had 6 as a QB).

Taylor’s two backups, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson, had a combined 12 snaps played and only saw a single touch (a Sermon 14-yard reception). If I am playing one of them to be different in a large GPP, then I would pick Sermon, but in single entries and 3max, I do not want either of them in my lineups.

Tier 1: Jonathan Taylor

Fade/Deep Punt: Trey Sermon, Tyler Goodson

Wide Receiver

• The Vikings have allowed 1434 yards to opposing wide receivers (3rd most).
• They are giving up 48.3 DK (most in the NFL).

The running back situation in Indianapolis was easy to point out, but their wide receiver room is anything but easy this season. Michael Pittman leads the team in targets with 53, six ahead of Josh Downs. In the last three weeks, four differentwide receivers have seen 11 or more targets, with Downs leading the way with 21 in that span. The Colts have made the change from Richardson to Old Man Joe Flacco, so their wide receivers should see more work than usual. In Flacco’s two starts earlier in the year, the Colts wide receivers saw 53 total targets.

My favorite wide receiver for the Colts is going to be Josh Downs. He has been the best Colt wideout over the past three weeks and is averaging the most points (.54) per route run. Downs should lineup the majority of the game in the slot, which will pair him up against Byron Murphy, who is the weakest of the Viking corners. Murphy is tied for the sixth most points given up per route.

Michael Pittman is my second favorite wide receiver for the Colts. His numbers haven’t been there this season, but that has been largely due to Richardson’s struggles. In his two games with Flacco in Weeks 5 and 6, Pittman scored his only two touchdowns of the season. He will see Murphy a couple of times as well, which, as I mentioned above, is a favorable matchup.

Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce should see snaps on Sunday, but they are less of a priority for me compared to the two mentioned above. But of the two, Pierce would be my WR3. He has played the second most snaps of all the Colts wide receivers. Mitchell is more of a deep punt play if you are maxing out larger GPPs.

Tier 1: Josh Downs, Michael Pittman

Tier 2: Alec Pierce

Punts/Fades: Adonai Mitchell

Tight End

• The Vikings have given 315 receiving yards to tight ends (9th fewest).
• They are giving up 10.9 DK (12th fewest).

I’ll be honest, I am fading all the Colts’ tight ends this week. The Vikings are great against tight ends, and over the last two weeks the Colts have targeted their tight ends 10 times, but they have only had two receptions for nine yards. For single entries, there are many different ways to go to not need a tight end, so only play one if you are entering a lot of lineups.

These are the stats for the Colts tight ends over the past three weeks:

• Mo Alie-Cox: 94 snaps/6 targets/4 recs for 41 yards
• Kylen Granson: 51 snaps/5 targets/1 rec for 4 yards
• Drew Ogletree: 64 snaps/3 targets/1 rec for 5 yards
• Will Mallory: 25 snaps/4 targets/2 rec for 24 yards

The tight ends haven’t been good, and it’s been unpredictable to call who will get the majority of the workload. If I had to play one, it would be Alie-Cox because of the snaps played; he has more opportunities for some production.

Deep Punts: Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Drew Ogletree, and Will Malory

Minnesota Vikings

Running Back

• Indy is giving up 25.2 DK per game (11th most).
• They have allowed 986 rushing yards (3rd Most).
• They have allowed 292 receiving yards (10th most).

Aaron Jones is the clear leader of the Viking backfield and is a lock for me this week. He has 33 of the Vikings’ 35 rushing attempts and all five of the receptions by a running back since the bye week. The Colts have been terrible against running backs, so I am locking Jones into all my lineups, both in the captain spot and flex.

Ty Chandler has not done much with the work that he has been given this season. He has 193 total yards and has yet to find the end zone. A couple of weeks ago, the Vikings brought in Cam Akers, who was with the team last season as well.He has yet to have a carry, but with Chandler struggling, Sunday night can be when he gets his first carry since rejoining the Vikings.

Tier 1: Aaron Jones

Deep Punts: Ty Chandler, Cam Akers

Wide Receiver

• The Colts have given up 1203 receiving yards to wide receivers (13th most).
• They are giving up 33.9 DK to receivers (15th most).

Play Justin Jefferson. Don’t overthink it in single entries and 3max.

The WR2 for the Vikings is also an easy choice; Jordan Addison is second on the Vikings in receptions and targets behind Jefferson in both. O’Connell might make it a priority to target Addison a bit more than he was the last two weeks after the latter posted a “Free 3” message on his Instagram. Addison will get a good matchup against Jaylon Jones, who is allowing1.21 yards and.18 fantasy points per route ran.

The other Vikings wide receiver who should see a decent amount of targets is Jalen Nailor. Nailor was a great number two for the two weeks that Addison was out and has still seen 3.7 targets per game since Addison’s return. His matchup against Kenny Moore II isn’t great, but it’s also not terrible. Moore is allowing 26 fantasy points but only 72 yards per route ran. Nailor should have a couple of catches, but he is clearly the WR3 on the team for me this week.

Tier 1: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison

Tier 2: Jalen Nailor

Punt: Brandon Powell, Trent Sherfield Jr.

Tight End

• The Colts have given up 448 receiving yards to tight ends (9th most).
• They are allowing 14.7 DK per game (5th most).

On Sunday, we are going to see the return of star tight end TJ Hockenson for the Vikings. Hockenson has been out since tearing his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve 2023. He is a bit of an unknown going into this game because he hasn’t played in 315 days, but if he is close to who he was pre-injury, then I am grabbing some shares of him. In his 25 games played with the Vikings, he has 155 receptions for 1479 yards and eight touchdowns. With how bad the Colts are at stopping tight ends, I have Hockenson as my second favorite pass catcher for the Vikings.

In Hockenson’s absence, the Vikings have been using Mundt and Oliver as their main tight ends. I think both are still in play if you are playing a lot of lineups, as the Vikings use multiple tight ends even when Hockenson was 100% healthy. There is also a world where the Vikings ease Hockenson into the offense and Mundt and Oliver get more work.

Tier 1: TJ Hockenson

Punt/Fade: Johnny Mundt, Josh Oliver

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Justin Jefferson
• Jonathan Taylor
• Aaron Jones
• TJ Hockenson
• Josh Down
• Jordan Addison
• Sam Darnold
• Joe Flacco
• Will Reichard
• Matt Gay
• Michael Pittman
• Jalen Nailor

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Vikings D/ST
• Colts D/ST
• Ty Chandler
• Cam Akers
• Alec Pierce
• Mo Alie-Cox
• Kyle Granson
• Johnny Mundt
• Josh Oliver
• Adonai Mitchell
• Trent Sheffield Sr

Favorite prop for the game: Aaron Jones Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-120)