Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

Week 10 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Lions take on the Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Detroit Lions

Running Back

• The Texans have given up 746 rushing yards (10th Fewest in NFL)
• They have given up 191 receiving yards to running backs (2nd Fewest)
• Giving up 18.2 DK to running backs (4th Fewest)

The Lions have two great running backs to choose from. Jahmyr Gibbs is currently their most effective running back, he has 103 carries for 656 yards and seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, David Montgomery has 110 carries for 488 but he alsohas seven touchdowns on the ground. The two have very similar receiving numbers with Gibbs edging out Montgomery by four receiving yards on three more receptions.

This isn’t a great matchup for either of them. The Texans have been great at preventing big games with only Aaron Jones and Jonathan Taylor being able to finish the game with 100 total yards from the running back position. Of the two I will lean Gibbs as my favorite running back play for the Lions. I will have some exposure to both guys but both of them are behind the Lion’s wide receivers in terms of priority on this slate. I would rather attack the weaker Texan secondary who has struggled this season. 

Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery

Wide Receiver

• The Texans have allowed 1672 yards to opposing wide receivers (2nd Most).
• They are giving up 43.8 DK (3rd Most).

The Lions have one clear WR1 on their team and that is Amon-Ra St.Brown. St.Brown leads the Lions wide receiver room with 60 targets and has 46.5% of the total targets (129) for a Lions wide receiver. He should lead the Lions in targets once again this week as he gets a very favorable matchup against Houston’s Pitre. Pitre is the Texan’s slot corner and St.Brown runs a route 56% of the time from the slot. Pitre allows the most fantasy points per route (.34) and most yards (1.21) per route of all Texan corners. Every lineup I make this week will start with Amon-Ra St.Brown whether it’s as my captain or in the flex spot.

The Lions will be getting their WR2 back this season as Jameson Williams’ suspension has been lifted and he is eligible to play on Sunday. Despite missing the previous two games, he is still second on the Lions in targets with 30. I like Williams a lot more on DK than FD as his price on DraftKings is a lot less compared to FanDuel. Paying $10K on FanDuel is steep as he is taking on the best corner on the Texans, Derek Stingley Jr. who has allowed the fewest yards (.76) and fantasy points (.17) per route ran. I will still use Williams on both sites but I will have him behind St.Brown and the two running backs. 

Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond have both seen targets this season and both have over 150 snaps played. Of the two I prefer Tim Patrick since he has played more snaps and is priced lower than Raymond on both sites. 

Tier 1: Amon-Ra St.Brown

Tier 2: Jameson Williams

Punts/Fades: Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond

Tight End

• The Texans have given 181 receiving yards to tight ends (Fewest).
• They are giving up 6.6 DK (Fewest).

I’ll be honest, for the most part, I am playing too much of the Lion’s tight end room. So far this season, the most yards they have allowed to a tight end was 41. They have also only given up three receiving touchdowns to tight ends. With Sam LaPorta struggling a bit this season, and only having two games of over 10 fantasy points this season, I would rather take my chances with St.Brown or the running backs. LaPorta is fourth for me in terms of priority for Lions players ahead of Williams. 

I want no Brock Wright unless I am playing a 20max or higher number of entries. The Texans are too good to throw a dart in SE on a tight end with nine receptions this season.

Tier 1: Sam LaPorta

Fade: Brock Wright 

Houston Texans

Running Back

• Detroit is giving up 18.9 DK per game (5th Fewest).
• They have allowed 634 rushing yards (6th Fewest).
• They have allowed 210 receiving yards (4th Fewest).

Joe Mixon is the top running back for the Houston Texans. Similarly to his Lion counterparts, while I like him for showdown I would rather prioritize the top wide receivers instead. The Lion’s run defense has been solid this season outside of their games against Aaron Jones and Kenneth Walker who both put up yards and scored. I will still use Mixon in lineups where I can fit him in, but I am not going to try to jam him into my lineups. 

Dare Ogunbowale is a complete fade for me. I like his price at 3K on DraftKings but since Week 5 he has done almost nothing averaging .4 DK points. Against this good Lions defense I want nothing to do with Ogunbowale, maybe if you are maxing out the 150max you can put him in a handful of lines.

UPDATE: I am now more on Joe Mixon with Nico Collins being ruled out as he should see a couple more targets this game.

Tier 1: Joe Mixon

Fade: Dare Ogunbowale

Wide Receiver

• The Lions have given up 1349 receiving yards to wide receivers (12th Most).
• They are giving up 36.4 DK to receivers (7th Most).

***Update: Nico Collins has been ruled out for the game***

We are finally getting the return of Nico Collins to the lineup after missing the previous four games. Collin’s return is going to bring life back to the Houston passing game. Stroud is averaging five fewer points in the four games Collins missed compared to the four complete games Collins has played. Collins couldn’t have picked a better matchup to return against as the Lions are one of the worst teams against wide receivers. He should get Terrion Arnold as his matchup throughout the game who has been the Lion’s best corner back. Arnold being the best Lion corner shouldn’t be an issue as he is still allowing .26 fantasy points and 1.21 yards per route. 

Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie, and Robert Woods go back to being the backup wide receivers. In the four games with both Collins and Dell in the lineup to start the year, none of the three receivers had more than five targets. Of the three I would prioritize Hutchinson. With the question marks about Collins, there is a chance he isn’t given a full workload so I think Hutchinson should see the biggest bump to his workload if Collins is on the sidelines.

With Collins back, Tank Dell returns to being the WR2 for the Texans. Dell should get a bump to his stats playing alongside Collins as he now avoids the opposing team’s best corner. That statement couldn’t be more true this week as instead of dealing with Arnold, Dell should see a lot of Carlton Davis who has struggled this season. Davis is allowing the second most fantasy points on the Lions with .3 FP per route and is allowing a target on 19.6% of routes run. With some questions about Collins coming off of the injury and Dell being priced less, I have them as a coin flip and will have at least one of the two in every lineup.

Updating the article with the news that Collins is out. Dell gets downgraded a bit for me as he will now be the main focus of the Lions secondary, but he still has the matchup against Carlton Davis that I mentioned above. So Dell is still a priority for me on this showdown. The player that gets a advantage from the Collins injury this week should be John Metchie. Hutchinson should be the player that Arnold will now defend which will leave Metchie lined up across Amik Robertson who is allowing .32 FP/RR and 1.72 Y/RR which are both the most allowed by a Lions corner.

Tier 1: Tank Dell

Tier 2: John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson

Punt: Robert Woods

Tight End

• The Lions have given up 244 receiving yards to tight ends (2nd Fewest).
• They are allowing 7.3 DK per game (3rd Fewest).

Just like with LaPorta and the Lion’s tight end room, I am not too high on the Texans. The Lions have been equally as good as the Texans in stopping tight ends, as the Lions have only given up 63 more yards and are allowing only .7 more fantasy points to the position. But if you are using a tight end on the Texans, the main guy is Dalton Schultz. He is leading all Houston tight ends with 44 targets and 26 receptions. Schultz should also see a slight drop off in targets, in the four games with Collins on the field he averaged 4 targets per game but saw that jump to 5.5 in the four games without Collins. 

Cade Stover is the only other Texan tight end I would look at rostering this showdown. He has seen 11 targets this season and has caught seven of those for 85 yards. He is not someone I am looking to roster too much of, but his connection with Stroud from their Ohio State days can keep him relevant in this offense.

Tier 1: Dalton Schultz

Punt/Fade: Cade Stover

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Amon-Ra St.Brown
• Tank Dell
• Jared Goff
• CJ Stroud
• David Montgomery
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Joe Mixon
• Sam LaPorta
• Dalton Schultz
• Jake Bates
• Ka’imi Fairbairn
• John Metchie

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Lions D/ST
• Texans D/ST
• Cade Stover
• Jameson Williams
• Tim Patrick
• Xavier Hutchinson
• Kalif Raymond
• Robert Woods

Favorite prop for the game: Amon-Ra St.Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-120)