Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

Week 8 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Cowboys take on the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Dallas Cowboys

Running Back

• 49ers have given up 583 rushing yards (11th fewest in NFL)
• They have given up 290 receiving yards to running backs (6th most)
• Giving up 23.3 DK to running backs (16th fewest)

***Update*** Dowdle has been ruled out due to illness. Cook and Elliott are the two running backs that will lead the Dallas backfield. I will lean Elliott due to knowledge of the playbook but I think Cook is still usable. Although with how good the Niners have been stopping the run, I would prioritize having a Cowboy TE or WR over either of the running backs.

With the Cowboys elevating Calvin Cook from the practice squad, the Dallas running back room becomes a bit more cloudy and congested. The star of the backfield will still be Rico Dowdle who is the team leader in carries and leads all running backs on the squad with 177 snaps played. The 49ers have been on the best teams stopping backs from rushing but they have struggled stopping receiving backs. They are allowing just under 42 receiving yards allowed to running backs and Dowdle is averaging 22 receiving yards per game. That is where I think Dowdle should do the most damage against the 49ers.

I mentioned that the Cowboy’s running back room might be more congested with Cook being elevated and that is because with Cook now on the squad Dowdle has three backups; Zeke Elliott, Deuce Vaughn, and Calvin Cook. Between Elliot and Vaughn who have both been active this season, Elliot has been by far the better of the two. He has 38 carries compared to Vaughn’s seven. I will not have any of the three in SE or 3max, but if you are running 150max or close to it then I would prioritize Elliott over any of the other two.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Zeke Elliott

Fade/Deep Punt: Dalvin Cook, Deuce Vaughn

Wide Receiver

• The 49ers have allowed 948 yards to opposing wide receivers (16th most).
• They are giving up 30.2 DK (11th fewest).

You don’t need me to tell you to play CeeDee Lamb. He is a lock in every format and site.

The second choice for Dallas wide receivers is also pretty clear. Jalen Tolbert has taken over the WR2 spot for Dallas and has accumulated a 23.7% target share. Tolbert is seeing a target on 15.9% of his routes, and is averaging .33 fantasy points per route ran. Ward will be a tough matchup for him but the veteran is giving up .31 fantasy points per route defended which is great for Tolbert. The battle for the WR3 spot for Dallas is where it gets interesting. Jalen Brooks leads KaVontae Turpin in snaps played (148 to 104) but Turpin has a 20 to 14 lead in targets. I am going to take a shot with Brooks over Turpin as Brooks has had more snaps in five of the six games so hopefully he will have more opportunities when he’s on the field. 

Tier 1: CeeDee Lamb

Tier 2: Jalen Tolbert

Punts/Fades: Jalen Brooks, KaVontae Turpin

Tight End

• The 49ers have given 283 receiving yards to tight ends (13th fewest).
• They are giving up 10.5 DK (14th fewest).

Similarly to Lamb at wide receiver, there isn’t much to say about Dallas’s starting tight end. Jake Ferguson is the Cowboy’s second-best pass catcher only being Lamb. He is tied with Tolbert with 34 targets this season and has one more reception than him. The only issue that Ferguson has had this season is scoring a touchdown. He has failed to reach the end zone so far this season. Because of how the 49ers have played against tight ends and how good Tolbert has been I would rank Ferguson as my third favorite pass catcher behind Lamb and Tolbert.

Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford are purely deep punt plays for me if you aren’t maxing out the 150s steer clear of both of these guys. Combined they have 14 targets which would put them sixth on the team which isn’t great.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Deep Punts: Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford

San Francisco 49ers

Running Back

• Dallas is giving up 28.6 DK per game (4th most).
• They have allowed 653 rushing yards (16th fewest).
• They have allowed 250 receiving yards (12th most).

Jordan Mason is the clear leader of the 49er backfield as he is second in rushing with 667 rushing yards only behind Henry (873) with Dallas being average at stopping the run and allowing the fourth most rushing touchdowns (8) and locking Mason into all my lineups. With a healthy wide receiver room Mason was getting a lot of work but with Aiyuk being out for the season and Deebo’s status up in the air at the time of me typing this, Mason should be in line to see an uptick in his workload. 

Not including the Seattle game where Mason missed the second half due to injury, his backups are only averaging 2.8 carries per game. So while I like Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. neither is a priority for me in SE and 3max. Unless the 49ers change their style of play for this game or Mason gets hurt once again, I don’t expect either of them to have any work

Quick note, Kyle Juszczyk has had touches in all but one game this season, I am not telling you to play him but if you want a punt that can payoff Juszczyk might be that guy more than Guerendo and Taylor.

Tier 1: Jordan Mason

Tier 2: Kyle Juszczyk

Deep Punts: Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor Jr.

Wide Receiver

• The Cowboys have given up 897 receiving yards to wide receivers (11th fewest).
• They are giving up 32.9 DK to receivers (15th most).

The injury bug has hit the 49ers, they will be without Aiyuk and Jennings who are the top two targets for the Niners. Deebo Samuel is expected to play but it’s still not official that he will play. Chris Conley who has the fourth most snaps for a Niner wide receiver this season has been nursing an ankle injury this week which kept him from full practice on Wednesday and Thursday. That leaves three fully healthy wide receivers, Jacob Cowing, Ricky Pearsall, and Ronnie Bell. 

If Deebo plays he is the best option for Niner wide receiver, he is used in so many ways that he should see a lot of touches with all the uncertainty at the position. He should draw the attention of Booth if he does play and that is a great matchup for Deebo. Even if Deebo does play, I still like the Niners 1st round draft pick, Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall finally made his debut last week after missing time after getting shot during an attempted robbery. Pearsall played 48 snaps and had five targets. I think he will act as the Aiyuk to Deebo with the former being out for the season. 

Of the remaining three Niner wideouts, I think it comes down to Cowing and Conley for the WR3 spot. Conley saw only two targets on 44 snaps last week meanwhile Cowing had three targets on only 12 snaps. So I would lean Cowing over Conley but I think they are similar punts.

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall

Tier 2: Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing

Punt: Ronnie Bell

Tight End

• Jets have given up 214 receiving yards to tight ends (6th fewest).
• They are allowing 9.7 DK per game (11th fewest).

George Kittle is my favorite TE for the Niners. The big-body tight end should be an intriguing part of the offense tonight due to the lack of pass-catching options for the Niners. He is the main lineup-worthy. Kittle is second on the Niners in targets (42), 5 behind leader Aiyuk, but he is the leader in receptions with 34. I trust Kittle a lot more than Cowing and Conley as my number three Niners pass catcher.

As of writing this, Kittle is projected to play, but if he doesn’t then Eric Saubert gets a huge bump at the tight end position. He only has four receptions but has played 169 snaps this year. If Kittle does play then Saubert is just a punt play at best.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Punt/Fade: Eric Saubert

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• CeeDee Lamb
• Jordan Mason
• Brock Purdy
• Dak Prescott
• Jake Ferguson
• Deebo Samuel
• Ricky Pearsall
• Jalen Tolbert
• Brandon Aubrey
• Anders Carlson
• George Kittle

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• 49ers D/ST
• Cowboys D/ST
• Chris Conley
• Jacob Cowing
• KaVontae Turpin
• Zeke Elliott
• Kyle Juszczyk
• Eric Saubert
• Jalen Brooks
• Ronnie Bell
• Luke Schoonmaker

Favorite prop for the game: CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)