Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Chicago Bears at Houston Texans

Week 1 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Chicago Bears take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Chicago Bears

Running Back

Houston only gave up 48 yards and a TD in Week 1 to the Indianapolis Colts and a talented Jonathan Taylor. The clear number one back for the Bears is D’Andre Swift who they brought in during the offseason. He played in 70% of the Bear’s 56 offensive snaps with no other back having more than 20% of the snaps.

Despite playing the majority of snaps, Swift didn’t get to see many rushing attempts. He only had 10 attempts in his 39 snaps. With how bad the Bears looked in Week 1, I am not prioritizing any of their backs but the main one to target if you want one would be Swift. I can see the Bears using a bit more of Swift to ease the pressure on Caleb Williams as he didn’t look good against the Titans.

The only other two running backs that saw any work were Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer who each had two carries. I would not use either of them as they would need an injury to Swift or a huge run to have any value for fantasy.

Tier 1: D’Andre Swift

Tier 2: Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer 

Wide Receiver

The Texans only gave up nine completions to Anthony Richardson, but those nine went for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The Texan secondary gave up a 60 and 54-yard touchdown pass in their first game. 

The Bears have two wide receivers questionable for Week 2. Keenan Allen is dealing with a heel injury and rookie Rome Odunze has a knee injury. Both seem to be leaning toward playing on Sunday Night according to reports. Allen’s availability will be huge for the Bears in this game. If he plays he has a great fantasy matchup against Texan slot corner Jalen Pitre. Allen lined up as the slot WR 61% of the time against the Titans and finished with .4 FP/RR, meanwhile Pitre gave up the most FP/RR with .45 against the Colts. If Allen is healthy he is the best wide receiver option for the Bears.

I like DJ Moore, but he is projected to be shadowed by Derek Stingley for most of the game. Stingley gave up only .21 FP/RR and 13.4% targets/RR which is the lowest of any Texan CB. 

The Bears had two other wide receivers who ran routes during Week 1. One of them was Velus Jones Jr. who had more touches as a running back (2) than a receiver (1). The other was DeAndre Carter who had two targets for 1 reception and six yards. Neither played more than 23% of the Bear’s snaps so unless Allen and Odunze get ruled out, I don’t think either is great for showdown.

Tier 1: Keenan Allen

Tier 2: DJ Moore and Rome Odunze

Punts/Fades: Velus Jones Jr. and DeAndre Carter

Tight End

The Texans held the Colt’s tight ends to no receptions on only two targets. While that looks like the Texans are amazing against tight ends, it feels more like a one-time thing as Richardson only threw 19 passes and relied on his legs during the game.

In Week 1 the Bears used three tight ends, but only two saw a target. Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett played at least 48% of the Bear’s snaps, and each saw a single target. While Everett saw seven more snaps than Kmet, I still prefer Kmet. He has been the Bear’s best tight end since 2021 seeing at least 90 targets in all but one season since becoming the starter. But at Everett’s price, he is still very much in play.

I want no Mercedes Lewis who was the third tight end as he saw no targets on his nine snaps.

Tier 1: Cole Kmet

Tier 2: Gerald Everett

Houston Texans

Running Back

Chicago gave up 103 yards and a TD in Week 1 to the Tennessee Titans and the talented duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The clear number one back for the Texans is Joe Mixon who they brought in during the offseason. Mixon had a rushing attempt (30) on 53% of his snaps (57). The only other running back to take a handoff was Dameon Pierce who only had three attempts on nine snaps. 

Mixon should have some success on Sunday Night against the Bear’s rush defense as they failed to stop Pollard and Spears throughout Week 1. With no other running back having the confidence of the HC based on Week 1, Mixon should be the running back for all the goal-line carries. He had five carries inside the opponents 10 yard line and scored on one of those rushing attempts.

Like the Chicago running backs, I don’t want much if any exposure to them as they can only be of value if Mixon goes down or they break off a huge run. 

Tier 1: Joe Mixon

Tier 2: Dameon Pierce

Wide Receiver

The Bears on paper, looked great against receivers last week as Will Levis only completed 19 passes for 127 yards. The Bears secondary held Levis to a 59% completion percentage and picked him off twice including the pick-six that won them the game. The Texans receiving core and CJ Stroud are a huge step up in talent compared to what Chicago saw last week.

The CB/WR matchups for this game should be Stefon Diggs against Kyler Gordon, Nico Collins against Jaylon Johnson, and Tank Dell vs Tyrique Stevenson. All three matchups should be fun to watch as the game goes along, but the biggest one for me is the Collins/Johnson battle. Johnson didn’t allow a reception last week, meanwhile, Collins led the Texans with eight targets in Week 1. 

My lean for favorite WR for the Texans is Tank Dell. Dell saw the third most percentage of snaps of the three Texan main receivers but still saw seven targets which was only behind Collins. He finished Week 1 with .44 fantasy points per route ran. He gets the most favorable matchup of the three as Stevenson, while winning Defensive Player of the Week, gave up the most targets and fantasy points per route run. 

The only other two Texan receivers who saw the field were Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson. Both only played 12 snaps and of the two only Hutchinson saw any targets (2). Outside of a milly maker or one of the other 150max contests, I wouldn’t include even a player.

Tier 1: Tank Dell

Tier 2: Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs

Punt: Xavier Hutchinson and Robert Woods

Tight End

The Bears did a good job stopping the Titans two tight ends. Chig Okonkwo and Nick Vannett combined for four receptions and 26 yards, and Okonkwo scored a touchdown. But as I mentioned above with the wide receivers, the Texan’s offense is a stronger team than what the Bears saw with the Titans.

The main tight end for the Texans is Dalton Schultz. Schultz led the tight end room with 63 snaps played which was 80% of the Texans snaps. His backup Brevin Jordan played in 51% (40) of the snaps. My lead is of course Schultz since he is the main tight end but Jordan is in play as he saw only one less target than Schultz despite playing 23 fewer snaps. Also at Jordan’s price, he opens the door to get bigger named players. 

The Texans had a third tight end that saw snaps in Week 1, Cade Stover. Stover is only a super punt play, but with his Ohio St connection with Stroud, he can maybe find his way onto the box score.

Tier 1: Dalton Schultz

Tier 2: Brevin Jordan

Punt: Cade Stover

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Joe Mixon
• Tank Dell
• CJ Stroud
• Keenan Allen
• Caleb Williams
• Nico Collins
• Stefon Diggs

Flex Rankings Tier 2:

• D’Andre Swift
• DJ Moore
• Cole Kmet
• Cairo Santos
• Ka’imi Fairbairn
• Dalton Schultz
• Dameon Pierce
• Rome Odunze
• Brevin Jordan
• Gerald Everett

Punts/Fadeable:

• DeAndre Carter
• Velus Jones Jr
• Xavier Hutchinson
• Robert Woods
• Khalil Herbert
• Cade Stover

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one QB
• Play 1 Texan WR in every lineup
• Both Kickers are in play
• Not on the Bears Defense
• Play Caleb Williams with Keenan Allen or Cole Kmet

Favorite prop for the game: Joe Mixon Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DK)