Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Buffalo Bills At Kansas City Chiefs

The Bills take on the Chiefs in Kansas City for a spot in the title game. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Buffalo Bills

Running Backs

• Kansas City is giving up 16.3 DK per game (Fewest).
• They have allowed 1197 rushing yards (3rd Fewest).
• They have allowed 413 receiving yards (4th Fewest).

I do not like the matchup the Bills running backs have against the Chiefs. KC was in the top five defensively against running backs in yards and fantasy points. KC is coming off giving up the most rushing yards to a running back, allowing 88 rushing yards to Mixon in the Divisional round. Coming into last week’s game the Chiefs had only allowed three running backs to reach the 70+ mark on the ground. In the first meeting between these teams James Cook led the Bill running backs with 20 rushing yards. The only saving grace for Cook that day in fantasy was that he scored twice through the ground. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson both had five carries but only managed to finish with 29 combined rushing yards. 

I am using Cook in a couple of lineups but he is not a priority for me as I think if the Bills want to win it will come down to Josh Allen and the passing game. As for Davis and Johnson, I like them but they are more punt plays that I’ll sprinkle in a couple of lines but they won’t be in my main lineup or single entries. 

Tier 1: James Cook

Tier 2: Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

Wide Receiver

• The Chiefs have allowed 2359 yards to opposing wide receivers (6th Fewest).
• They are giving up 33.5 DK (13th Fewest).

On paper, Khalil Shakir has the best matchup. Shakir plays around 75% of his snaps out of the slot which means he will avoid having to go up against McDuffie who will be on Keon Coleman. Instead, Shakir should see either Chamarri Conner or Christian Roland-Wallace who both mainly play as the slot corners for the Chiefs. Both allow .35 FPRR and Roland-Wallace leads Kansas City in YPRR allowed with 1.38. Shakir will be one of my most used players for the Showdown and is my favorite Bills player, aside from Josh Allen.

As I mentioned above, Coleman should see a lot of Trent McDuffie who is the Chief’s best cover corner. McDuffie allows a Chiefs-low 15.4% target rate and is allowing .22 FPRR and .84 YPRR both are just slightly above Joshua William’s .19 and .8. With McDuffie and Williams both switching between the LCB and RCB spots, both Coleman and Cooper will have to deal with the two best corners which means I am slightly off both compared to Shakir.

Mack Hollins is a solid punt option for a showdown. He has the most snaps played in the playoffs for Bills wide receivers so far and has seen four targets which is only behind Shakir and Curtis Samuel in the two playoff games.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins

Fade/DeepPunt: Curtis Samuel

Tight End

• The Chiefs have given 1191 receiving yards to tight ends (Most).
• They are giving up 15.3 DK (4th Most).

I like both of the Bill’s tight ends in this game. Both Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have seen five targets in the first two playoff games which is only behind Shakir’s 13. With Coleman and Cooper, or Hollins if he is in for either guy, having to deal with the best corners KC has to offer, the tight ends are in better positions. 

With Kansas being one of the worst defenses against tight ends, I will try to have at least one of Buffalo’s tight ends in every lineup where I am using Josh Allen.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox

Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back

• Buffalo is giving up 26.2 DK per game (5th Most).
• They have allowed 1629 rushing yards (16th Most).
• They have allowed 750 receiving yards (Most in the NFL).

I am a big fan of both of KC’s top running backs, Pacheco and Hunt, but there is a lot of uncertainty at the position since the return of Pacheco late in the regular season. Since Pacheco’s return in week 13 against the Raiders both running backs have had 50+ rushing attempts.

Isiah Pacheco: 54 carries, 193 yards, No Touchdowns

Kareem Hunt: 53 carries, 195 yards, 3 Touchdowns

Above is the stat line for the two running backs since Week 13. They have similar numbers outside of the touchdowns, where Hunt has the clear advantage as he has been used near the goal line more than Pacheco. I think both of them are in play for Showdown, but I wouldn’t force them into lineups as I’d rather prioritize the Chief’s passing game.

Tier 2: Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt

Wide Receiver

• The Bills have allowed 2519 yards to opposing wide receivers (16th Most).
• They are giving up 34.3 DK (14th Most).

The Chief wide receivers didn’t have the best divisional round with only Worthy having a reception (5) while the other receivers were kept off the stat sheet on only four combined targets. In the first meeting between these two sides, the wide receivers combined for 12 receptions for 136 yards and one touchdown. This game should be a back-and-forth shootout so I’m expecting the Kansas wide receivers to be heavily involved.

There are three main wide receivers to target for Showdown; Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown. Of those three the main wide receiver I am targeting is Worthy. He is used in both the rush and passing games so even if he is not catching the ball I expect some trick plays for him as a runner. 

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins

Punt: JuJu Smith-Schuster

Tight End

• The Bills have given 817 receiving yards to tight ends (16th Fewest).
• They are giving up 12.3 DK (16th Most).

You don’t need me to tell you that Travis Kelce is a good play as he is Mahomes favorite target. But his backup is also very much in play for the showdown. Noah Gray has played at least 50% of the snaps in all but two games (45% and 49%) and has seen 50 targets this season. He is clearly behind Kelce on the depth chart but he has more receiving touchdowns which makes him very much playable.

Tier 1: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Josh Allen
• Patrick Mahomes
• Travis Kelce
• Xavier Worthy
• Dalton Kincaid
• James Cook
• Khalil Shakir
• Keon Coleman
• Kareem Hunt
• Isiah Pacheco
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Dawson Knox

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Kansas D/ST
• Buffalo D/ST
• Tyler Bass
• Harrison Butker
• Amari Cooper
• Ty Johnson
• Mack Hollins
• Ray Davis
• Curtis Samuel
• Juju Smith-Schuster

Favorite props for the game:

• Dalton Kincaid Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-111)/ 40+ (+133)/ 50+ (+226)
• Buffalo Bills ML (+105)
• Xavier Worthy Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)