Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Week 4 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Bills take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Buffalo Bills

Running Back

The Ravens have been the best team against the run this season, having only allowed 117 rushing yards in the first three games. Baltimore has also allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs at 12.5. The main running back for Buffalo is James Cook, and he should be the one who sees most of the workload out of the backfield.

In his first three games, Cook has only played 53.2% of the Bills snaps because of the blowouts the Bills have been in so far. Because he has been on the bench in the latter stages of the game, he only has 188 rushing yards this season. This game should not be a blowout for either team, so I expect to see a full four quarters from Cook. Cook’s skill set is too good not to use him in any slate, even against a tough defense like Baltimore.

Cook’s two backups are Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, who have both seen time thanks to the blowouts. I am not prioritizing either of them this week, as I think with a close game, Cook will be in most of the game. But I will sprinkle them into a lineup or two for salary relief.

Tier 1: James Cook

Tier 2: Ray Davis/Ty Johnson

Wide Receiver

For how good the Ravens have been at defending the run, they have been equally as bad at defending against the pass. Baltimore is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (42.7). Opposing wide receivers have 527 yards and four touchdowns in the first three weeks against Baltimore. They have given up 100 yards to two wide receivers so far.

The Bills wide receiver room is interesting through three weeks. They are one of the five teams coming into Sunday who have five different wide receivers with at least five targets. Even with the ball being spread out, the Bills have a clear top guy, and that is Khalil Shakir. Shakir has the team lead in targets (14), yards (168), and receiving touchdowns (2). Shakir is a lock for me on both sites. He sees a target on 16% of his routes, which leads the team, and he runs the majority (78%) of those routes out of the slot. Humphries and Wiggins are the two DBs that cover the slot the most for Baltimore, and while Humphries has done a good job this season limiting wide receivers, Wiggins has not, allowing. 35 fantasy points per route ran.

The two other wide receivers from Buffalo that I have my eye on for showdown are Coleman and Hollins. Coleman is tied with Samuel for the second most targets for a wide receiver for Buffalo at seven. Meanwhile, Hollins follows closely behind with five targets. Hollins is cheap compared to the amount of snaps he has played. He leads all Bills wide receivers with 114 snaps played. Of the two, Coleman has a safer floor thanks to seeing more targets per snap played compared to Hollins, but Hollins can find success if he continues to see the most snaps.

I want to quickly mention Samuel; he is priced low because he hasn’t seen many snaps, but like I mentioned above, he is tied in targets with Coleman. Samuel is more of a punt play, but if he can see an uptick in snaps, he can pay off for a showdown.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Keon Coleman/Mack Hollins

Punts/Fades: Curtis Samuel/Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid is the Bills’ best tight end. He has played 105 snaps and has 11 targets for eight receptions and 85 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens are allowing 17 DK points against tight ends in their first three games. That is the second most points given up per game by a team this season. Of all Bills players, Kincaid is second in targets and receptions, only behind Shakir. He has had one less target than Shakir in each of the first three games. Kincaid is one of Allen’s favorite targets, and while I won’t call him a lock for a showdown, he is very much almost one. 

Dawson Knox is the backup tight end and can be a punt play. He has played 93 snaps this season and has seen four targets. He had two targets twice and then failed to see one during their week two game. At $1600 on DK, he doesn’t need much to hit value, so he is an option if you need salary. 

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid

Tier 2: Dawson Knox

Baltimore Ravens

Running Back

The Bills have been the seventh-worst team against running backs so far, giving up 26.9 DK per game. They have allowed 254 rushing yards and a touchdown. They have given 162 receiving yards to running backs, which is the fifth most yards allowed. Baltimore’s main threat at running back is Derrick Henry, who has seen the most rushing attempts for the Ravens. He has seen in carry in 53.8% of his snaps played.

Henry leads Baltimore in just about every rushing stat. He has 56 carries for 281 yards and four touchdowns. Henry was kept in check in Week 1 against the Chiefs, only rushing for 46 yards and scoring once, but since then he has 235 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. With Buffalo struggling against running backs, Henry should continue the success he has had the last two games.

Henry’s backup, Justice Hill, can cause trouble for the Bills in a different way. Hill is third in receptions for Baltimore, with 10 in the first three games. He has seen a dip in production since Week 1, where he had six receptions for 52 yards, but with Buffalo being terrible against running backs who can catch, he can have another breakout game like the one against KC.

Tier 1: Derrick Henry

Tier 2: Justice Hill

Wide Receiver

The Bills have been good against wide receivers so far this season. Through three weeks, they have allowed the sixth-fewest DK points (24.4) and third-fewest receiving yards to receivers.

Zay Flowers is the leading wide receiver for the Ravens. Flowers has a 26.7% target share and is averaging 1.53 yards per route run. Normally I would lock in Flowers for any lineup, but he has a tough matchup this week against the Bills. Flowers has played most of his snaps on the right side, which should see him matchup against either Benford or Douglas from Buffalo. Both corners are allowing under.2 FP/RR, with Benford only giving up.17 and Douglas.19. Flowers is still the best option for a receiver to pair with Lamar Jackson.

Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor are the other wide receivers who have seen targets this season. Neither of the two is high on my list, as Bateman should also see a lot of Benford and Douglas when they are not covering Flowers, and Agholor has only seen five targets in 104 snaps played. Of the two, I will have more Agholor than Bateman. Agholor has the easiest matchup against Cam Lewis, who is allowing the most FP/RR.

Tier 1: Zay Flowers

Tier 2: Nelson Agholor/Rashod Bateman

Tight End

Buffalo has had a rough start going up against tight ends. They give up the ninth most points to opposing tight ends, 12.1 DK. Tight ends have 18 receptions, 124 yards, and a touchdown against the Bills in the first three weeks. Last week, Jacksonville’s backup tight end, Brenton Strange, had 9.2 DK against them.

The tight-end situation in Baltimore is a bit of a mess right now. In Week 1, Likely led the team with 12 targets but has followed that up with only four total targets the next two games. Then you have Mark Andrews, who has eight targets in three games, with five of the eight coming in Week 2. There really isn’t anything that points to who will be the better of the two this week. So if you are building a lineup with either, I would build a second lineup, replacing only the tight end you used for the other.

Tier 1: Isaiah Likely/Mark Andrews

Punt/Fade: Charlie Koler

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Josh Allen
• Lamar Jackson
• James Cook
• Dalton Kincaid
• Derrick Henry
• Khalil Shakir
• Isaiah Likely
• Zay Flowers
• Keon Coleman
• Mark Andrews

Flex Tier 2:

• Justice Hill
• Dawson Knox
• Nelson Agholor
• Rashod Bateman
• Bills D/ST
• Ravens D/ST
• Justin Tucker
• Tyler Bass
• Ray Davis
• Ty Johnson
• Curtis Samuel
• Mack Hollins
• Charlie Kolar
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least 1
  • Jackson or Allen
  • Kincaid or Shakir
  • Cook or Henry
• Don’t play more than 1 defense.
• Lamar can be ran naked
• Don’t play more than 2 skill positions against your defense.
• Don’t play a kicker against your defense
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player, someone has to move the ball down the field

Favorite prop for the game: Justice Hill Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115 FD)