Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Baltimore Ravens At Buffalo Bills

The Divisional Round weekend concludes with a bang as the Ravens take on the Bills at Orchard Park in Buffalo, New York. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Baltimore Ravens

Running Backs

• Buffalo is giving up 26.2 DK per game (5th Most).
• They have allowed 1629 rushing yards (16th Most).
• They have allowed 750 receiving yards (Most in the NFL).

We are in the 20th week of the NFL season, so you do not need me to tell you that Derrick Henry is really good. Henry is one of the best plays on the slate. He ran for 199 yards and a touchdown, including an 87-yard rush, in the first meeting against the Bills. He is priced correctly on both sites, so while he is a priority, I wouldn’t force him into every lineup.

Justice Hill is my favorite value play on the slate. He is averaging just under three receptions per game and is taking on the Bills who allow the most receiving yards to running backs. I will have lineups with Henry and Hill in them as they offer different ways to attack this Bills defense.

Tier 1: Derrick Henry

Tier 2: Justice Hill

Wide Receiver

• The Bills have allowed 2519 yards to opposing wide receivers (16th Most).
• They are giving up 34.3 DK (14th Most).

Before I write up the Ravens wideouts, I will say of the three positions this is the one I am using the fewest of. I prefer to prioritize the running backs and tight ends.

On paper, Nelson Agholor has the best matchup. Unfortunately, even with Flowers being out against the Steelers, Agholor only had one target as the Ravens WR2. At his price, he is still worth a shot as a value play.

Rashod Bateman is the Raven wide receiver that I would use if Flowers is out. His matchup against Rasul Douglas isn’t the best but it’s not the worst either. In his first matchup, he only had 1 target for 23 yards but with no Flowers, he should see a bigger workload. He’s had 19 targets in the past five weeks.

Tier 1: Rashod Bateman

Tier 2: Nelson Agholor

Fade/DeepPunt: Tylan Wallace, Devontez Walker

Tight End

• The Bills have given 817 receiving yards to tight ends (16th Fewest).
• They are giving up 12.3 DK (16th Most).

I like both of the Raven’s tight ends in this game. With Flowers being listed as doubtful and unlikely to play, both tight ends should be two of the top three targets alongside Bateman in the passing game. Neither tight end did much in the first game against the Bills only combining for 1 reception for 23 yards on two targets. I am not worried about a repeat performance for this showdown.

Tier 1: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely

Buffalo Bills

Running Back

• Baltimore is giving up 19.5 DK per game (5th Fewest).
• They have allowed 1085 rushing yards (Fewest in the NFL).
• They have allowed 674 receiving yards (4th Most).

I am a big Cook fan, but this is not the ideal spot for him. Ravens are one of the best defenses in fantasy against running backs. He didn’t have much work in the first game as the game was out of hand late. I will use Cook in some lineups but he isn’t a priority for me. Outside of Cook, I don’t want to use any of the other Bills running backs. 

Tier 1: James Cook

FADE/Punt: Ray Davis. Ty Johnson

Wide Receiver

• The Ravens have given up 2827 receiving yards to wide receivers (4th Most).
• They are giving up 37.4 DK to receivers (5th Most).

All three of the Bill’s top wide receivers are very much in play for the showdown. Of the three my favorite two are Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. There is not much to separate the Ravens corners, but of the three Brandon Stephens who will be on Coleman is the best to attack as he is allowing the most YPRR and is tied for most FPRR allowed.

Tier 1: Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Amari Cooper

Punt: Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel

Tight End

• The Ravens have given up 963 receiving yards to tight ends (9th Most).
• They are allowing 13.1 DK per game (13th Most).

I like both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid in this spot. Both saw three targets in the Wild Card game against the Broncos and both saw 29+ snaps (38%+). The Ravens have struggled to stop tight ends, allowing at least 50+ receiving yards to tight ends in 11 of their 18 games this season. In the first game against the Ravens, Kincaid had five receptions for 47 yards. 

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Josh Allen
• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry
• Mark Andrews
• Dalton Kincaid
• James Cook
• Rashod Bateman
• Isaiah Likely
• Justice Hill
• Khalil Shakir
• Keon Coleman

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Ravens D/ST
• Buffalo D/ST
• Tyler Bass
• Dawson Knox
• Justin Tucker
• Amari Cooper
• Ty Johnson
• Mack Hollins
• Ray Davis
• Curtis Samuel
• Nelson Agholor
• Tylan Wallace

Favorite props for the game:

• Dalton Kincaid Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Justice Hill Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)/ 25+ (-105)/ 40+ (+265)