Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Week 17 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Falcons take on the Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Atlanta Falcons

Running Backs

• Washington is giving up 23 DK per game (15th Fewest).
• They have allowed 1702 rushing yards (5th Most).
• They have allowed 367 receiving yards (4th Fewest).

Bijan Robinson is the best player on the Falcons and that is why I am locking him in every possible lineup where I can fit him, in both the CPT and Flex spots. While he might struggle to catch passes out of the backfield, Washington allows 2.9 receptions for 24.5 yards to running backs, he should have plenty of room to run as the Commanders are allowing the fifth most rushing yards to running backs. The only lineups where I will fade Robinson in are the ones where I am full-stacking the Falcons passing game.

His backup will be Tyler Allgeier who averages 17.5 snaps played per game. For his price he is worth a punt in lineups, as he has had at least nine touches each of the past four games and at least 11 in the past two. The only other running back that has seen snaps since the bye week is Avery Williams but he is a complete fade for me.

Tier 1: Bijan Robinson

Tier 2: Tyler Allgeier

Wide Receiver

• The Commanders have allowed 2058 yards to opposing wide receivers (9th Fewest).
• They are giving up 32.6 DK (16th Fewest).

Atlanta’s top wide receiver, Drake London, got some good news earlier in the week as Marshon Lattimore was ruled outfor this game. With no Lattimore, London should see a mix of Noah Igbinoghene, Mike Sainristill, and Benjamin St. Juste. The one that should line up across from London the most should be Sainristill who plays 80% of the time at either LCB or RCB. Sainristill has been the worst CB of the three allowing a team high.28 FPRR and 1.12 YPRR, both of which London leads the Falcons in. If you are fading Robinson in a lineup, I would use London.

The Falcons have two other wide receivers that can cause issues for the Commanders. The first one is Darnell Mooney. Mooney has been the WR2 for the Falcons the entire year and is only 24 targets behind London on the year. Over the past three weeks, he has 11 receptions for 224 yards, despite having no receptions in Week 15. At his price, it is hard to fit in since you can get to London for $1000 more, but if you can’t get to London then Mooney is a solid option. The other wide receiver who is getting significant time is Ray-Ray McCloud III. McCloud is on the field almost the same amount of snaps as London and Mooney but he is not seeing the same amount of targets, only seeing a target on 9.1% of snaps played. I wish he was lower so it would be easier to fit him in, but he is still a good option in the midrange.

Tier 1: Drake London, Darnell Mooney

Tier 2: Ray-Ray McCloud III

Tight End

• The Commanders have given 600 receiving yards to tight ends (5th Fewest).
• They are giving up 10.9 DK (11th Fewest).

Kyle Pitts will see the majority of snaps and targets of all of the Falcons tight ends. He is priced as the fourth highest Falcon pass catcher and for good reason. Since the Week 12 bye week, Pitts has only six receptions for 49 yards and has failed to score in all four games. At his price he is worth a shot, but with how hood Washington has been against tight ends this season I am comfortable fading him if he doesn’t fit my lineups. 

Charlie Woerner has served as the backup tight end to Pitts. Over the past two weeks, he has played 21 more snaps than Pitts but hasn’t done much with his snaps. He has one less target than Pitts over the last two weeks and has 28 fewer yards. He is worth a punt in MME lineups but besides that, I wouldn’t use him. 

Tier 1: Kyle Pitts

Punt/Fade: Charlie Woerner 

Washington Commanders

Running Back

• Atlanta is giving up 21 DK per game (8th Fewest).
• They have allowed 1235 rushing yards (8th Fewest).
• They have allowed 514 receiving yards (16th Fewest).

Brian Robinson Jr is the main running back for the Commanders now that Ekeler is on IR. He hasn’t had the best season, only averaging 60.8 rushing yards per game. He is priced a little too high for me in this matchup against the leagues 8th best fantasy defense against running backs. But he is still in play for Showdown as over the past two weeks he has 73.4% of the touches by a Washington running back and has played 69.1% of the snaps.

Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr are the two backups that have seen snaps since Ekeler’s injury. They have 95 combined snaps since Ekeler’s injury and have 32 total touches. McNichols is a better value play than Rodriguez but I won’t have too much of either of them.

Tier 1: Brian Robinson Jr

FADE/Punt: Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr

Wide Receiver

• The Falcons have given up 2328 receiving yards to wide receivers (11th Most).
• They are giving up 38.7 DK to receivers (3rd Most).

There is a clear leader in the Commander’s wide receiver room and that is Terry McLaurin. McLaurin leads Washington in receptions (73), targets (98), receiving touchdowns (12), and yards (1029). He will play most of the game on the left (73% of snaps) which means he’ll see a lot of AJ Terrell and Mike Hughes who both play around 50% of the time on the left. Both corners present a favorable matchup as both are allowing .34 FPRR when lined up on the left. McLaurin leads the Washington receivers in FPRR with .61. He should see a bit more yards when he is lined up across from Hughes (1.01 allowed) but Terrell is allowing .74 which is still a good number for McLaurin.

With no Dyami Brown this week, Olamide Zaccheaus, Luke McCaffrey, and Jamison Crowder will be the three behind McLaurin. Of the three Zaccheaus is the best option based on matchup. He plays 54% of the time out of the slot whichmeans he should see a lot of Dee Alford who is Atlanta’s weakest corner. Alford is allowing a team-high.46 FPRR and 1.41 YPRR. McCaffrey and Crowder should split time between Terrell and Hughes when they aren’t on McLaurin, bothare in play for me but I’ll give the edge to Crowder based on his usage last week.

Tier 1: Terry McLaurin

Tier 2: Olamide Zaccheaus

Punt: Jamison Crowder, Luke McCaffrey

Tight End

• The Falcons have given up 665 receiving yards to tight ends (10th Fewest).
• They are allowing 11 DK per game (12th Fewest).

I am not prioritizing the tight-end position for the Commanders this week. Atlanta has a good defense against tight ends and I think even at their price there might be better options. Zach Ertz, John Bates, and Ben Sinnott are all getting snaps, 179 combined snaps over the past two weeks, but they are not seeing targets. The three tight ends have combined for seven targets, a target on 4% of snaps. If I am playing one it would be Ertz since he has proven in the past that he can have good games, but you don’t need to force any of them into a lineup.

Tier 1: Zach Ertz

Tier 2: John Bates, Ben Sinnott

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Jayden Daniels
• Bijan Robinson
• Terry McLaurin
• Drake London
• Michael Penix Jr
• Brian Robinson Jr
• Darnell Mooney
• Zane Gonzalez
• Riley Patterson

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Washington D/ST
• Atlanta D/ST
• Tyler Allgeier
• Olamide Zaccheaus
• Ray-Ray McCloud III
• Kyle Pitts
• Zach Ertz
• Jeremy McNichols
• Jamison Crowder
• Luke McCaffrey
• Charlie Woerner
• Ben Sinnott
• John Bates
• Chris Rodriguez Jr

Favorite prop for the game: Terry McLaurin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards and 70+ (+115)