David Stowe 
Welcome to week 3 ladies and gentlemen! We have ourselves what would have been an amazing contest but two key injuries knocked us down a notch. It’s still an interesting game with an interesting narrative and a pretty concentrated played pool. I’m let’s not waste anymore time and get into Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints!
Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Saints:
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Alvin Kamara $17,700 Aaron Jones $17,100
Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $16,500
Contrarian #1: Latavius Murray $4,200
Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,200
Contrarian #3: Jared Cook $11,400
First thing and I think it’s not a surprise that Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones are going to be 1a and 1b in terms of ownership both overall and in the captain spot. Aaron Rodgers is without his top overall weapon as is Drew Brees which limits both teams due to lack of depth at the position. You will be hard pressed to find many lineups tonight who don’t fit both guys into it even at those high prices. Vegas currently has Green Bay as 3.5 point dogs which with the way they have looked thus far feels off. I know it’s the Superdome, but it’s an empty Superdome. At first glance I felt like this should be a pick-um and I’m standing by that. If you noticed above there is one top player that I don’t have as a potential captain and he just so happens to be the 41 year old QB who only attempted one throw of more than 20 yards last week in a game where they were trailing for the majority of the second half. It’s clear, Brees needs Thomas to be effective and in order to win they will need a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to accomplish that tonight. I think Jared Cook will be used a good deal more in the short passing game as a second option to Alvin this week as it looks like even crossing routes are becoming too difficult for Drew. Even without Davante Adams though it appears that Marques Valdez-Scantling has improved a good deal over last year and will at least warrant a look as a contrarian captain.
Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
To talk flex plays I need to talk script. I do expect this to stay very close and that is due to the lack of out number one receivers. Rodgers can still get a few passes off to a guy like Allen Lazard and even a Jace Sternberger or Robert Tonyan in order to save some salary which we need to pay up for our studs. I am however planting my flag today on Drew Brees. if I were to make ten lineups tonight I would have Drew in a max of two. His upside looks severely limited based on his price and I really think that money is better spent elsewhere. Mainly Kamara and Murray. Everyone is ready to say Green Bay’s run defense is finally decent. Um no it isn’t, they are still vulnerable it just so happens the the games were never in a positive script where the Vikings and Lions could continue to run it. Over the first two weeks they’ve given up 223 yards on 43 carries and 3 touchdowns. Sean Payton is smart enough to know that and will run the tandem as well as a few trick plays for…….Taysom Hill (I’m rolling my eyes) and end arounds for Emmanuel Sanders. I see this being a very ground heavy approach today and we may go well under the total of 52 so kickers and defenses are firmly in play today.
Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Taysom Hill, Saints D, Will Lutz
Packers: Allen Lazard, Jace Sternberger, Robert Tonyan, Packers D, Mason Crosby
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.27 Packers at Saints. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
