Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

This one feels a bit strange to me. Washington is 5-7 on the season and for the most part the offense has been largely inept but they sit at 2-2 since the return of Alex Smith and in the two games where he lost he put up 325 and 390 yard respectively. By no stretch do I think they will win and it was the easiest 4 game stretch that you could even have for a team. I just see signs of life from Washington and the Steelers tend to play down or up to their level of competition. You should largely be able to get who you want today with the highest price being Ben Roethlisberger at 15,900.

Chalk: Benny Snell $11,400

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger $15,900

Contrarian #1: Terry McLaurin $13,200

Contrarian #2: Diontae Johnson $14,100

Contrarian #3: JD Mckissic $7,800

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

Vegas: 43.5 Point total Steelers: –6.5

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, 10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to expect a good deal of defense and with Washington’s play style, Pittsburgh’s defense, and questionable offensive players I’m not going to argue with them. With the expectation that Pittsburgh will control this game Benny Snell is my lean for the big chalk on the day but I think it will be close. For Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, all of the Steelers receivers, and even the Steelers defense to be within a couple of percentage points so going captain will be tricky on that side.

My receiver’s lean for Pittsburgh is Diontae Johnson just due to the target volume over the last few weeks, but if you feel a certain way about Claypool or Juju I won’t talk you out of it. Where I think the captain play will be most interesting is on the Washington side of the ball. Terry McLaurin is an absolute monster and he has been QB proof in his short career. He has seen no less that seven target in any game this season and if the script matches Vegas, I don’t see 10-12 targets being hard to reach.

JD Mckissic is one that I know I have to explain. If you give me the finger and go Antonio Gibson I won’t blame you. Pass catching backs have had a measure of success against the Steelers and Ron Rivera clearly favors JD in passing down situations. It also helps that Alex Smith has the lowest average depth of target in the league. In both games where he was playing from behind he targeted Mckissic 14 and 15 targets with 17.2 and 17.9 DraftKings points in each. If you think Washington will trail you should at least consider JD in one or two of your builds.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both defenses and both kickers are firmly in play with a 43.5 point total and Pittsburgh’s tendency to play down to their level of competition.

Washington: Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, Cam Sims, Logan Thomas, Defense, Dontell Inman, Dustin Hopkins

Pittsburgh: Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Shuster, Eric Ebron, Defense, Matthew Wright, Ray Ray Mcloud (if using Steelers Defense)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!