David Stowe 
NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.
NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:
Chalk: Nick Chubb $16,800
Pivot: Jarvis Landry $14,700
Contrarian #1: Kareem Hunt $10,500
Contrarian #2: Daruis Slayton $9,300
Contrarian #3 Wayne Gallman $13,200
Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:
Vegas: 44.5 Point Total/Browns: -6.5
Weather: Mid/Upper 30’s, light wind
With Colt McCoy expected to take the helm once again Vegas is projecting this to be a messy, low scoring struggle with the Browns getting ahead early. Once thing that is strange with this one is the – 6.5 for the Browns. I know the Giants defense is underrated but there isn’t a defense in the league that can hold up to two pro bowl caliber running backs for 4 quarters when they don’t have an offense that can give them at least a little bit of a breather. That number feels like it should be at least -7.5 and at some point the Giants front seven will get worn out leaving Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plenty of room to run free so it should be no surprise this I think Chubb will be big chalk and Hunt his my first contrarian captain play. This thought process also dictates my pivot of Jarvis Landry. He’s been playing great football since OBJ went down. He catches everything under the sun and he’s even good to throw a touchdown every so often. The front seven is legit but New Yorks clear defensive weakness is the secondary. There just isn’t anyone back there who can stop Landry. I know we gave the Browns a hard time when it comes to the passing game but in several of those duds they were dealing with some of the worst wind I can recall seeing so I’m praying that a little of that still lingers in the back of peoples minds. While I don’t think the Giants will get much done offensively I do like Darius Slayton against the soft Cleveland secondary. Denzel Ward is a bit of a concern but the Browns play about 70 percent zone defense so the deep post, bunch formations, and double moves a perfect for Slayton to break one or two open downfield. You guys should know by now that I love Slayton against a Cover-2 Zone concept. With Evan Engram dealing with a calf issue Slayton is the clear preferred target for Colt. Wayne Gallman is the only other Giant I would consider at Captain due to McCoy’s tendency to check down and Gallman has proven himself to be a versatile back who can be used in any game script. Did I mention he has had double digit DK point outings in seven straight?
Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
If you are playing onslaught scripts both defenses are in play. The Giants can get to the QB causing Baker issues potentially an I just talked at length about how bad the Giants offense is. Low wind so both kickers are in play also. I’m going to list him below but be cautious with Evan Engram. He typically does poorly with soft tissue injuries and I don’t see him finishing this game. Austin Hooper is also I’m concerned with while he’s dealing with a neck issue. Keep an eye on Marvin Hall’s status everyone. If he plays for the Browns tonight that is your potential min price slate breaker!
Giants: Defense, Sterling Shepperd, Golden Tate, Evan Engram (Q, calf), Alfred Morris (eww), Dion Lewis (eww), Graham Gano
Browns: Defense, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Austin Hooper (Q, neck), Cody Parkey, Harrison Bryant, Marvin Hall (verify active)
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
