Uriah Wesson 
NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.
NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills:
Chalk: Josh Allen $18,300
Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger $16,200
Contrarian #1: Dionte Johnson $13,500
Contrarian #2: Stefon Diggs $15,000
Contrarian #3 James Conner $12,000
Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills:
Vegas: 48.5 Point Total/Bills: -1.5
Weather: Mid 30’s Wind less than 10MPH
After last week’s monster performance I would be surprised if anyone besides Josh Allen was the big chalk this evening. Given the Steeler’s recent poor performances it would appear that a little shine has disappeared from that Steelers defense. While the Steelers did look like hot garbage against Washington they have a habit of playing up or down to whatever level of competition they are facing and that has been the trend all season. So while others are expecting the Bills to roll I’d rather pivot over to Ben Roethlisberger for 2k less at captain and play for a bounce back.
Big Ben doesn’t have poor road splits this season and may come in at a hair lower in terms of ownership due to old habits. Dionte Johnson when healthy is Ben’s favorite target seeing 62 targets in the last five games and when healthy you can lock in a minimum of 10 targets and in three of the last four he’s exceeded 21 DK points.
On the Bills side of the ball I’d be crazy not to mention Stefon Diggs as a viable captain option as the teams clear number one option and John Brown still on the IR almost guaranteeing him double digit targets and 30+ DK point upside. Lastly there is one thing that has been missing over the last few weeks while the Steelers have seemed to sputter at times offensively. I know none of us want to play him but the offense runs better when James Connor is on the field and I’m sure Mike Tomlin is thinking the same.
Everyone who clamored all year for Benny Snell to take over the starting job got their chance and he was underwhelming. I have no problems putting a couple of lineups out there running a script where Connor takes over this game at the end in a scenario where Allen lays a dud and he get’s a td or two on the ground to finish things up.
Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
As usual you can consider both kickers in the flex for cheap access to points but with a 48.5 point total I would lean with no more than one defense in any line and I would keep it as a flex.
Bills: Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Zach Moss, Dawson Knox, Defense, Tyler Bass
Steelers: Juju Smith-Shuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, Defense , Chris Boswell
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
