David Stowe 
Week 9 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers
Chalk: Alvin Kamara $16,800
Pivot: Tom Brady $15,900
Contrarian #1: Drew Brees $15,000
Contrarian #2: Mike Evans $12,600
Contrarian #3: Michael Thomas $14,700
This one is incredibly interesting in terms of Showdown contests go with a number of narratives. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are going back and forth for the NFL’s touchdown record. Antonio Brown returns to action after a lengthy absence as does Michael Thomas. A little less talked about narrative is that Brees has been dealing with a right shoulder issue and I’m not sure of the severity, how long he’s dealt with it, or how it will affect him if at all. Vegas thinks that this will be a close shootout with a total of 50.5 and Tampa being 3.5 point favorites at home so they are thinking pickum. Alvin Kamara will always be chalk when he is in a showdown lineup and for good reason but I think if you were ever to go somewhere else at captain this is the week facing the best run defense in the NFL and arguably the best overall defense and with Michael Thomas looking to return to action potentially changing his target share just a bit through the air. I think the safest pivot will be Tom Brady with a full allotment of weapons, in primetime, after a rough outing against the Giants. The Saints secondary is nothing to be scared of and he will have what is arguably now the best WR core with Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate at tight end, and two backs in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette who can run inside and catch the ball out of the backfield. I really don’t think the Saints have a chance to stop them, our problem is picking the spots where the points will come from. From the Saints offense we only have 3 primary options tonight in Kamara, Thomas, and Brees so I’m really not going to spend much time there. Overall I count 10 different players on DraftKings the we could consider in your captain spot so my list is not comprehensive by any means tonight, the five up top are just the safest options in my opinion. I think for high upside low owned options Chris Godwin will be extremely low owned given his finger injury and I think everyone is gonna wait a week before running AB out there.
Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
There are just a plethora of Bucs that are worth considering tonight so I will list my flex plays in order of most to least favorite today. If you run a script where the game will be close like Vegas predicts load on on Bucs pass catchers and if you are running a couple of scrips where the Bucs roll over the Saints like I am it would be good idea to run a pass catcher or two with either Fournette or Jones in a 4-2 split with either Kamara or Thomas and whoever you can fit in as your second Saints player.
Buccaneers: Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Ryan Succop, Bucs Defense, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate
Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Will Lutz, Jared Cook, Latavius Murray
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
