David Stowe 
Welcome to week 4 ladies and gentlemen! Hopefully we are all taking a look at this shortly after counting all of our winnings from the main slate. We have another fantastic fantasy matchup this evening. We have a ton of injuries so there should be points to be had for minimal cost and plenty of solid opportunities to take advantage of. Let’s not waste anymore time get into Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.4 Falcons at Packers.
Week 4 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Falcons at Packers:
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
*Game Note: I’m going under the assumption that Adams will remain out.
With the number of injuries for both teams something has to give, I’m not really sure how they’ll hit the 56.5 total but that’s why we play. I have the expectation that Green Bay is going very run heavy due to the injuries and they will likely be successful in doing so. Aaron Jones and even Jamal Williams are going to be prioritized in my lineups over most the Packers pass catchers sans MVS. Atlanta is a little trickier, they are also injured but to this point everyone is still playing and they are 9 point dogs so the most logical route is leaning on two pass catchers and Matt Ryan.
Chalk: Aaron Jones $16,200
Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100
Contrarian #1: Matt Ryan $15,000
Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,500
Contrarian #3: Todd Gurley $12,300
***Extra Captain Play: Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones (If you think the Vegas total is correct and you expect the Falcons to play from behind they both need to be considered even injured)
Stoweby’s Showdown for 10.5 Falcons at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
To talk flex plays I need to talk script. The expectation according to the Vegas total of 56.5 and the -7 to the Packers the Falcons will be throwing a ton to catch up and the Packers will likely spend a large part of the second half grinding clock out. It makes a lot of sense that they run quite a bit either way given the number of receivers injuries for the Packers. The same could reasonably be said for the Falcons but it’s clear that they do not have the same luxury that the Packers half. So my script for the majority of my lineups will be pass catchers for the Falcons, a minimum of one Green Bay running back in every lineup (sometimes two), and only one Green Bay pass catcher maximum as I think they won’t be used a ton late.
Falcons: Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Brian Hill
Packers: Jamal Williams, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, Malik Taylor
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.5 Falcons at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
