David Stowe 
Week 8 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.29 Atlanta at Carolina
Chalk: Teddy Bridgewater $15,900 / Matt Ryan $16,500
Pivot: Mike Davis $13,200
Contrarian #1: Todd Gurley $12,600
Contrarian #2: Robby Anderson $13,800
Contrarian #3: Calvin Ridley $15,300
***Huge Caveat*** There is an outside chance that Christian McCaffery returns to action tomorrow. I’m going to need to look at what is said about his workload if he does but I think that will move Davis to flex only at best.
We have ourselves a 51 point implied total with the Panthers as 2.5 point favorites but we do have a few questions. Will Christian McCaffrey be removed from IR prior to the game? If so what do we do with him and Mike Davis? What should we do with Julio Jones on a short week with the injuries that he has been dealing with? Last, but certainly not least is the weather. I live about 2 hours north of Charlotte and we are smack in the middle of the path for a Hurricane Zeta. It should largely be out of the area by kickoff but we are likely going to have terrible field conditions and some lingering wind in the area so we may need to downgrade our downfield pass catchers a bit but we’ll make that determination tomorrow closer to kickoff. My selections for captain and flex are under the impression that the field is in good shape and the weather is out of the area. Pop into discord tomorrow night and join our livestream and I’ll give you my final take. At this point I think that the chalk ownership will fall on Teddy Bridgewater with the slight savings and Atlanta’s continued secondary issues followed closely by Matt Ryan. Mike Davis and Todd Gurley are next respectively with -200 and -121 odds to score. Considering this game (weather permitting) will likely be a shootout give me Robby Anderson and Calvin Ridley as my two pass catching captain options. I’m hoping we get a little recency bias towards DJ Moore with his big week and we can get Anderson at better ownership and Ridley is my lean due to Julio nursing numerous injuries all season and being on short rest, nothing more than that.
Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.29 Atlanta at Carolina Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
As usual kickers are a good way to get cheap access for points. Unless weather is really bad I would not mess with either defense tomorrow.
Falcons: Julio Jones, Youngho Koo, Hayden Hurst, Olamide Zaccheaus, Russell Gage, Brian Hill
Panthers: DJ Moore, Joey Sly, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.29 Atlanta at Carolina . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
