StixPicks 
NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game
This is it folks, the final Showdown slate of the NFL season and although we have two of the season’s laughing stocks going head to head if Washington wins they win the division. What that means for us is that we don’t have to worry about the teams packing it in during the second half. There are however, a ton of injuries to key guys which will more than likely make this an ugly one. But enough talk let’s dig into Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.
NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:
Chalk: Jalen Hurts $17,100
Pivot: Antonio Gibson $13,500
Contrarian #1: Logan Thomas $11,700
Contrarian #2: Jordan Howard/Boston Scott, $1,500/$2,100
Contrarian #3 Terry McLaurin $15,000
****Bonus Play**** Zack Ertz $6,900: He has not had a good year by any stretch but he is the ONLY tight end available for the Eagles. My only pause putting him up top is that it isn’t Wentz behind center but if he’s the guy, I’m gonna take a chance.
Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:
Vegas: 43 Point Total/Washington: -6.5
Weather: Upper 30’s with rain and wind around 10MPH
It has been a rainy, sloppy mess in the city of brotherly love and Vegas isn’t expecting much in term of scoring with a 43 point total. The number that is a little strange to me is that Washington is projected as a 6.5 point favorite. If you have ever heard me and Michael Rasile talk during our Thursday Night Showdown stream you’ve likely heard us talk about how bigger spreads don’t really make a ton of sense in low total games. Don’t get me wrong I do think this will be very low scoring with guys like Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Desean Jackson out for the Eagles and Alex Smith, Terry McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Antonio Gibson being limited due to injuries. My overarching approach in this game is going to be to limit my exposure in any one lineup to your “big play” pass catchers (not that we have a ton) due to the injuries, especially on the Washington side. Instead, I’m going to focus on the possession style, move the chain plays and defenses for my core.
The clear favorite that I think we will see everyone gravitate towards is Jalen Hurts, he provides a floor/ceiling with his ability to run that nobody else can give you in this contest. Of 10 lineups he will likely occupy four of my captain spots. The only other guys that interest me in any way for captains on the Eagles side are Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. I’m not sure which of these guys will get the bulk of the work so it would be a good idea to make a lineup and just but each in that spot so that you don’t miss out. The value provided by both will allow you to go anywhere you want for the rest of your lineup.
The Washington side of the ball is equally as frustrating and in many ways worse due to the uncertainty. Terry McLaurin is my final contrarian play but I really struggled back and forth with whether or not I would put him in there. He is only two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal. The field conditions being what they are means that on slip and he is gone. Additionally, if Washington gets ahead early I don’t see them putting him on the field. He is only playing because of the must win situation. I’ll have him in one lineup at captain, that’s it. The remainder of my lines for captain will likely revolve around Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. Logan has had 12 and 16 targets respectively in each of the last two weeks and with Alex Smith’s calf injury, Terry’s limitations, and the current weather conditions being what they are I see that continuing tonight. Antonio Gibson to this point is my favorite Washington player. He does carry a Q tag but this doesn’t seem like the same situation as Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin. Gibson has always sounded like this would be play where Alex and Terry are only in due to the scenario.
I do have one more low owned captain thought even though it isn’t listed above. I think this would be a good week to run a lineup or two with one or both defenses at captain. Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues in key offensive spots, the field will likely be a mess, and divisional contests tend to be lower scoring. My favorite of the two is actually Washington’s defense. They have been impressive all season and as dynamic as Hurts is in the early going he has had issues with ball security. He’s only lost one but he has actually fumbled the ball five times in the last two weeks and he threw two picks against Dallas last week. Players who fumble that much don’t tend to stay lucky over the long run.
Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
As I noted above both defenses are viable and given the low score being projected both kickers are firmly in play for a cheap way to get points. Temper your expectations when it comes to your flex plays. Points will likely be difficult to come by.
Washington: Defense, JD McKissic, Cam Sims, Dustin Hopkins, Dontrell Inman, Peyton Barber
Philadelphia: Defense, Zach Ertz, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Jake Elliott
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
