Uriah Wesson 
Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 3rd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints:
2020 Record: 12-4
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael
Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen
Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints
Overview:
When it comes to the Saints for the 2021 season we all have the same question: Will it be Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill behind center as the replacement for future Hall of Famer Drew Brees? I am going to try my best to parse through this very difficult scenario, but when drafting any of the offensive players this needs to be at the forefront of your mind. I love the visual representation that this heat map provides.
We all know by now that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael are among the most creative coaches when it comes to their play calling and in some cases too creative. The offensive line will be once again a top-eight unit led by tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk and the same offensive weapons Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, TreQuan Smith, and a healthy Michael Thomas. The only “key” offensive talent gone from last season is Jared Cook who managed 504 yards and seven touchdowns on only 37 receptions.
The defensive unit was top three in both offense and defense in terms of DVOA in 2020 but they lost Janoris Jenkins, Kwon Alexander, Sheldon Rankins, and Trey Hendrickson. They did what they could to address these losses by drafting defensive end Payton Turner, linebacker Pete Werner, and cornerback Paulson Adebo in the first three rounds. They should still be a very solid defensive unit overall but I am expecting at least a little regression in the early part of the season while the rookies get up to speed so that is something to keep an eye on if you are still playing seasonal leagues with team defenses.
Scheme
Offense: Run heavy with short passing routes (slants, outs, screens), read option with Hill. Traditional 12 and 21 personnel with more downfield routes (post, flys, deep crosses) with Winston.
Defense: 4-3 Base, 2 High Safeties, Heavy Blitz on 3rd Down with Cover 1
Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Targets:
***IMPORTANT UPDATE***
The Thomas injury changes the landscape
Alvin Kamara: ADP 3.6
If Taysom Hill ends up being the starting QB or if it even looks like it is leaning that way there is no way that I am taking Kamara at 3-4 overall. I honestly don’t even know if I would take him in the first round. Before you grab your pitchforks hear me out. In the 11 games where Brees was at QB Kamara averaged 12.45 carries for 63.18 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns which is not far off from the 15.5 attempts, 59.25 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The problem is Kamara’s receiving upside or lack thereof. With Hill, he caught 10 passes for 12.75 yards per game and no touchdowns while with Brees running things he averaged 6.63 catches, 64.1 yards per game, and five touchdowns. Basically, the short passing game that a traditional QB will use (like Winston) is replaced with the read option in Sean Payton’s play calling and that the single most important part of Alvin’s game from a fantasy viewpoint.
Much Shorter with Famous Jameis. He will push the ball downfield more than any of us have seen from the Saints in ages but Winston does not run much. If he wants the starting job he will have to be smarter with the ball and utilize the check-downs as so many of his turnovers came from the choice to extend plays beyond where he should have resulted in interceptions or fumbles. Kamara in this instance is appropriately priced around the third or fourth overall selection.
Michael Thomas: ADP 30.6 NEW ADP (Post Injury): 68.00 (97.00 Max)
We have a very small sample with the new ADP for Michael Thomas post ankle surgery news. I wish we would have known about this surgery happening so late but we work with what we’ve got. The best thing that I can do is read the tea leaves and tell you where I stand. Hint, not optimistic.
First, the surgery. We all know he had a high ankle sprain in week one of 2020. The thing that we didn’t necessarily know was that in addition to that he had a tear of the ankle deltoid ligament. What is baffling is that the only option for that tear is surgery. Rest does not help. He knew this through the entire 2020 season and offseason and chose to try rehab only and now here we are. He spent almost a full year with scarring in that ankle to go along with a potential lack of blood flow to the surrounding tissue possibly creating other problems that have not yet surfaced.
I said all of that to say all of this. I can not recommend Thomas anywhere on my board. We know the injury but we have no clue what further damage has taken place outside of this tear. There is no promise he will even see the field. The ankle is complicated medically and for the long-term health of Thomas, the Saints may choose to shut him down. I would rather take a chance on a WR2/WR3 that I know will see the field at the 80-90 ADP I see him settling at.
I love Thomas regardless of who is at quarterback and I am getting him anywhere I can. He is the only real passing option on that team and even injured he played incredibly well while Taysom was on the field. The one thing Brees and Hill have in common is they know to target Thomas early and often. In four starts Thomas was targeted 37 times, catching 30 of them for 343 yards. he gets a slight hit in touchdown equity due to the run heavy approach with Taysom but the zero TD’s was in part a fluke. If you extrapolate out to a full season I would expect to see between 1400-1500 yards and anywhere between 5-7 touchdowns for a back half of the third round pick.
If Jameis wins the job I would not be at all surprised if Thomas finished the season as the overall WR1. It is easy to forget but once upon a time Brees threw the ball downfield. In 2018 Drew Brees was 6th in the NFL in yards per attempt and in that season Michael Thomas caught 125 passes for 1405 yards and nine touchdowns. He had one injury-riddled season with what was essentially running back at QB and people are ready to write him off. I do not get this.
Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints
Latavius Murray: ADP 140.43
Murray is a guy that I would love to have on my roster as a standalone player if we get any kind of confirmation of Hill winning the job. Murray is the more traditional back and they used him much more effectively during the stretch when Hill was starting. in weeks 10 and 11 he carried the ball 31 times for 5.58 YPA, 173 yards, and two touchdowns. If the Saints choose to go with the run first option I can see Murray getting 12 or so touches per game to ensure they do not get Kamara hurt playing an inside run game that he really isn’t known for.
Adam Trautman: 166.3
I know I am sounding like a broken record but full fade with Hill at QB. If we get Winston Trautman is an interesting 15th round target for a tight end. I am probably not going to get much of him on the roster just due to the unsure nature of what is going on but Winston threw to his tight-ends a lot in Tampa, especially in the RedZone. For example, in 2018 between OJ Howard and Cameron Brate they accounted for 854 yards and 7 TD’s, 770 yards and 5 TD’s in 2019, and 1,023 yards and 12 TD’s in 2017. As I said, I am probably not going here but the case can certainly be made to take a share or two when it makes sense.
Jameis Winston: ADP 169.4
I’m going to keep both Hill and Winston quick. Both of their ADPs are great and the upside that they both provide in their way is well beyond how they are being drafted. If you want to draft both and stash one until we get some clarity on the situation that would be a solid late-round approach. For those of you with a short memory, Winston was a high-end QB1 before coming to New Orleans. Looking at the two Jameis has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. Just be prepared to see a ton of turnovers.
Taysom Hill: ADP 207
See above, slightly less upside.
Tre’Quan Smith: ADP 213.3 (New ADP after Thomas Injury): 149.00
Smith lands as the de-facto WR1 unless we hear otherwise or there is an acquisition. Even with the five round bump in ADP so long as we have Winston throwing the ball I am comfortable with the new average draft position. The reasons I liked him have not changed. Winston can make use of his speed in a way that Brees never could and he could be on his way to a breakout in 2021.
Only recommended as a late-round flier if Winston is throwing the ball. You can get him in the last round and they will need a number two receiver. Smith can get down the field in a hurry and has shown flashes of what could be but Brees just did not have the arm strength to utilize him. Winston will not have that problem. Smith had an 85.6% route participation percentage and typically saw an 80+percent snap share on a team that almost exclusively ran two and three-wide sets. you can get him in round 20 all day right now.
Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints
Final Thoughts:
The only thing that I am fairly certain of is that they will be a good team this year. How good? I have no clue. They will have a solid defense but I have no clear read on this team without knowing who will be under center. I like the defense a little more with Hill under center from a defensive perspective but the upside is so much higher offensively with Jameis throwing it. Hopefully, we will get clarity early in training camp in which case I will adjust my projection appropriately.
Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
