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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 9 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. After a MONSTER Week 8, let’s roll right into another juicy slate!
*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
LAC/PHI
MIN/BAL
GB/KC
HOU/MIA
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)
Herbert season is officially back for me this week despite the let-down in Week 8 when New England completely took the air out of the ball and ran it down the Chargers’ throat. Honestly, every team should adapt that same game-plan against this putrid Chargers’ run defense, but I don’t see Nick Sirianni sticking to a run game in a game that will be high in pace and back and forth in scoring. Justin Herbert grades number one in the AETY Model in expected passing yards this weekend and he also offers us significant leverage on the 35% ownership tag on running back Austin Ekeler.
Ekeler can certainly have a great game here… I’m not saying you should fade him, but if his production comes via the pass like it usually does, Herbert will correlate well with that ownership on Ekeler. If the Chargers can get ahead early, this gamescript is going to bode well for a shootout and I’m all for it with Justin Herbert projected for 3-5% ownership. You can make a sexy game-stack with some of the pairings/run-backs below.
Key Pairing(s): Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams
Key Run-back(s): Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, Kenneth Gainwell (yes, the guy 30% of the field played last week, lol. Now is the time to play him at 1% ownership in a gamescript that doesn’t include Philadelphia being up by 40 points).
Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD)
I’m not in love with Mahomes this week but I’ll always go heavily overweight on Patrick Mahomes when he’s under 10% in ownership projection. The reason I do not love this spot as much as I want to is due to the Packers’ incredibly low pace of play… with Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers now out, I cannot imagine they speed up the offense whatsoever as they lean on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
Having said that, I just can’t envision a world where Mahomes doesn’t light the world on fire in this matchup and declare on the FOX Game of the Week that the Chiefs’ offense is just fine.
Key Pairing(s): Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Darrel Williams
Key Run-back(s): Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Davante Adams
Tyrod Taylor ($5,000 / $6,900 FD)
Likely a DraftKings ONLY play for me, but Tyrod Taylor is returning under center for the Houston Texans to take on Miami and their 26th ranked passing defense. It’s absolutely gross, but a semi-dual-threat quarterback at $5K against a terrible defense (and a game with a relatively high total) is something I’m interested in this week. I personally will be pairing him with Nico Collins and using a Miami run-back due to the lack of defense on both sides of the field this week. If you can stomach that build, you can afford the world in the rest of your lineup.
Key Pairing(s): Nico Collins, Brandin Cooks
Key Run-back(s): Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin
Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)
Dalvin Cook grades out as the third best running back in Week 9 on the AETY Model and will be a massive focal point of this Vikings’ offense as they try to keep Lamar Jackson off of the field. In a game with the highest total on the slate and the highest owned quarterback on the slate (Lamar Jackson), why does no one want to play Dalvin Cook on the other side? Baltimore’s running defense is nothing like it used to be.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)
There’s no leverage in this play at all as he’s likely the highest owned running back and yes, usually I never write about the high-chalk players in this article, but for clarity, Ezekiel Elliott is my highest rostered player in Week 9. I’m in love with this matchup against a Denver team that appears to have thrown in the surrender towel. In addition, La’el Collins returns to the Dallas offensive line… let’s roll.
Contrarian Values:
Zack Moss
Devontae Booker
Kenneth Gainwell
A.J. Dillon
Darrel Williams
Eli Mitchell (if Jeff Wilson is inactive)
Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($7,500 DK / $7,600 FD) / Adam Thielen ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)
Extremely affordable on FanDuel but still in play on DraftKings. Similar to the Dalvin Cook write-up, NO ONE is playing Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. The Baltimore secondary is trash and currently grades 23rd in pass defense DVOA. I usually prefer to focus on Thielen against man coverage (Baltimore’s tendency) and Jefferson against zone coverage, but they’re both in an excellent gamescript at borderline zero ownership.
Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)
Like Ezekiel Elliott, I’m just adding Keenan Allen in the article for the transparency. Allen is a core play for me this weekend as I always pick on the inside of the Philadelphia secondary. He makes a perfect pairing for my favorite GPP quarterback in Justin Herbert and grades out as a top-six value in the AETY Model.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)
Hello, Mr. Jerry Jeudy. We’re going to pray on the recency bias of DFS players and go at Jerry Jeudy the week after he was 15-20% owned and let down the DFS community. The best part of this play is that he correlates perfectly on the other side of my love for Ezekiel Elliott and also is massive leverage over a 40% owned Broncos tight-end, Albert “O” chalk week.
I’m not saying Albert “O” is a bad play by any means, but if you can find a way to pivot to Jerry Jeudy on the other side of your Elliott builds, you’re not going to regret it. Jourdan Lewis is one of the weaker spots on this Dallas defense and look for Teddy Bridgewater to use the middle of the field a lot on Sunday as they play catch-up. As much as Noah Fant helps Albert “O”, this is still a significant bump up to Jerry Jeudy at 2-5% ownership… Leverage City!
Honorable Mention: Mecole Hardman, Nico Collins, Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel
Tight Ends
Honestly, my tight-end pool is directly from the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown. My priorities in GPP would go as follows:
- Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
- Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
- Darren Waller ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)
- Mike Gesicki ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)
- Tyler Conklin ($3,000 DK / $5,200 FD)
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
