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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 5 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
– Giants / Cowboys
– Titans / Jaguars
– 49ers / Cardinals
– Packers / Bengals
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD)
I was a bit surprised when the AETY Model spit out the Titans/Jaguars game as one of it’s favorites in terms of “stack-ability” but when you look at the metrics, this game should offer little-to-none on the defensive side of things… leading to a lot of potential for points. The Titans’ defense grades 25th in pass-defense DVOA while Jacksonville is dead last (32nd). Despite Tennessee struggling to stop the run, and Jacksonville really toning down their fast-paced offense last week against Cincinnati, the AETY Model projects Lawrence for over 35 pass attempts. At these price-tags, I’m going to take a shot on a 2% owned, Trevor Lawrence in what should be one of the sneakier (but ugly) shootouts on the slate.
You want to have some salary relief? Stack up Lawrence, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and run it back with Derrick Henry and AJ Brown.
Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD)
When looking at the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, the Dallas Cowboys grade out as the number one offense overall for Week 5 NFL DFS. In addition, Dak Prescott equates a 3.6x value on this crazy cheap price-tag on DraftKings. He’s going to be popular, but like last week when we were all in on Jalen Hurts, I don’t really see a need to get much different at the Quarterback position while Prescott is at home against the 24th ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA. You know who to stack him up with!
Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD)
The Giants’ run defense is arguably as bad (if not worse) than their pass defense and again, I want exposure to this Cowboys offense as they are atop of the Team Totals Tool tab on Win Daily Sports. He’s currently (-150) to score a touchdown and right at 100 all-purpose yards at the Sportsbooks… the knee injury should be nothing to scare you off of Elliott at sub-10% ownership in an excellent matchup with the highest total on the slate.
The Cowboys offense has been incredibly efficient (5th in pass offense DVOA, 1st in run offense DVOA) so I’m not totally against the idea of using Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott together despite the somewhat negative correlation in NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Nick Chubb ($6,700 DK / $7,500 FD)
Welcome back to the GPP article, Mr. Nick Chubb! If you’ve noticed a theme, we’re always looking to attack the Chargers’ on the ground as they’re giving up a ridiculous 5.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers. At 5% ownership, I absolutely love the idea of rolling with Nick Chubb against this Chargers run defense that bleeds points to opposing running backs. His props at the Sportsbooks are right there with Ezekiel Elliott and the matchup is better than Elliott’s… If I trust the AETY Model, I trust Nick Chubb here to blow up the slate at extremely low ownership.
Alexander Mattison ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)
If Dalvin Cook is ruled out Sunday morning, Alexander Mattison will be a stone-cold lock in all of my lineups. Simple as that, I don’t care what his ownership turns out to be.
Aaron Jones ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)
As much as I love Davante Adams (likely to be 20% owned in Week 5 NFL DFS) in a bounce back spot against the Bengals’ secondary, the AETY Model has a lot of love for Aaron Jones. If you’ve been with Win Daily for the last couple of years, you know that when the AETY Model says to play Aaron Jones, you play Aaron Jones. Like Chubb, Aaron Jones is likely to come in around 5% in ownership giving us a lot of differentiation in our NFL DFS GPP builds.
Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Leonard Fournette
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
Another sneaky stack that grades out incredibly well for me this week is Kirk Cousins and his number one wideout, Justin Jefferson. The Detroit Lions secondary is absolutely demolished with injury and grades 30th in pass defense DVOA. Justin Jefferson is one of the elite route runners in the NFL and should have an absolute field day at home in the dome against the Lions. The AETY Model projects Justin Jefferson for right around 90 receiving yards and 7 receptions, grading him as the #2 overall wide receiver on this slate behind Davante Adams.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,600 DK / $7,500 FD)
No idea what FanDuel was doing here with D-Hop’s pricing, lol. Hopkins is still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and I want to get exposure to this division game with a total right around 50 points. D-Hop will see a lot of Emmanuel Moseley in coverage and that is a matchup I’m always interested in attacking.
Ja’Marr Chase ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)
With no Jaire Alexander, the Packers’ defense is honestly atrocious grading 20th in pass defense DVOA (that was with Alexander healthy) and 27th in run defense DVOA. With Joe Mixon banged up and highly questionable to suit up, look for the Bengals to go back to their Zac Taylor roots in a more up-tempo, no-huddle passing attack. Chase should be price in the low-to-mid $6K range on DraftKings so let’s take advantage of the savings while they’re available.
Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD)
Don’t get me wrong, I love Laviska Shenault again this week (AETY Model’s #1 wide receiver value), but let’s not forget about the slate-breaking upside in Marvin Jones. Jones’ enters this week leading the Jaguars with a 23% target share and a ridiculous 44% red-zone target share. Shenault is an excellent value overall but Marvin Jones is the player on this Jacksonville team that offers NFL DFS GPP winning upside, especially when he’s projected to be 2-5% owned.
AJ Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)
Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that we’ll see AJ Brown unowned as he returns to the field in Week 5 as we expected earlier in our research this week, but again, I want exposure to the Titans/Jaguars game and AJ Brown is price at a nice discount on both sites. We know where the production is going to come from on both sides of the football:
– Derrick Henry
– AJ Brown
– Marvin Jones
– Laviska Shenault
– James Robinson
One of the issues I have with other game stacks and what not in DFS is guessing where the production is going to come from. That is a non-issue with this game. You know who the studs are, play them!
Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Brandon Aiyuk, Allen Robinson, Devonta Smith, DJ Moore, Henry Ruggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Curtis Samuel
NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends
*If you can afford Darren Waller, you play him. It looks like the majority of the field is going to go down to punt-priced, chalk. I don’t hate any of the chalk options this week, but the easiest way to differentiate in a positive way, it’s avoiding punt-play chalk tight-ends.
Mike Gesicki ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD)
We all know you cannot run the football against Tampa Bay and the Bucs are a 10-point favorite here giving the Dolphins the pass-happy gamescript as they play catch-up from the get-go. The Bucs grade 25th in DVOA against the tight-end and also give up a significant amount of fantasy points to slot receivers. Mike Gesicki happens to play both of those positions.
Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
