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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 3 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
– Chargers / Chiefs
– Seahawks / Vikings
– Bucs / Rams
– Falcons / Giants
– Colts / Titans
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)
Well, well, well… Wilson is becoming a staple in this article and I’m here for it. Wilson AGAIN grades out as a top-two QB in the AETY Model just behind Kyler Murray (who is on another planet right now). As you saw last week and the week before that, this Seattle offense is E-F-F-I-C-I-E-N-T. Honestly, this may be the best matchup for Wilson and company against a banged-up, Vikings’ defense that just gave up 400 passing yards to Kyler Murray. Enjoy the fireworks for the third week in a row.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)
Much more affordable on FanDuel, but Mahomes falling under 12% in ownership should be crime. This game against a sub-par Chargers’ secondary (without Chris Harris) currently has a total of 55 points… that bodes well for fantasy points on both sides of this game. We don’t need to write more about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. You NEED exposure to this game and you know who to pair him with.
Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)
Welcome back to the passing attack, Mr. Austin Ekeler. It was a strange Week 1 outing for Ekeler who was nursing a hamstring injury coming into the season, but we saw things go back to normal for a Joe Lombardi offense, as Ekeler saw nine targets in the passing attack in Week 2. Yes, he only had nine carries, but we don’t tout Ekeler for his rushing abilities, those are just icing on the cake.
This game is going to be a shoot-out and the Chargers will heavily rely on Ekeler as they likely play catchup from the get-go. He will be able to provide plenty of rushing/receiving upside this week against the Chiefs’ 32nd rank run defense (in terms of DVOA) who will also be without Frank Clark this week.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)
With or without Carson Wentz, I absolutely love this matchup against the Titans for a “get-right” spot for Jonathan Taylor. The combination of Frank Reich’s inside and outside running zone schemes should provide plenty of breakaway alleys for Jonathan Taylor against an undisciplined defensive line in Tennessee (that ranks 24th in run defense DVOA). He’s going to be sub-5% owned on DraftKings and offers a nice run-back to all of my AJ Brown and Julio Jones shares.
Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, Mike Davis, Javonte Williams
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)
In my opinion, Metcalf is way too cheap on both sites, but dear lord is he a freesquare on FanDuel. I know, you’ve seen Metcalf in all of the GPP articles here thus far in 2021 and he’s let us down for the most part… but he’s going to blow up soon and this is a prime spot against an aging Patrick Peterson and one of the worst corners in the NFL, Bashaud Breeland. The Seahawks have yet to scheme a deep ball for DK Metcalf (Lockett currently has ~100 more air yards logged) and with the speed/size differential (and the dome), look for Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron to change that.
Tyler Lockett is also in another smash spot. All in all, we want some Seahawks shares yet again in Week 3.
Justin Jefferson ($7,200 DK / $7,400 FD)
Please see the Cash Game Checkdown for my Week 3 love affair with Justin Jefferson. Love me a “mini-stack” of Metcalf and Jefferson for the afternoon hammer.
Robert Woods ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD)
Yes, Cooper Kupp killed me last week and yes, he’s likely to be 25% owned again in Week 3. I’m 100% okay if you want to go back to the well on Cooper Kupp, but Robert Woods is significantly cheaper with very similar player props. When in doubt, trust Vegas.
I’m taking the savings here and likely will be incredibly overweight on Robert Woods this week, as he too will have his fair share of Ross Cockrell in coverage against a banged-up Tampa secondary.
AJ Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD)
Another criminally-low priced number one wide receiver… We’ve been picking on Rock Ya-Sin, Kenny Moore, and the rest of this Colts’ secondary early on this year and I’ll be doing so again in Week 3. AJ Brown is primed up for a massive game sooner than later and I think we finally see him top 50 receiving yards in 2021 matchup (the AETY Model projects for over 80).
Brown currently sits 9th in the NFL in air yards with absolutely nothing to show for it. I’m not a huge air yards guy, but sometimes you just need to trust the data. Seattle made it a priority to hit AJ Brown with a purpose last week and it looked like he was a bit scared to run his normal crossing routes against that bruising, yet beatable secondary. The Colts will not punish him like Seattle did and this will be a breakout game for Mr. Brown.
Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Mecole Harman
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)
Absolute smash play for me on DraftKings at sub $5K. How did his price go down? The Giants secondary is rough outside of James Bradberry and he will have his hands full with Calvin Ridley. With Russell Gage OUT, Pitts’ expected target share takes a big jump upwards against a Giants’ defense that runs a lot of man-coverage. You simply cannot cover Kyle Pitts 1-on-1.
This is the breakout game for Kyle Pitts and I want you all to have some exposure to him in your NFL DFS GPP builds. He’s a perfect run-back with a chalky Saquon Barkley.
Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee, Jack Doyle, Jared Cook, Logan Thomas
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
