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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and I absolutely loved to see Win Daily start off with a NFL DFS GPP bang! Thank you to all of the folks who ate the Marquez Callaway and Elijah Moore chalk, we at Win Daily thank you!
For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Russell Wilson ($7,500 DK / $8,500 FD)
Well, I’m going right back to the well in Week 2 with this newly designed Seahawks’ offense ran by Shane Waldron. Wilson grades out as the second overall point scorer in the AETY Model just behind Kyler Murray. As you saw last week, this Seattle offense is E-F-F-I-C-I-E-N-T. Last week’s matchup was significantly tougher on paper and slower in expected pace and Russ still cooked.
This week, it’s the absolute nut matchup against a Titans’ secondary that grades out 30th in AETY’s passing defense… Yikes! In addition, the total in this game currently sits at 55 points (sheesh!). Let’s go right back to a sub-10% owned Russell Wilson in NFL DFS GPP builds and pair him up with DK Metcalf and/or Tyler Lockett. Enjoy the show.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,300 DK / $7,300 FD)
As much as I love Russell Wilson, I equally love Ryan Tannehill this week with his projected ownership of two percent! Two percent? Again, the total in this game is at 55 points, the number two expected pace, and little to no defense whatsoever. Tannehill has the best receiving core he’s ever had and also adds a lot of sneaky value with his legs (especially in the red-zone). If you don’t love your build due to the $1,200 increase in salary (on DK) with Russell Wilson, Tannehill has the skill set and matchup to meet/exceed Russell’s expected fantasy output.
All in all, I want, no I need, exposure to this Titans/Seahawks afternoon battle.
Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $8,000 FD)
Exposure to the Titans/Seahawks game. This Seattle run defense is rather solid on paper but just gave up a significant chunk of total yardage to the Colts’ pair of running backs. Sure, a lot of that was done through the air, but again, the pace of this game is likely to bode well for fantasy points (not to mention Derrick Henry spent a lot of the off-season working on his pass catching and also saw four targets last week).
Henry is always one play away from breaking the slate and I will be locking him in in NFL DFS GPP lineups at a minimum to get a piece of the Titans’ offense (you can certainly full-on stack this game). On FanDuel, this price-tag is criminal, lock him in!
Miles Sanders ($6,900 DK / $6,300 FD)
Miles Sanders is likely to come into this slate under 5% in total ownership yet again and he’s a featured piece on Stoweby’s Week 2 Low Ownership Plays. I cannot agree with Stoweby more on his evaluation for Miles Sanders this week going up against a 49ers defense that might-as-well be called the walking wounded. Look for Nick Sirianni to run it down San Francisco’s throat with Miles Sanders and also some check-down magic in the flats with Sanders’ increasing expected opportunity share.
Javonte Williams ($4,400 DK / $5,500 FD)
The Broncos’ rookie did in fact have more carries than Melvin Gordon in his debut last week against the Giants but all the fantasy thoughts go right to Gordon since he broke off the long touchdown run. No lies, Gordon looked incredibly sharp and youthful on that carry (topping 21MPH with his legs), but this is still a damn-near 50/50 timeshare.
In no way am I saying Williams is a lock to hit 3x value, but if I follow the AETY Model, the Broncos have the second highest (yes, I know, that’s crazy) Adjusted Expected Team Total on this slate! Due to my plays above and my love for these afternoon game-stacks, I need salary relief and Javonte Williams offers just that (in addition to significant touchdown equity according to the AETY Model).
Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf ($7,600 DK / $7,000 FD)
See my Wilson write-up as to why I love Metcalf yet again this week. This secondary is AWFUL and Metcalf simply cannot be covered. We didn’t see a ton of Metcalf last week as Waldron loved moving Lockett around to take advantage of the Colts’ cover-three, but Metcalf still found a way to have a solid game. He’s going to go off a bunch this year and it starts this week.
Like Derrick Henry, his pricing on FanDuel is criminally low.
AJ Brown ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD)
Game-stack the key stakeholders in this Titans/Seahawks matchup. Tre Flowers is bad and he’s going to look worse on Sunday having to stand in front of AJ Brown for most of this shootout.
Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)
Simply way too cheap on DraftKings for a player with an AETY-Model-backed 30% expected target share. Using Mixon on one side and Allen Robinson on the other is a great way to get a little different on a slate with such condensed chalk in that Cowboys/Chargers game.
DeVonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD) / Robert Woods ($5,700 DK ONLY) / Ja’Marr Chase ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
When we’re paying up so much for these core-stacks and exposure to guys like Derrick Henry, DK Metcalf, etc., we’re going to need some mid-tier value. These three guys are the only AETY Model wide receivers priced in the $5K range that grade out for greater than 2.7x value. I personally love them all again this week (especially Robert Woods while everyone flocks to Cooper Kupp who had a big week due to a broken play by a broken Bears’ defense).
Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Mike Williams, DJ Moore, Marquez Callaway
Wide Receiver Punt Plays
Trying something new this week for you all as this slate is built different for my expected path to success. Again, we need salary relief and we want exposure to these games with extremely high totals (unless you’re on FanDuel, the pricing this week is ridiculously easy to build around). Here are some guys that mainly fit that narrative and offer a lot of salary relief…
– Terrace Marshall ($3,300 DK ONLY)
– Jalen Guyton ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
– Cedrick Wilson ($3,100 DK / $4,900 FD)
– Josh Reynolds ($3,000 DK / $4,500 FD) *extremely large field GPP only*
– AJ Green ($3,700 DK / $5,300 FD)
Tight Ends
George Kittle ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)
On a slate without Travis Kelce, how the hell is George Kittle projected for 5-8% in ownership? This is the easiest pivot in any lineup to get different and get different in a strong way. While everyone flocks to Jared Cook and Noah Fant (those guys are fine too, just find a way to get different in those builds), George Kittle is the forgotten son who will break this slate open early in those first batch of games.
Kyle Pitts ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD)
Another easy pivot to a guy that burned everyone last week. This is the matchup Pitts will see 10-targets in as the Falcons are chasing their tail all day long in Tampa as they’re a 13-point underdog in a game with a 51-point total. I absolutely love getting a lot of exposure to Kyle Pitts this week in NFL DFS GPP (and cash) lineups.
Honorable Mention: Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, Dalton Schultz
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
