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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 13 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
LAC/CIN
WAS/LV
SF/SEA
IND/HOU
TB/ATL
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $8,200 FD) / Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD)
Despite any ownership projection, I’ll be heavily interested in both signal callers Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in a game with a 50.5 point total which is tied for the highest on the slate (TB/ATL). If I had to choose one, it would likely be Herbert as the passing volume for the Chargers is second to only Tom Brady and the Bucs, but the AETY Model loves the expected pace on both sides of this game and the condensed target shares by both teams for stacking purposes.
On DraftKings, these guys are way too cheap for the expected outputs on both sides, but Burrow’s ownership is projected to be under 5% in comparison to Justin Herbert around 12-15%.
LAC Key Pairing(s) / Run-backs: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler
CIN Key Pairing(s)/ Run-backs: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins
Taylor Heinicke ($5,600 DK / $7,100 FD)
The second game of my GPP interest this weekend will be in Las Vegas featuring two of the weaker defenses in the NFL. The Washington Football Team grades 31st in overall defense DVOA while the hosting Las Vegas Raiders grade 24th. Assuming these two teams play to their true colors and bleed offensive production from the jump, this game should offer a ton of condensed, fantasy upside. Heinicke also offers a little upside with his rushing ability, leaving him as one of my favorite NFL DFS GPP quarterbacks at sub-5% ownership and perfect leverage (or additional pairing) to Antonio Gibson chalk.
Key Pairing(s): Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson. Logan Thomas
Key Run-back(s): Hunter Renfrow, Foster Moreau
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300 DK / $7,000 FD)
One thing I love the most is praying on the recency bias of DFS players. Last week, everyone wanted to take the savings and eat the Tyrod Taylor chalk in a home game against the Jets. Wouldn’t you know, Tyrod Taylor let them down. This week, Tyrod is my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP punt-play of the week at the quarterback position in a gamescript that actually promotes a healthy passing narrative for Tyrod Taylor as a 10-point underdog to Jonathan Taylor and company. Why people chased the Tyrod love last week against the Jets is beyond me, but if you like Tyrod, this would be the game to play him against a Colts’ pass-funnel defense where he’ll be chasing points early.
He’s still Tyrod Taylor and it’s still the Texans, they can always sh** the bed. Proceed with caution.
Key Pairing(s): Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins
Key Run-back(s): Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.
Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
I’m pretty much locked into Jonathan Taylor and the value chalk running backs of Elijah Mitchell and Antonio Gibson. I will have to get different elsewhere in my lineups as you’ll read in this article. Outside of those three, here’s who will be core players in my NFL DFS GPP player pool…
Joe Mixon ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD)
Joe Mixon around 10% ownership in one of my favorite games on the slate to attack? Yes, please. We don’t need to go into more detail on Chargers’ 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA).
Saquon Barkley ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)
Saquon Barkley is still Saquon Barkley but priced like Josh Jacobs and James Robinson, lol. Barkley does not have a ton of “Vegas love” with rushing props in the mid-50’s, but the upside with Barkley is that he can always break one off and fill up the box score with his pass catching abilities, especially against a Miami defense that runs a lot of Cover-Zero.
Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Austin Ekeler, James Conner
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD)
Criminal price on FanDuel, but always in play with the volume on DraftKings. The AETY Model has Jefferson as the true WR2 on this slate, right behind Cooper Kupp. This secondary for Detroit is borderline practice-squad and will not be able to contain the pristine route running of Jefferson.
Terry McLaurin ($7,500 DK / $7,200 FD)
The player with the highest upside in one of my favorite games to get exposure to at under 5% ownership. We always pick on the Raiders’ secondary that grades 25th in pass defense DVOA. If this games shoots out like the AETY Model projects it will, Terry McLaurin will be in an excellent spot for a ceiling game of 7+ receptions, 100+ yards and 22+ fantasy points.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD)
No Asante Samuel Jr. and a relatively banged up Chargers’ secondary as a whole… Ja’Maar is due for another blow-up game and as long as this one goes up-paced, Chase is in line for a monster output in addition to all of the key players on this Bengals’ offense.
Nico Collins ($3,100 DK / $5,200 FD)
Alright, it’s time… the Nico Collins breakout game is upon us! For those of you that have been with Win Daily for a while (we greatly appreciate you), you know how much I love the upside of Nico Collins. I don’t expect 15+ points, but at damn-near site minimums and no Danny Amendola, we should finally see a 70% or greater snap share for Collins in a gamescript that should heavily lean towards Texans’ pass-catchers. We always pick on Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes, so let’s give the rookie a shot here in lineups we need salary relief.
Honorable Mention: DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Van Jefferson, Josh Reynolds
NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends
As mentioned in the Cash Game Checkdown,
This week is rather simple for me at tight-end. You’re either punting down to Foster Moreau with Darren Waller out with injury, or riding one of the higher priced tight-ends of:
– Logan Thomas
– Rob Gronkowski
– Mark Andrews
– George Kittle: absolutely love him as a run-back to low-owned Russel Wilson stacks and leverage off of Eli Mitchell chalk. At 5% ownership, no one has the upside George Kittle has at the tight-end position this weekend.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Kyle Pitts
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
