brgrewe@gmail.com 
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 11 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.
*We all know where the chalk (Bucs, Chargers, Panthers) is going to be and as stated above, I’m not here to tell you not to play those games in GPP… I love those games as well.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
TB/IND
MIN/SF
ATL/JAX
GB/LAR
LAC/DEN
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD)
Alright, we’re on the first damn player in the article and it’s already time to throw-up. There’s multiple paths to failure when rostering a guy like Trevor Lawrence. I know that, you know that, we all know that. My main concern isn’t the Jacksonville offense (which is scary to say), it’s the absolute pathetic effort we’ve seen from Atlanta over the past month. These guys have absolutely no fight in them whatsoever and I’m extremely concerned they do not push the pace and keep Jacksonville’s passing game active. Having said that, this is a matchup of two of the league’s worst defenses, we should see some offense… I hope.
Behind only the New York Jets, Atlanta’s defense gives up the most points to opponent offenses in the NFL and the AETY Model agrees… grading out Jacksonville’s offense as the 5th highest, ceiling-touchdown equity on the slate. It’s gross, but at 1-2% ownership, I’ll take a shot on Trevor Lawrence as big-time leverage off of one of the highest owned running backs on the slate in James Robinson, but mainly for what it allows me to afford with the rest of my build. Let’s get weird!
*At this low of ownership, you do not need to force a pairing or run-back, but with no Jamal Agnew, the target-share is rather condensed (or so I hope) on the Jacksonville side of the ball. With Atlanta as a run-back (again, likely not necessary), you know exactly where the production will likely come from.
Key Pairing(s): Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, James Robinson
Key Run-back(s): Kyle Pitts
Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD)
Continuing the theme of picking on pass-funnel defenses leads us back to Kirk Cousins, who low-key has been a top-eight fantasy quarterback this year. This Vikings/49ers game has the second highest total on the slate with little-to-no ownership at all and I love the simple “stack-ability” we get with Minnesota. I’ll roll the dice backing Cousins and this Vikings’ offense in NFL DFS GPP builds against the 49ers 22nd ranked pass defense (DVOA).
Key Pairing(s): Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Tyler Conklin
Key Run-back(s): George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk
Jalen Hurts ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD)
Jalen Hurts is officially the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy football this season and comes into the week off of a MONSTER fantasy performance in Week 11. His price went significantly up across all NFL DFS outlets, but his ownership did not. I’m seeing Jalen Hurts projected for 5-8% ownership and that is music to my ears as a perfect leverage spot to combat Miles Sanders nut chalk week.
Although the outcome may not be the same, this is the EXACT situation Ghost and I talked about on the livestream last week when we discussed the Packers’ passing attack in NFL DFS GPP builds to leverage ourselves against the AJ Dillon chalk… those lineups absolutely destroyed the DFS community.
Key Pairing(s): Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Key Run-back(s): Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley
Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Herbert
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD)
Way too cheap on FanDuel, but still a great, low-owned play on DraftKings. Anytime we can get Dalvin Cook under 8% ownership in a high-total game, we need to seriously consider rostering him. As much as I like Kirk Cousins, I equally like this spot for a dual-threat running back with extreme red-zone equity in Dalvin Cook.
Najee Harris ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD)
Najee Harris under 10% ownership? What doesn’t this guy do? If the Steelers end up playing from behind, he’s extremely active in the passing game, which bodes well for us on DraftKings. If the Steelers get a lead early and sit on the ball a bit more, Najee Harris will get 20+ carries. If he can get into the box, he can break this slate wide open.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)
Stupid pricing on DraftKings and likely will not be an under the radar play by any means, but if you need salary relief with 18+ fantasy point upside, look no further than Henderson here against a banged up Packers’ defense that grades 26th against the run (DVOA).
Javonte Williams ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD)
If you have been with Win Daily for more multiple NFL DFS seasons, you know I always love rookie running backs after a bye-week. Pair that with my love for picking on the NFL’s worst run defense(32nd in run defense DVOA) in the Los Angeles Chargers and you have yourself a 5% owned lottery ticket this weekend… who also is a direct pivot off of Miles Sanders chalk.
Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, James Robinson
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
Please see the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for more on Justin Jefferson.
DeVonta Smith ($6,400 DK / $6,400 FD)
To add on to the leverage against Miles Sanders, I certainly have to have interest in DeVonta Smith at 3-5% ownership. Incredibly affordable on FanDuel and allows you to get your exposure to TB/IND or whatever game it is you’re interested in the most, but still an excellent NFL DFS GPP play on DraftKings. DeVonta has recorded a ~30% target share over the past few weeks and should have no issue burning James Bradberry on a deep ball or two to smash his value.
Van Jefferson Jr. ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD)
Van Jefferson is still the big-play, value wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams, not Odell Beckham Jr. Although we’re very likely to see a much higher snap share for Odell as opposed to what he saw in Week 10 for his debut, Van Jefferson won’t leave the field. If Van Jefferson can get lined up with Green Bay’s Rasul Douglas, Van should be able to put on a show whenever the ball isn’t going to Henderson or Cooper Kupp.
Dez Fitzpatrick ($3,200 DK / $5,000 FD)
The rookie out of Louisville is only in this article as a source of “punt-value” so please temper your expectations and do not pair him with another low-floor, punt play… that is a recipe for disaster. I really love his big body and athleticism, something that Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook really don’t possess. His route running did get him in a bit of trouble last week causing Tannehill to throw one of his many interceptions but, on the bright side, Fitzpatrick did lead this wide receiver core in snap share. In my opinion, Fitzpatrick is the only thing worth watching on this Tennessee offense right now.
Honorable Mention: Adam Thielen, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel
NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends
This week, I’m just going to list my player pool at the tight-end position with a little summary as to why I’m interested.
- George Kittle – sub 10% ownership with extreme touchdown equity in a game I think goes well over the total. Also a nice run-back to my Minnesota exposure.
- Kyle Pitts – arguably the highest upside at the position going up against a horrid Jacksonville defense that grades 30th in DVOA against the tight-ends. Perfect little mini-stack to my Laviska Shenault lineups or Trevor Lawrence builds.
- Rob Gronkowski – Super popular, but way underpriced. Great way to get cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.
- Evan Engram – Literally everyone is injured for New York’s pass catchers. Easy run-back to Miles Sanders builds or Philly passing game lineups.
- Jack Doyle – one of my favorite “gross” plays on the slate. Michael Pittman is going to be heavy, heavy chalk and for good reason. A great way to get different is to pivot down to Jack Doyle or add Jack Doyle in with Michael Pittman for a TB/IND game-stack.
Honorable Mention: Dan Arnold, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
