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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 11 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 11 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This is honestly gong to be a very condensed week for me with most of my interest in those two afternoon shootouts. Now, let’s get into it.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
DAL/KC
CIN/LV
HOU/TEN (pending weather)
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)
If you read the Cash Game Checkdown, you are aware of my love for this Bengals offense after the bye-week. The Raiders’ secondary is full of second-string talent and with extra days of preparation, I expect both of these offenses to go wild and produce a significant amount of fantasy points and HOPEFULLY, keep up the pace with Dallas and Kansas City. Burrow is my favorite quarterback play on this slate.
Key Pairing(s): Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, C.J. Uzomah
Key Run-back(s): Darren Waller, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, Zay Jones
Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)
There’s not a whole lot on this slate that I like outside of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. Having said that, Ryan Tannehill grades out as an excellent 1-3% owned NFL DFS GPP quarterback due to the red-zone rushing upside and the condensed target-share that is easy to stack. I don’t love the play, but will have a bit of Tannehill this weekend if the rain holds off. Be sure to check the weather before moving forward with Tannehill.
Key Pairing(s): A.J. Brown, D’Onta Foreman
Key Run-back(s): Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins
Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)
With all of the ownership going down to the value running backs, that leaves Ezekiel Elliott alone on an island with a 5% ownership projection. There is simply way too much touchdown equity in Zeke’s corner this weekend and he will be a core play for me in all formats. The late news of Tyron Smith being out, it gets me a bit less excited, but still in on Elliott.
Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD)
Way too cheap on FanDuel but still a very interesting play on DraftKings. FanDuel clearly messed this pricing up because the AETY Model shows that his proper price-tag should be right around $7.5K on DraftKings and in the mid-low $8K range on FanDuel. Similar to Elliott, Joe Mixon has the highest touchdown equity in one of my favorite games to stack.
D’Onta Foreman ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)
While everyone flocks to Jeff Wilson and Mark Ingram for their value running backs, D’Onta Foreman is quietly in a great spot with Jeremy McNichols out with a concussion. The sportsbooks seem to agree as they have him close to even money to score a touchdown and a rushing prop of over 55 yards. It’s not sexy, but on DraftKings specifically, that price-tag allows you to do a lot and more importantly, in a different way than those eating all of the chalk value.
Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Antonio Gibson
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
To no surprise, I’m incredibly heavy on the main pass-catchers for the top two games on my list to start the article. This week, I’m just going to list off my receiver player pool in order of my GPP exposure. Tune into the livestream tomorrow morning at 11AM EST for further updates.
- Tyreek Hill
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins
- Ja’Maar Chase
- Michael Gallup
- Bryan Edwards (nice 1-2% owned piece of that game)
- Adam Thielen (easy run-back to the A.J. Dillon chalk)
- A.J. Brown
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- DK Metcalf (no one is playing a Seattle stack this week)
- Deebo Samuel (best matchup on the slate, just hope JAX can keep it close)
- Zay Jones (min price 0% owned punt and will see a lot of Eli Apple. Don’t expect much volume but a big play is extremely possible to smash the $3K price-tag)
NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends
Similar to the above, I’m going to very concentrated at the tight-end position with the likes of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Kelce’s ownership sitting around 10% is comical and my main angle of attack is to be incredibly overweight with him or Waller, but if not, I’m very interested in the below…
George Kittle ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)
Picking on the Jaguars pass defense is usually a profitable move and the fact that Kittle is likely sub-5% owned is an excellent pivot if you’re not on the Kelce or Waller train. The Jaguars grade 26th in DVOA against the tight-end and 31st overall against the pass in general, yikes! A George Kittle drag-route touchdown will be incoming.
Dalton Schultz ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)
As much as Amari Cooper helps out Michael Gallup, the AETY Model expects a significant boost up for Dalton Schultz on the inside of this Kansas City defense. As good of a player people think Tyrann Mathieu is, he really struggles in coverage and will see a fair share of the talented pass-catching, Dalton Schultz. Again, this game is loaded with fantasy appeal and chalk everywhere, but Schultz is going to be sub-5% in ownership and primed up for a higher-output game like he was used to earlier this season.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, John Bates
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
