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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)
Don’t care what the ownership here is at all. This is a 14-game slate where a large portion of the field is going to try to reinvent the wheel to find some sneaky quarterback no one is going to play in hopes the contrarian build puts them on top of the leaderboards. Let them donate.
What else do we need to see from Patrick Mahomes? He has the highest upside and the highest floor of anyone on the slate. There are plenty of other plays in this article and on the Win Daily site to help you get different elsewhere. We know Stefanski is going to game-plan to keep Mahomes off the field and use that uber-efficient run offense, but that doesn’t scare me one bit as the Chiefs are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL despite any game-tempo concerns we can hypothesize.
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
If you’re in discord and an avid Win Daily member, you already are well aware of my love for Russ in 2021 and right off the bat this weekend in Indianapolis. New offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, comes from the Sean McVay tree of up-tempo, no-huddle offense that should amplify all of Russell’s strengths as a signal caller. At 3-5% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings NFL DFS GPP contests, it’s giddy up, Russ!
Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)
This is more of a dart-throw based on lack of ownership and immediate leverage off of Dalvin Cook chalk. In 2020, Kirk Cousins absolutely carved up the bottom half of the NFL’s passing defenses (in terms of DVOA), he averaged over 300-yards passing and 2.75 touchdowns, throwing for three scores in all but one matchup.
Yes, the Bengals secondary should be relatively improved from their 2020 unit (27th in pass defense DVOA), but if the red-zone variance goes against Dalvin and towards the Minnesota passing attack, this stack lead by Cousins will be a GPP winner.
Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Matt Ryan
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD)
In lineups I’m not prioritizing Patrick Mahomes, I’m going to give a very strong look to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. When looking at the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool from Win Daily Sports, it’s no surprise the Chiefs are right there in the top-four for overall touchdown equity.
We briefly touched on red-zone variance when discussing Kirk Cousins, now let’s do the same with the Kansas City Chiefs. This offense is projected to go absolutely nuts (again, to no surprise) yet CEH is projected to be 4-8% in overall ownership. The Chiefs will not give up on this kid after a rough start to his red-zone rushing career as a rookie and I fully expect they use the hell out of him in the short-passing game against these beatable Cleveland linebackers… and to also avoid a nasty pass rush from Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett.
Simply put, I WANT exposure to this Kansas City offense in some form in most (if not all) of my NFL DFS GPP builds this weekend. What better way than to utilize an under-owned three-down running back on a team that’s going to score a lot?
Nick Chubb ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)
When building Patrick Mahomes lineups this week, I want to find a way to get a little different when I stack him with BOTH Tyreek and Travis Kelce and I believe the best way to do that is by using a 2-5% owned, Nick Chubb (expensive to do and that’s a contrarian way of going to do it when there’s this much value on the slate).
I don’t need to preach much more about my love for this outside-zone running scheme Stefanski brought over from the Shanahan/Kubiak tree and how Stefanski’s game-plan is likely going to be to give his running backs 40 touches in this matchup. The above alone sets up for an excellent Nick Chubb gamescript as long as they can keep it relatively close early-on.
Outside of Chris Jones, this Kansas City defensive line is horrid (sorry, Frank Clark) and graded 31st in run defense DVOA in 2020. As long as the 90+ degree heat doesn’t get to Chubb (I mean, the dude played college football in the southeast, 90 degrees should feel like a homecoming), Chubb is going to be in a prime spot for 115+ all-purpose yards and significant touchdown equity in one of the most popular game-stacks on this slate (at incredibly low ownership).
Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD)
I am all the way on on Miles Sanders this year, Mainly, for his fourth round ADP, but also from a NFL DFS perspective. I trust Nick Sirianni and the fact he didn’t really keep much competition for carries on the 53-man roster. This game has big time shoot-out ability and the AETY Model grades Miles Sanders 5th in overall running back touchdown equity. This matchup is a significant advantage for the Philly offensive line and if Sanders remains on the field for a majority of third downs, this can be an absolute coming out party for Sanders at 4-8% ownership.
Jonathan Taylor ($8,000 DK / $7,900 FD)
Absolute GPP lock on FanDuel at that price-tag with what should be a healthy offensive line in Indianapolis. With my deep, deep love for Russell Wilson, I need to run it back with an Indianapolis Colt or two.
Why the hell are people not interested in Jonathan Taylor? Despite a tougher matchup against a stout Seattle run-defense, we saw how matchup proof Taylor can be when he’s given the keys to a full workload. At 2-5% ownership for an elite back that will see 20+ touches, I am in.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Damien Harris
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
Read the cash game checkdown for more analysis on my love for DK Metcalf. The AETY Model is incredibly high on Metcalf in this matchup and grades him out as the highest receiving touchdown equity outside of Davante Adams. This dude is going to go wild on Sunday and prove he is much more than a “go-route” NFL wide receiver. You just cannot cover this dude!
Adam Thielen ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) & Justin Jefferson ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
Adam Thielen is an absolute red-zone superstar ranking second overall for all 2020 wide receivers in red-zone target share (just behind Davante Adams). I also love Justin Jefferson in this spot, but the AETY Model projects Thielen for a higher ceiling in NFL DFS GPP builds… and we trust the AETY Model. Again, significant leverage against the Dalvin Cook chalk if one (or likely both) of these Vikings’ wideouts have a field day.
Julio Jones ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD)
How the hell is a HEALTHY Julio Jones going to be 2-5% owned at these price tags in the game with the highest total on the slate? Don’t overthink this, Julio Jones is still one of the best wide receivers in football and Arizona’s secondary is trash.
Robby Anderson ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)
Plain and simple, Brian Tulloch’s theory on revenge narratives. He got me into this industry years ago, so I owe him this one. Darnold and Anderson will connect on a deep ball touchdown against a brutal, young, limited-in-talent Jets’ secondary. It’s “revenge szn” (man, I absolutely hate that term) for Sam Darold and Robby Anderson. There’s a lot more actual route detail I can break down for you here but this is already a long article, just trust me. #Analysis
Terrance Marshall ($3,000 DK / $4,900 FD)
I don’t love Marshall and Robby together unless you’re full on stacking Carolina (even then I’d recommend using CMC with one of the receivers), but I cannot ignore the fact that all of the $3K ownership has now shifted to Rondale Moore and Elijah Moore. I’m sorry, but the best play at this price is Terrance Marshall in the slot here for Carolina. He offers the world of salary relief in NFL DFS GPP builds for you to jam in your Dalvin Cooks and McCaffrey’s of the world and is projected for damn-near 4x value via the AETY Model.
Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Chase Claypool, Jalen Reagor, Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell
Tight Ends
Honestly, I just love Travis Kelce and George Kittle too much and the price-tag on Kyle Pitts (despite us actually knowing his role and relatively low Vegas player props…) makes it tough for me to go anywhere else at the tight end position.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, Dan Arnold
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
