Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 9

Welcome back for the Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a GROSS 10-game slate with some disgusting totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 9:
– Baltimore Ravens (25)
– Philadelphia Eagles (25)
– New Orleans Saints (24.75)
– Cleveland Browns (23.5)
– Indianapolis Colts (23)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. It’s obvious the two safest plays at the QB position this week are Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it. Both are in play for cash game and GPP tournaments.

• Dak Prescott ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD) – More interested again on DraftKings, but Dak Prescott is one of the higher values in the AETY Model against a pass-funnel defense in Philadelphia. For a weak slate, this is the game most likely to provide back-and-forth fantasy fireworks.
  
  Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson
  Bring-Back Options: A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, D’Andre Swift, DeVonta Smith
  
• Derek Carr ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – On DraftKings, Carr is a fantastic value for both Cash Game Lineups and GPP builds. As of now, Carr is likely to get the QB spot for my cash game lineup, but with how popular Alvin Kamara is, Carr and this passing attack (against another pass-funnel defense in Chicago) offers us nice leverage in GPPs.
  
  Stack Options: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed
  Bring-Back Options: D.J. Moore (or no one, lol)
  
• Jordan Love ($5,500 DK ONLY) – GPP punt-play only, but believe it or not, Jordan Love is one of the AETY Model’s top values. As terrible as he looks playing Quarterback, he does put up fantasy points and has three outings of over 3.5x value. The Rams’ defense is more of a pass-funnel and they simply do not have quality personnel in the secondary to make plays (you could argue the Packers’ do not have quality personnel in the passing game, lol). This is the exact same matchup we attacked last week with our love for Dak Prescott.
  
  Stack Options: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave
  Bring-Back Options: Likely no one if Matt Stafford is OUT
  
• DeShaun Watson ($5,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – GPP only, but DeShaun Watson is cheaper than Jordan Love, Sam Howell, and Daniel Jones… despite the injury and potential attitude issues, the Browns are in a playoff hunt and take on a putrid Cardinals’ defense. It sounds like Watson is good to go and would it really surprise you if Watson balled out against a weak opponent? He’s going to be in that 1-3% ownership range with one of the higher probabilities of slate-breaking value if you choose to pay down at quarterback.
  
  Stack Options: Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore
  Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Trey McBride

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Saquon Barkley ($7,900 DK / $8,600 FD) – One of my favorite GPP plays as the whole field will try to get the extra money for Alvin Kamara. The Raiders’ defense is terrible and grades 3rd-to-last in run defense DVOA on this slate. With Daniel Jones back, look for this offense to be much more competent and utilize Barkley in every way that they can. It’s very likely we see Saquon under 10% in ownership.
  
• Josh Jacobs ($6,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – Extremely affordable on both outlets against a defense that grades 4th-to-last in run defense DVOA. The Raiders’ certainly struggle to move the ball in general, but at home with a rookie quarterback, Josh Jacobs should have a clear path to 20+ touches.
  
• Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – Would just go down to Jacobs or Bijan on FanDuel, but this is a fantastic DraftKings’ salary against the worst run defense in the NFL. It’ll be interesting to see how much Zack Moss we continue to see this week, but Jonathan Taylor is a DraftKings’ NFL DFS cash game staple.
  
• Bijan Robinson ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – For the love of God, Arthur Smith, please feature Bijan Robinson. It’s not the best of matchups, but this offense has to be on the rise with Desmond Ridder going to the bench. At the price, it’s hard to pass up the talent and HOPEFUL usage of Bijan Robinson.
  
• Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – Great price. Great matchup. Great expected usage bump with all of the injuries on this New England offense. Washington just traded away their best run stopper and pass-rushers.
  
• Chuba Hubbard ($5,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – The punt-value at the running back position on DraftKings specifically. Personally, I have no interest in GPP contests but I’ll give Chubba and his slate-leading ownership a serious look in cash game formats.
  
• Devin Singletary ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD) – The new chalk punt on the slate. Take it in cash.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara (crazy-high ownership… consider in cash), D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• AJ Brown ($8,600 DK / $9,000 FD) – He does it every week. Tough matchup, but is AJ Brown the best wide receiver in fantasy AND real life football?
  
• CeeDee Lamb ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD) – It’s going to be tough to prioritize both AJ Brown and CeeDee Lamb, but I will certainly try my best to do so. CeeDee Lamb is in a fantastic matchup against a banged up, pass-funnel defense in what should be one of the only shootouts on the slate.
  
• DK Metcalf ($6,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – Super cheap on FanDuel and going to be sub 5% owned while playing in the second highest totaled game on the board. It’s not a fantastic matchup but on the other hand, it’s not easy to cover DK Metcalf. If you’re on this game as a sneaky shootout (assuming most of the ownership goes towards DAL @ PHI), Metcalf should be a priority play in GPP builds.
  
• Chris Olave ($6,300 DK / $6,900 FD) – Olave is due for a massive output one of these weeks and what better spot to do so than hosting the Bears’ secondary? Michael Thomas ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD) is again a nice value target on the outside vs the Bears’ zone defense. Having said that, I’d still rather use Olave for the play-making upside when he is on the outside.
  
• Amari Cooper ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – Arguably my favorite GPP play on the board. A cheap, WR1 in a plus-matchup is something I target on a weekly basis. If you have the stones to invest in a banged-up DeShaun Watson this week, give Amari Cooper serious consideration in a stack or as a low-owned one-off. The bookmakers seem to respect this Cleveland offense a lot this week as they hold the 4th highest implied team total on the slate.
  
• Zay Flowers ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dumb price again. Cheap, high-floor exposure to a great passing game environment.
  
• Demario Douglas ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – DraftKings cash-game staple with no Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker. This guy is legit as you know I’ve been talking about him for two months… it’s time. My only concern here is a very limited ceiling as he’ll likely be running more intermediate and underneath routes in the slot. At 20% ownership, it’ll likely be a fade for me in GPP contests.
  
• Jonathan Mingo ($3,400 DK / $5,100 FD) – On the 1st and Stix Podcast, I talked a lot about Mingo and the coverage advantage against a Juju Brents-less Colts’ secondary, who will run a ton of Cover-3 zone. Mingo gets a significant boost in expected targets per routes ran against Cover-3 and we will continue to attack the outside of this Colts’ secondary. I’d much rather roll the dice on a breakout game coming for a 5% or less owned Mingo than pay $600 more for Douglas chalk.

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Lockett, Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Romeo Doubs, Tank Dell, Elijah Moore, Van Jefferson

Tight-Ends

• Mark Andrews ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – Only high-end tight-end on the slate now that Kirk Cousins is OUT. If everyone is going to pay-down at tight-end, Andrews makes a LOT of sense in all formats.
  
• Dallas Goedert ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) & Jake Ferguson ($4,000 DK / $5,100 FD) – If you’re looking for the cheap, red-zone exposure to the slate’s shootout, here you go.
  
• Kyle Pitts ($4,100 DK / $5,200 FD) – This dude is a receiver and will be the focal point of the Falcons’ passing attack that will be without Drake London. As EVERYONE goes to play a cheap Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts is my favorite leverage play on the board. I’ll prioritize him in both cash and NFL DFS GPP lineups. Let’s go, Kyle Pitts!

Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz, David Njoku, Logan Thomas, Luke Musgrave

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Devin Singletary
• AJ Brown
• Demario Douglas
• Kyle Pitts
• Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• DeShaun Watson
• Amari Cooper
• Kyle Pitts
• Jonathan Mingo

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.