Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 7

Welcome back to the Week 7 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 10-game slate with some disgustingly low totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. This week… I’ll break that rule.

• Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD) – In all honesty, this is a gross slate with a wide variety of pay-up chalk, and value chalk. At the quarterback position, the AETY Model strongly feels the best way to move forward is to simply play the best player at the position one one of the best offenses on the slate who is projected for the most pass attempts and passing yards on the slate (also the only respectably high game total). If Patrick Mahomes comes in under 10% in ownership (currently projected for that 5-10% range), that will be a crime.
  
  I will not be reinventing the wheel at the most important position in DFS this week.
  
  Stack Options: Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Kadarius Toney
  Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett
  
• Matthew Stafford ($6,500 DK / $6,700 FD) – Quite affordable on FanDuel but certainly in play on DraftKings. If you’re looking to pay down at quarterback, it’s really only Stafford or Geno Smith in my opinion (maybe Watson in a GPP). Stafford has the second highest implied probability in the AETY Model to lead this slate in pass attempts (behind Mahomes) and should lean on his healthy receiving core with the massive question mark at the running back position this week. The Steelers secondary is not what it used to be.
  
  Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
  Bring-Back Options: George Pickens, Diontae Johnson
  
• Geno Smith ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – On FanDuel, you probably just take the $300 savings and go to Stafford (if you’re paying down), but on DraftKings, Geno Smith is likely to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate. I’ll likely be a hard pass in NFL DFS GPP tournaments, but will give Geno a serious look in cash games. As mentioned last week, this Arizona Cardinal defense has fallen flat down to earth and bleeds production to any facet of the opposing offense.
  
  Stack Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker
  Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson (FanDuel), Jordan Love, DeShaun Watson (GPP only)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Austin Ekeler ($8,600 DK / $8,200 FD) – In GPP’s, I’ll likely be prioritizing a sub-10% owned, Austin Ekeler. It’s not a sexy matchup as the Chiefs have been incredibly stingy to opposing running backs this season, but Ekeler is not your standard running back. When looking at his actual route tree and projections from the AETY Model, Austin Ekeler is damn-near a wide receiver who happens to get 10-15 carries and goal-line work. At this price, there is a lot that can go against Ekeler’s chances at having a ceiling game, but on the other side of the Chargers’ offense is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. On a slate where 80% of the games have totals around 40-points or below, I will sleep just fine knowing I attacked the fastest pace game (by a wide margin) with the best offenses on the slate.
  
• Josh Jacobs ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – It was very tough for me to include Josh Jacobs in this Week’s rundown, but it looks like he’ll be challenging Kenneth Walker for the highest owned running back on the slate. In GPP’s, I’d much rather PAY LESS for Bijan Robinson (that sounds weird to see Bijan cheaper than Jacobs). On the bright side, Jacobs is an absolute workhorse and very active in the passing game which will bode well as the Bears’ rank dead last in DVOA against opposing route running backs. I’ll only consider him in cash due to the ownership and my preference to Walker or Bijan in this price range for tournaments.
  
• Kenneth Walker ($7,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Pricey as hell on FanDuel, but it looks like KW3 is going to be the only game in town out of Seattle’s backfield with rookie Zach Charbonnet doubtful to suit up. I always try to find a way to fade a 40% owned running back, but it’ll be incredibly difficult to do that this weekend. Walker is averaging over 18 DraftKings’ points-per-game as-is, and now gets one of the best matchups on the slate against the Cardinals and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). Surprisingly, the Seahawks also grade inside the top-10 in run blocking. It’s tough to find a reason to not play Walker everywhere.
  
• Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – Unreal price on FanDuel, but certainly in play for DraftKings with the full-point PPR. I’m currently seeing ownership projections in the 25-35% range on BOTH NFL DFS outlets… we might as well ride the wave with Gibbs in our cash game lineups. Craig Reynolds is banged up, so we should get a nice day of work for the rookie… I don’t love that Dan Campbell said that, lol. There is just something about coach speak that rubs me the wrong way. Having said that, the weather in Baltimore will likely lead to more of an emphasis on the shorter passing routes where Gibbs thrives. This is still a run-first offense with or without Montgomery.
  
• Isiah Pachecho ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’ll keep writing up Pacheco as long as his price continues to remain in that mid-tier (on DraftKings). FanDuel has noticed the uptick in usage and rightfully raised his price. Pachecho is starting to become the clear running back in Kansas City which is exactly what Andy Reid used to do with his RB depth chart. McKinnon will still be involved (especially with the red-zone route running), but Pacheco is a staple for 15+ touches on the best offense on this slate.
  
• Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) – I prefer Stevenson on DraftKings of course, but he’s in play for GPP lineups on both outlets. Stevenson is going to be one of those mid-tier backs that gets completely ignored by the field as everyone prefers Brian Robinson Jr., Jerome Ford, or pay-up to Pachecho. We know the Patriots are going to try to slow this pace down as much as possible and run the living hell out of the football. We still have to watch Ezekiel Elliott get work, but Stevenson is the preferred option in this backfield. On the PPR side of things, Stevenson averaged five and a half receptions per game against this Bills’ defense in 2022. He’s going to be a cheap source of 15+ touches with receiving upside.
  
• Zach Evans ($4,000 DK / $4,800 FD) – If you need the free-square running back, no need to overthink this one. He likely won’t get the workload Hubbard did last week, but he’s likely the lead running back for an offense with a top-5 implied team total this week.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley (GPP Only), Bijan Robinson, Aaron Jones, James Cook, Brian Robinson Jr., Javonte Williams (sorry @Ghost), Jerome Ford

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• Cooper Kupp ($9,500 DK / $9,700 FD) – Everyone’s #1 wideout for the week is going to be Cooper Kupp. I have nothing negative to say about him and will lock him in to my cash game lineups. He’s always in play in any format for that matter.
  
• Davante Adams ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – I’m AGAIN going to be extremely interested in Davante Adams. Coming off of two down games, Davante Adams gets one of the best matchups on the slate against a Bears’ defense that grades 30th in pass defense DVOA. There is not a corner or a combination of corners that can hang with Adams for Chicago. Squeaky wheel gets the grease!
  
• DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD) – Too cheap for someone with the ceiling of Metcalf against the Cardinals’ secondary. I worry about the back-and-forth potential in this game, but if there’s anyone who can go for 150 yards and two scores before half, it’s DK Metcalf.
  
• DJ Moore ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – It’s gross and we all know it, but I’ll always feature the lead wide receiver against the Raiders…. the same reason we loved Bourne on the podcast and discord last week. Bagent is the definition of an unproven rookie, but he will lean on his “X” wideout from the jump. A true, 2-5% owned WR1 in a great matchup.
  
• Amari Cooper ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – Our classic spot for the outside receivers against the Colts. I certainly prefer Cooper if Watson does in fact return this week, but like Moore, no one will play this guy if a backup quarterback gets the start. He’s a great GPP play this week.
  
• Terry McLaurin ($5,400 DK / $7,200 FD) – Dirt cheap price on DraftKings and likely half the ownership of Marquise Brown. In GPP contests, I love the idea of Terry McLaurin. Some of the easiest decisions in DFS is playing value-priced, WR1s against bad pass defenses (the Giants are 26th in pass defense DVOA).
  
• Marquise Brown ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – Classic spot every single week, lol. Which realistically should get us off of considering Marquise Brown… There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! For the price on DraftKings, he’s in play in all formats again for me this week in what should be another excellent gamescript for his path to 3-4x value in fantasy. The Seahawks almost exclusively run Cover-3 zone, and that is where Marquise Brown gets his volume.
  
• Josh Palmer ($4,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – The highest owned wide receiver on the slate. On FanDuel, I’ll probably pass on that price-tag, but will lock him into our cash game lineup on DraftKings. You can play him tournaments (I probably will eat that chalk), but I love the idea of pivoting to a 2% owned, Romeo Doubs (the AETY Model’s #2 value at receiver) if you can afford it.
  
• Rashee Rice ($4,700 DK / $5,600 FD) – Without Justin Watson, something has to give for a full-on Rashee Rice breakout. He’s literally first on this slate in targets per routes ran and should be able to abuse this Chargers’ secondary. The Chargers will show a good bit of Cover-2 (both man and zone) and then Cover-1 Man. Both of those coverages should lead to a significant advantage to both Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Let’s have a day, Rashee!

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, Romeo Doubs, Kadarius Toney

Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) –It’s Travis Kelce. He’s by far and away the top tight-end on the slate, but he’s priced like a top-tier wide receiver/running-back.
  
• Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD) – A nice discount for an upper echelon tight-end on DraftKings. The Lions’ play nothing but zone defense and that is advantage to Mark Andrews. While the whole field goes to play Zay Flowers, I’m much more interested in pivoting to a 5% owned Mark Andrews.
  
• Kyle Pitts ($4,000 DK / $5,600 FD) – Great price for a mid-tier wide receiver who gets the tight-end tag. I’m always annoyed with Jonnu Smith’s usgage, but these guys are both a focal point in the Falcons’ passing attack. I started looking at Pitts with the lens that he is just a cheap wide receiver with the world of upside. That mindset makes him MUCH easier to stomach when playing him on a weekly basis. Tampa plays a ton of Cover-3 and that’s where Pitts feasts.
  
• Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DK Only) – The punt-chalk tight-end everyone is going to play this week. I’m fine with it for Packers’ stacks or cash game lineups. He’s getting a lot of work and should find plenty of holes in Denver’s Cover-3 and Cover-2 defenses.
  
• Michael Mayer ($2,700 DK / $4,900 FD) – If you really need to go dumpster diving, Michael Mayer has taken the reigns as the TE1 in Las Vegas. His route participation has been on the steady incline over the past three weeks and should continue to fizzle out Austin Hooper. This game is gross, but Mayer has some serious touchdown upside against the Bears’ red-zone defense.
  
• Trey McBride ($2,600 DK / $4,600 FD) – Even more gross than Michael Mayer, but the Cardinals are slowly unleashing their most talented pass-catcher on the team in Trey McBride. McBride’s sole job is to go out and run routes as the Cardinals are chasing points on a weekly basis. My concern with Mayer is that Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Jakobi Meyers are all well ahead of him in the pecking order. Pair that with a likely negative gamescript for Mayer being “needed” against Chicago and it seems like McBride (if you’re completely punting tight-end) is a no-brainer in large field GPP contests only.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Marquise Brown
• Isiah Pacecho
• Josh Palmer
• Cooper Kupp
• Kenneth Walker

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Patrick Mahomes
• Austin Ekeler
• Rashee Rice
• Trey McBride

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.