StixPicks 
Welcome back for the Week 16 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a loaded, 13-game slate with a ton of explosive games. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown (this week was another Podcast BYE week. Hoping to be back after the Holiday travel season).
As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!
Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 17 (teams we want to try to get exposure to):
– San Francisco 49ers (31)
– Philadelphia Eagles (30)
– Buffalo Bills (27)
– Kansas City Chiefs (25.5)
– Baltimore Ravens (25)
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
This is a loaded week in terms of the Quarterback player-pool. I am not going to be a fan of paying down at the position this week. I’ll format this article a little bit different as it is such a large slate with tons of studs/values.
The Studs:
- Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD) – Second highest team total on the board against the second worst defense in the NFL. You don’t need me to explain the high floor / high ceiling combination that Hurts possesses in Week 17. He’s a full go for all NFL DFS formats.
- Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD) – Great matchup on paper against a weak New England defense, but we have severe blowout concerns here in addition to the expected pace of this game. On the bright-side, not many will pay-up for Josh Allen which makes in viable in GPP contests.
- Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – Fantastic price on FanDuel for exposure to one of the highest total games on the slate. The injury to Jaylen Waddle hurts the back-and-forth nature of this game ever-so-slightly, but this is still one of the best games for fantasy fireworks.
- Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 DK / $8,000 FD) – A sub-5% owned Mahomes in a damn-near must-win game is always intriguing. The Bengals have given up over 265 passing yards per game over their last three and will have their hands full against a motivated Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead on Sunday. He’s a fine play in GPP tournaments.
Mid-Tier:
- C.J. Stroud ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD) – The Texans will certainly have a warm welcome back to the NFL Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud. At this price, I’d prefer just finding the extra cash for a lower-owned Mahomes, but I’ll never fault you for playing Stroud at home against a pass-funnel defense.
- Brock Purdy ($7,000 DK / $8,500 FD) – The best matchup on the slate against a horrible Washington defense that is without two of their “top-corners”. I can’t imagine a scenario where Washington stays in this game and would limit my exposure to Purdy in cash games. He’s likely going to lead the DraftKings NFL DFS slate in ownership.
Value:
- Kyler Murray ($6,300 DK / $7,800 FD) – A pass-funnel defense in Philadelphia in what likely will be a very negative gamescript for the Arizona Cardinals. The pass-catchers are lacking outside of Trey McBride, but you play Kyler Murray for what he can do with his legs. GPP and cash viable at this price (DraftKings).
Honorable Mention: I don’t really want to consider playing a pay-down quarterback. Tyrod Taylor, Will Levis, and Jarrett Stidham will somehow draw ownership and I’m out on that.
NFL DFS Running Backs
Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Kyren Williams. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.
- Christian McCaffrey ($9,600 DK / $11,000 FD) – CMC about broke the AETY Model this week, lol. If you can afford him, he’s the best cash play on the slate. I worry about the blowout potential here, but I also have faith than Shanahan is going to do everything he can to get McCaffrey a MVP award this season.
- Kyren Williams ($8,300 DK / $9,400 FD) – Volume and matchup combination is second to only the man above him in this article.
- Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200 DK / $8,600 FD) – The matchup against the Panthers for opposing running backs is something we touch on every single week. With C.J. Beathard getting the starting nod on Sunday, that will take all ownership away from Etienne. This offense will run through him with the occasional Engram and Ridley in the passing game when they need it. Etienne is in play for GPP lineups only.
- D’Andre Swift ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – Number one mismatch in the AETY Model for offensive line vs defensive line grades. If you can stomach the green-zone volatility, Swift is an excellent value in all formats in Week 17. We always look to play top-tier rushers as a double-digit home favorite… especially when no one wants to play them.
- Javonte Williams ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – The second highest mismatch on the AETY Model. I truly believe Javonte has lost a step (if not two) since the surgery, but he’s still going to bring us that 15+ touch volume we’re looking for.
- Kansas City Chiefs – Will monitor this situation as we learn more about Pacheco’s injury status and Edwards-Helaire’s health.
- Zamir White ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD) – Free-square again this week with Josh Jacobs doubtful to play.
Honorable Mention: Rachaad White, Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott (cash-viable at the ownership), Devin Singletary, Najee Harris, Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This will be a list this week with more details on each matchup in Discord.
- AJ Brown ($8,600 DK / $8,500 FD) – All formats.
- Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – GPP only as this Raiders’ defense has really stepped up of late, but the volume and low-ownership combination in a must-win game should offer us a lot of leverage when the field pays down for values at the position.
- Nico Collins ($7,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – Cash game staple at the ownership we are seeing this week. I’m personally going to fade this whole situation with the slow pace Tennessee is likely going to play at. Noah Brown ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) is also in a nice spot, but I’d only touch that price on DraftKings.
- Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – The worst secondary in the NFL who happens to play a ton of man coverage. We play Aiyuk against man coverage.
- Chris Olave ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – The same reason we’ve been playing WR1’s against the Bucs the past few weeks… Load up Olave in all formats if you can afford him. Carlton Davis will be out again this week which is another added boost.
- DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD) – This week’s Amari Cooper in terms of mid-tier WR1s with zero ownership. I’m in for GPPs.
- DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Great price and matchup for a Houston secondary that again will be without Steven Nelson. They’re slowly becoming one of the best secondaries to pick on. Cash and GPP Viable.
- Zay Flowers ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – Too cheap for this game environment.
- Demario Douglas ($4,300 DK / $6,100 FD) – Likely a cash-game staple at this price and ownership.
- Punt Values – Rondale Moore, Michael Wilson, Darius Slayton, Brandon Johnson, Mecole Hardman
Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin, Jerry Jeudy
Tight-Ends
- Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – I haven’t played Kelce in months and he certainly looks like his good days are behind him, but at sub-10% ownership in a matchup against the Bengals (31st in DVOA vs. Opposing Tight-Ends), I’m going to go back to the well here. I am in on the Chiefs this week and will be starting those stacks with Kelce.
- Trey McBride ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – Just keep playing him in these matchups and negative gamescripts. I do worry Trey is all the Cardinals’ have on the offensive side of things and they can scheme to slow him down, but the price is still worth it for the expected volume.
- Isaiah Likely ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD) – The Dolphins can be beat on the inside of their zone-coverage and have struggled against talented tight-ends all season long. Likely is at a great price will draw no ownership for your GPP tournaments.
- Chig Okonkwo ($3,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – Chiggy will be the chalk pay-down option this weekend. Truthfully, I have zero interest and will pay up at the position, but if you want to ride the train in cash, he’s your guy.
- Gerald Everett ($3,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – The only healthy, proven pass-catcher for the Chargers in the number one matchup for tight-ends. The ceiling is extremely limited, but the AETY Model and player-prop market seem to think he’s a great value.
- Durham Smythe ($2,900 DK / $4,800 FD) – Absolute punt-play in GPPs only. I had a very hard time realistically simulating his involvement with no Jaylen Waddle against the coverage scheme for Baltimore and AETY spit out some good games and other games where he doesn’t draw a target. Good luck if you need to punt tight-end!
Honorable Mention: Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz
The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)
- Jalen Hurts
- Zamir White
- Chig Okonkwo
- Nico Collins
- Chris Olave
NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Travis Kelce
- D’Andre Swift
- Zay Flowers
Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.
