Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 14

Welcome back for the Week 14 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown (this week was a Podcast BYE week).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

*This is an absolutely loaded slate and one that offers multiple ways to get crazy different in tournaments.

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 14:
– San Francisco 49ers (30)
– Kansas City Chiefs (25)
– Baltimore Ravens (24)
– Buffalo Bills (23.75)
– Los Angeles Chargers (23.5)
– Detroit Lions (23.25)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it.

• Josh Allen ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The most expensive quarterback on the slate but the highest upside by a mile. This is do-or-die time for the Buffalo Bills and the AETY Model expects a heroic performance out of Josh Allen on Sunday. He’s the best play at the position for all formats. With such a loaded slate and pay-down values at QB drawing a lot of ownership, Josh Allen is likely going to come in around 5%…
  
  Stack Options: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid
  Bring-Back Options: Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pachecho
  
• Justin Fields ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Great price for a dual-threat quarterback who has a rushing prop in the low 60s. The Lions’ defense is on tilt and Justin Fields is playing for his future. I don’t love this spot for him, but we cannot miss at the quarterback position this week and the rushing floor is enough to warrant a look in both cash and GPP NFL DFS lineups.
  
  Stack Options: DJ Moore
  Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta
  
• Joshua Dobbs ($5,900 DK Only) – In what very well could be a low-key shootout, Joshua Dobbs checks in as the number-one value on the AETY Model for the quarterback position this week. If you trust the Raiders to stay in this game, Dobbs is a cheap, dual-threat quarterback with a condensed target share that makes it easy to stack. GPP lineups only!
  
  Stack Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson
  Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
  
• Russell Wilson ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’m personally not a Russ guy this week but it looks like he’ll be closer to 10% and in the top-tier of ownership at the quarterback position in Week 14. This is an excellent matchup for the Broncos’ offense and both teams are playing for their (limited) playoff hopes. Russ continues to do damage with his legs and offer us a floor that is safe enough for cash games.
  
  Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
  Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen
  
• Jake Browning ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD) – If you’re looking to pay all the way down, Jake Browning has some game and is in a fantastic matchup against the Colts’ defense. The game total continues to rise throughout the week and a healthy core of weapons for the Bengals doesn’t hurt the case.
  
  Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon
  Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Zack Moss, Josh Downs

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert (love in GPP), Brock Purdy

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Somehow there is now ownership going towards Alvin Kamara this week in the number one matchup for running backs… If you can afford him, fire him all the way up against the Panthers’ 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). This is a home run spot if Taysom Hill is OUT.
  
• Isiah Pachecho ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Pachecho is going to draw a ton of ownership due to his recent success and being a part of the Chiefs’ offense in a high-total game. In cash, I’m 100% okay with you riding it. In GPP lineups, I’ll likely pass on this ownership with the return of Jerick McKinnon who is likely to eat away at that invaluable target share Pachecho has had out of the backfield lately.
  
• Bijan Robinson ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – Fantastic prices on both outlets for Bijan Robinson (projected 10-15% ownership) in another game where both teams are fighting for playoff hopes. Robinson is no longer splitting the workload evenly with Allgeier and gets a plus-matchup if Vita Vea misses this game for the Bucs. Bijan has an anticipated top-5 opportunity share this week (according to the AETY Model).
  
• Joe Mixon ($6,100 DK / $7,200 FD) – Mixon’s fantasy value comes solely from the passing-game work and red-zone equity now that Chase Brown is getting more snaps on a weekly basis. On DraftKings, the passing game work offers us an excellent floor for cash game lineups in what should be a surprisingly back-and-forth affair versus the Colts’ sieve of a defense.
  
• Zack Moss ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – AETY Model number-one value at running back who is still too cheap for the expected usage and plus-matchup against the Bengals 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Cash game lock and I’m fine if you eat the chalk in GPP tournaments if the salary relief helps you build a better lineup.
  
• Javonte Williams ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – If you’re looking for another cheap running back workload in a great matchup, Javonte Williams is your guy. I’m seeing ownership projections on Williams closer to 15% but I’ll take the under there. Javonte is best left for GPP lineups as a salary relief back or pivot off of Zack Moss chalk.
  
• Keaton Mitchell ($4,900 DK / $5,900 FD) – Rookie running backs after the BYE week… Let’s go Keaton! We know he’s extremely explosive and the sportsbooks finally flipped the rushing yard props for this Baltimore backfield in favor of Mitchell. Having said that, we likely will not see any goal-line work as that will go to Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson. If you roll the dice with Mitchell, you’re praying for the big play, which Mitchell has shown the ability to provide on a weekly basis.
  
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,200 DK / $5,500 FD) – Free-square type of play in cash games but I do not love this at all for GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• Ja’Maar Chase ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – I’ve seen enough from Browning to trust his ability to feed Ja’Maar Chase the football and Chase will be the lead dog for my wide receiver column this week as we continue to pick on this exterior coverage for the Indianapolis Colts. Chase is going to be in that 5-8% ownership range and provides us an extremely high floor/ceiling combination that we’re looking for in GPP tournaments.
  
• Davante Adams ($7,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – Extremely sexy price on FanDuel but also in-play on DraftKings. Like Chase, the backup quarterback situation will distract the field from the positive matchup the opposition brings to the table. If this game has any pace, Davante Adams could be the WR1 on this slate. NFL DFS GPP lineups only.
  
• Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – The ceiling is nowhere near the two above, but the floor is. Michael Pittman Jr. is having a monster season in terms of volume and is an excellent choice for a cash-game lineup. The only issue here is you’re likely starting your build with Zack Moss in cash games and we do not want to get a ton of exposure to the Colts’ offense in a cash game setting.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – GPP only, but a nice price for a home-run hitter on the highest implied team total this week. I’m fine if you want to continue to ride the hot-hand of Deebo Samuel, but the AETY Model thinks this is a statement game for Mr. Aiyuk on the outside.
  
• Gabe Davis ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD) – If you cannot afford Stefon Diggs, the AETY Model loves this low-ownership spot for Cover-2 killer, Gabe Davis. The Chiefs’ pass-defense plays a ton of Cover-2 (second highest rate behind Atlanta) and we all know the Gabe Davis breakout game in the playoffs a few years ago. GPP Only.
  
• Rashee Rice ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) – Rashee Rice is clearly Mahomes’ top-option in the passing game and continues to grow his snap share and target share on a weekly basis. The usage is too high for the price in one of the sexiest games on the slate. Rice is going to be popular and makes a ton of sense in cash if you’re not playing Pacheco. In tournaments, you can definitely use him as salary relief or as a part of a game-stack.
  
• Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) – 1-5% owned type of pivot play if all of the mid-tier ownership goes towards London/Moore/Smith-Njigba. I love this matchup on the inside against nickel-corner, Essang Bassey. If the Chargers’ offense can get back on track, this should push Russ and the Broncos into a pass-happy gamescript and a breakout game for Jerry Jeudy.
  
• Drake London ($4,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – On DraftKings specifically, this is an excellent spot to continue to attack with Jamel Dean likely out again this week. We put the hammer kid bet on Jonathan Mingo last week in this exact same matchup. London is too cheap and viable for all lineups this weekend.
  
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD) – Punt-play for a negative gamescript against the red-hot 49ers’ offense. The inside is where I prefer to attack the 49ers but it is not a spot I love by any means. This is purely a price play for the AETY Model’s top value at the wide receiver position.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Josh Downs, Jameson Williams

Tight-Ends

• TJ Hockenson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – I love this spot for Hockenson now that Justin Jefferson is going to suit-up. The whole field is looking to pay-down at tight-end and we can get a lot of leverage on them by simply paying up at the tight-end position. This is an excellent matchup for Hockenson and the great rapport with a QB who loves throwing to the tight-end.
  
• David Njoku ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD) – Too cheap for a receiving core that will be without Amari Cooper. If you aren’t paying up, but do not want to purely punt the position, Njoku is your guy in any format.
  
• Kyle Pitts ($3,700 DK / $5,300 FD) – I know it’s gross, but this is a great price for a big-bodied slot receiver in a plus-matchup. This is a game the Falcons need to win and they will not hold back the usage for Kyle Pitts. The issue here is Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder… but that is priced into the situation.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($3,500 DK / $5,200 FD) – Keep an eye on the weather here, but Likely is going to lead the charge in tight-end ownership and is a perfect free-square for your cash game lineups (on DraftKings). On FanDuel, I prefer Njoku for just $300 more.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, Gerald Everett, Michael Mayer

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jake Browning
• Zack Moss
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Drake London
• Rashee Rice

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Josh Allen
• Stefon Diggs
• Bijan Robinson
• Rashee Rice

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.