StixPicks 
Welcome back for the Week 13 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.
As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!
Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 13:
– Miami Dolphins (30)
– Detroit Lions (25.5)
– Houston Texans (25.5)
– San Francisco 49ers (25)
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it.
- Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Pricey, but the best fantasy quarterback on the slate in a high-total shootout in the 5-10% ownership tier.
Stack Options: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith
Bring-Back Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel - Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD) – Best matchup on the slate with an offense that appears to be damn-near 100% healthy. I do have concerns that Washington can’t stay in the game but this is a rather gross slate and when we’re competing with players like Jalen Hurts, we need to find someone with similar upside if we fade him. The AETY Model thinks Tua is a can’t miss plug-and-play this week. The condensed target share makes the stack-factor too easy.
Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Bring-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel - Russell Wilson ($5,700 / $7,400 FD) – What a time to be alive… Russ Wilson chalk week! You all know my love for playing a 1-3% owned Russ, but this week, the whole world wants to use the value (on DraftKings) with Russell Wilson in an up-tempo matchup against the Texans. On FanDuel, I’ll be a hard pass, but on DraftKings, it’s hard to ignore the matchup through the air and the added points we get from Wilson’s rushing ability.
Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims
Bring-Back Options: Nico Collins, Tank Dell
Honorable Mention: Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud
NFL DFS Running Backs
Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.
- Rachaad White ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – The number one matchup for opposing running backs that we see succeed (in the fantasy game) week after week. Carolina ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and Rachaad White grades 9th overall for the AETY Model’s Expected Opportunities per Game. I prefer him in cash game setups at the high ownership we’re going to see, but you can also use him in tournaments and get different elsewhere.
- Bijan Robinson ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD) – Another week we’ll see Bijan around the 5% ownership mark. Art Smith woke up and realized this guy needs 18+ touches a game and he’ll dominate. The Jets’ run defense has been bleeding production on the ground on a weekly basis over the past month.
- Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – Extremely good value here for the Patriots’ only weapon on the offensive side of the ball. The Chargers’ defense is banged up and comes into this matchup ranked 4th to last in run defense DVOA. Stevenson grades SECOND in the Expected Opportunities per Game for the AETY Model and has a higher probability to score a touchdown than the chalk, Rachaad White.
- Jaylen Warren ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) & Najee Harris ($5,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – Great matchup, great prices. It’s tough to choose which one to use (if any), but the prop market would say lean Warren, although I love the advanced metrics we’re getting out of Najee Harris and the likelihood he gets the goal-line work. GPP lineups only.
- Zack Moss ($4,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – Free square.
Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Alvin Kamara, Jerome Ford
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.
- Tyreek Hill ($9,600 DK / $10,000 FD)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD) – One of the best matchups in the AETY Model working on the inside against New Orleans’ Alontae Taylor. While everyone is going to jam in Tyreek, I don’t mind the idea of working a bit lower towards a 5-8% owned, St. Brown with a high-total game in New Orleans. *This doesn’t mean I’m telling you to fade Tyreek Hill in the best matchup all year.
- Jaylen Waddle ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – Excellent price for the forgotten weapon for the Miami Dolphins. If you can’t afford Tyreek Hill in your Tua stack’s, I have no issues with you rocking Jaylen Waddle. Like Tyreek Hill, Waddle should absolutely destroy the heavy man-coverage rate that Washington is likely to bring on Sunday.
- Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) & Deebo Samuel ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – The Eagles bleed production to opposing pass-catchers and do two things often… Blitz and play man-coverage. Aiyuk is an absolute beast against man-coverage and Deebo feasts against heavy blitz rates. Both of these dudes will be sub 8% owned and offer us a nice piece of that afternoon shootout.
- Courtland Sutton ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Too cheap for a shootout type of gamescript. Sutton and Wilson have had great chemistry all year long and Sutton supports a greater than 40% end-zone target share.
Diontae Johnson ($5,000 DK / $6,800 FD) & George Pickens ($4,800 DK / $6,600 FD) –A bit pricey on FanDuel, but if you’re not interested in flipping the coin on the Steelers’ running game, give these outside receivers a serious look against the Arizona Cardinals’ secondary. They rank second-to-last in pass defense DVOA and both Pickens and Johnson are a serious mismatch for the Cardinals’ personnel.
Out on this game due to weather. Fine with the running backs if needed.- Jonathan Mingo ($3,300 DK / $5,400 FD) – It’s gross, but Mingo is the #1 WR value in the AETY Model. In terms of the matchup, the Bucs’ have been getting crushed through the air by all opponents and will again be without LaVonte David, Jamel Dean, and Devin White. Also, both Tommy Tremble and Hayden Hurst are out for the Panthers. This dude has been getting a ton of targets on a regular basis and now will have the opportunity for even more with a depleted pass-catching core and a pass-funnel defense in Tampa Bay.
Honorable Mention: A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., Tank Dell, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Jerry Jeudy, Josh Downs
Tight-Ends
- George Kittle ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – A little pricey for the spotty production but Philadelphia grades dead-last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Although I prefer Deebo Samuel in this spot, Kittle is the clear-cut TE1 on this slate and makes for an excellent play across the board as everyone is punting down at the position.
- Juwan Johnson ($3,400 DK / $4,900 FD) – Great value for one of the only proven pass-catchers on this Saints’ Week 13 offense.
- Cade Otton ($3,200 DK / $5,100 FD) – It sounds like Chris Godwin is truly questionable so we’ll give a decent boost in expected production to Cade Otton if that ends up being the case. The Panthers have struggled against opposing tight-ends and although it’s never anything sexy, Otton doesn’t leave the field.
- Brevin Jordan ($2,500 DK / $4,300 FD) – Stone cold minimum on DraftKings in a great matchup against Denver. I wouldn’t expect much, but his player props are right there with guys like Otton and Gerald Everett.
Honorable Mention: Logan Thomas, Sam LaPorta, Pat Freiermuth
The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)
- Russel Wilson
- Zack Moss
- Tyreek Hill
- Rachaad White
- Brevin Jordan
NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:
- Russell Wilson
- Alvin Kamara
- Zack Moss
- Deebo Samuel
Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.
