Stix Picks for NFL Week 1

I hope everyone had an excellent off-season and kicked ass in their season long drafts! The 2023-2024 NFL DFS season is now upon us! If you’re new to the Win Daily Family, welcome aboard! If you’re a returning member, I want to personally thank you for your continued support!

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Quick note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, etc. On this slate, there is no Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, so for me, the highest floor/ceiling combo is Lamar Jackson. For Hurts, the Patriots will do their best to scheme away an opposing offense’s lethal weapon (Jalen Hurts). Pair that with a mediocre game total in the mid-40s, I’ll likely pass on Jalen Hurts in Week 1. If you have the salary to play him, I wouldn’t stop you from doing so.

• Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – If we’re looking to pay up, I’ll be starting at the top with Lamar Jackson in a revamped Baltimore offense under new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken. Monken will bring a much more balanced, spread offense (in terms of passing the football) than what we saw in years’ past from Greg Roman and also raise the tempo the Ravens play at offensively.
  
  I’ll talk a bit more about the expected game-flow below, but I would lean to Lamar Jackson being best for cash games as I find it hard to believe this game has any shootout potential whatsoever, but the floor for Lamar Jackson is second to no one.
  
  Stack Options: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers
  Bring-Back Options: Dalton Schultz, Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins
  
• Justin Herbert ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD) – Headlining the main slate game of the week for NFL DFS is Justin Herbert and the Chargers hosting the Miami Dolphins. This game is currently the only one on the board with an expected total over 50-points and will likely draw the most ownership on this Week 1 slate. Although Miami’s defense looks significantly better on paper in 2023 (under new Defensive Coordinator, Vic Fangio) star acquisition, Jalen Ramsey, will likely be out for a couple months and the rest of this secondary/pass rush shouldn’t alter new Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore from a well-balanced, up-tempo, high scoring affair.
  
  Despite a significant expected drop in pass attempts per game, the up-tempo style of play Moore will continue to use in Los Angeles should bode well for one of the best arms in football. Look for fireworks in this game with plenty of viable fantasy options. Herbert is an excellent choice (and likely the most preferred of all NFL DFS players in Week 1) for cash games and GPP tournaments.
  
  Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, Austin Ekeler
  Bring-Back Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
  
• Russell Wilson ($5,900 DK / $7,300 FD) – Welcome back to the write-ups, Mr. Wilson! It was a gross season for this Broncos’ offense as a whole last year, but the weeks we played Russell Wilson and company were surprisingly the best week of my 2022 NFL DFS season (yikes). Simply put, I still trust the talent and skill of Russell Wilson and until given a reason to believe otherwise, I’ll always trust Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi.
  
  The Broncos improved their offensive line with the signing of Mike McGlinchey and also get Garrett Bolles back from an injury plagued 2022 campaign, which is big news for this offense as Wilson was T1 in sacks, T3 in knockdowns, 5th in hurries. The Raiders’ defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. A year ago, this unit had a hard time pressuring opposing quarterbacks (Russ was 31st in the NFL in pressured completion percentage in 2022) and are still extremely weak in the secondary (31st in pass defense DVOA in 2022). At this price, we do not need a back-and-forth shootout for Wilson to hit 3-4x value. If for some reason we do get a shootout, Wilson could very well be the optimal QB1 on this NFL DFS slate and cash-viable, but a more appropriate option for GPP lineups.
  
  Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Greg Dulcich
  Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow (GPP Sex), Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. For Week 1 NFL DFS, there’s no doubt the running backs with the highest floors in a full-point PPR format are Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. For me personally, I like the builds I can get paying down at running back and paying up for these top tier wideouts we’ll touch on later in this article. If Ekeler or McCaffrey are your guys this week, by all means, fire them up!

• Nick Chubb ($8,200 DK / $8,600 FD) – Chubb is the clear RB1 on this slate for me. No more Kareem Hunt taking away crucial 2-minute drill snaps and passing-down work. This should be the Nick Chubb show on the Browns’ offense for quite some time.
  
• Alexander Mattison ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – I personally am not quite sure how I feel about Alexander Mattison (especially from a season-long perspective) but I’m not too worried about Kene Nwangwu or Ty Chandler taking meaningful snaps away from Mattison this early in the season. It’s tough to beat the value of Mattison when you pair the expected workload for a running back on a quality offense and the extremely affordable price-tags on both NFL DFS outlets.
  
• Dameon Pierce ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD) – I mentioned above my concerns with paying a premium for Lamar Jackson due to the expected game-flow for the Houston Texans and that should lead to a significant workload for Dameon Pierce. Under new Offensive Coordinator, Bobby Slowik, look for a lot more outside-zone running schemes and a much slower pace of play on offense. There’s just no way a defensive minded coach in DeMeco Ryans and a run-first mindset Offensive Coordinator want to get their rookie quarterback into a shootout with Lamar Jackson and a revamped Ravens’ offense.
  
  It’s very possible this game gets ugly early as the Ravens are the only double-digit favorite on this slate, but with such an affordable price-tag, Pierce is one of the few on this slate who are cheap and have a path to 20+ touches. Having said that, the matchup against Baltimore’s run defense is not a sexy one, but on the bright-side, Pierce is likely to work as the passing-down back in a negative gamescript.
  
• Rachaad White ($5,500 DK / $6,400 FD) – Despite the season-long drafters starting to fade Rachaad White, I believe he’s one of the top values at the running back position in a solid matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. It will be interesting to see what Brian Flores can do with this defensive personnel in Minnesota, but I’ll take the lower mid-tier price of White in this matchup all-day long. As you can see in this article, I’m targeting the players we know will have a premium workload in Week 1 and also grade as a strong value in the AETY Model. It’s very likely Rachaad White is a three-down back until Chase Edmonds can get back to 100% health and conditioned to handle more of a workload in this offense.
  
• AJ Dillon ($5,200 DK / $6,100 FD) *GPP ONLY* – AJ Dillon doesn’t check my box of a clear path to 15+ touches when I’m looking at running backs I want to roster, but I do believe in the talent and significant boost in red-zone equity for these Packers’ running backs now that Aaron Rodgers is out of town. The Bears’ defense should be much improved from last year but this is still the majority of the unit that graded 30th in run defense DVOA. I’ll roll the dice on a low-owned Dillon in hopes Matt LaFleur leans on his running backs early and often with an inexperienced Jordan Love under center.
  
  *Hint, you can roster both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in a GPP build if you want a valuable and extremely unique running back roster construction. Aaron Jones ($6,300 DK) is also someone I’m interested in for cash game lineups on DraftKings.
  
• Jamaal Williams ($5,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – Not really a running back matchup I usually look to get exposure to, but the chalk of all chalk this week is going to be Jamaal Williams as there is quite literally no one behind him. In cash, you should consider firing him up as one of the “free-square” roster spots based on current ownership. In larger-field GPP contests, I’ll be much more inclined to pivot to Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,100 DK / $7,800 FD) on a team with a higher implied team total and some potentially sketchy weather to bring more volume to the run game.
  
• Deon Jackson ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) – The likely “free-square” on DraftKings with the injury to Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor starting the season on the PUP list.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Brian Robinson, JK Dobbins

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play.

• Tyreek Hill ($8,200 DK / $9,200 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin. This is the nut-chalk game of the week in terms of expected scoring and NFL DFS ownership, but Tyreek Hill is one of the few on this slate who’s a damn-near lock for a 30% (or greater) target share and in an up-paced, shootout gamescript. He will be a priority play for me in all formats.
  
• Ja’Maar Chase ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD) – Assuming Joe Burrow is good to go, it is wheels up for Ja’Maar Chase and company against this Cleveland secondary. The Browns made a change to bring in Jim Schwartz at Defensive Coordinator and that will likely lead to Cleveland playing a lot of Cover-1 man, which Chase should feast on. This game has the second highest total on the board for a reason… it is loaded with playmakers and Chase is certainly one of the best playmakers in the league.
  
  Ja’Maar Chases’ ranks from 2022 vs. Cover-1 Man
  – 3rd in REC YDS per game
  – 9th in REC per game
  – 9th in Targets per game
  
  I’d lean Tyreek Hill slightly over Ja’Maar Chase (if I had to choose one), but rostering some other names in this article may allow you to use them both!
  
  If you’re looking to pivot away from a popular Ja’Maar Chase or Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown ($7,600 DK / $8,100 FD) ranks first in all three of those stats above where Chase was highlighted. The Patriots will play a ton of Cover-1…
  
• Keenan Allen ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – On the other side of Tyreek Hill is the vocal point of the Chargers’ passing attack, Keenan Allen. When healthy last season, Keenan Allen averaged over 18 DraftKings Fantasy Points Per Game and drew almost twice as many targets as any pass-catcher on this Chargers’ offense. Keenan Allen is still “the guy” for Justin Herbert and with the change from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore, Allen will move around the formation a bit (instead of strictly slot play like 2022… sounds like CeeDee Lamb type of production is on the table) and the Austin Ekeler red-zone and green-zone target share should significantly decrease in favor of the wide receivers and tight-ends.
  
  On the matchup side of things, Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minded coaches in the NFL, but he’s a guy that does not bring a lot of pressure and will play a ton of zone to avoid explosive plays downfield. Keenan Allen has made a living beating zone-coverage throughout his career and I don’t anticipate that changing this season. Allen is another priority play for me in all formats, especially on a full-point PPR outlet like DraftKings.
  
  Aside from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) is someone myself and the majority of the field will be very interested in. On DraftKings, he’s simply too cheap if you’re looking for a cheap, high-ceiling asset on the slate’s highest expected scoring game.
  
• Chris Olave ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – This is strictly an ownership and price play for me with Chris Olave. In terms of pure talent, this dude is a superstar, but we do have some variables to factor in. First, we have a new quarterback in town with Derek Carr… which is probably a good thing in comparison to what Olave and the Saints had to work with last year. Yes, the WR1 for Derek Carr is usually a strong fantasy asset, but we also have a healthy Michael Thomas that will certainly cut into the some of that incredible ~30% target share Olave logged a year ago.
  
  This matchup against the Titans has been one we’ve loved to attack in years’ past, but this pass defense should be much better than they were a year ago, especially with the addition of Sean Murphy-Bunting. The Titans grade inside the top-three for zone-coverage in the AETY Model’s expected coverage schemes for 2022. I note that only because Olave’s production against zone-coverage was less-than-stellar in 2022:
  
  – 41st in receptions per game vs. zone-coverage
  – 30th in receiving yards per game vs. zone-coverage
  
  Again, this is a new situation with Carr under center so we don’t need to panic over 2022 data. Just listing the above to enhance your research process. At the end of the day, the price is too low for someone of Olave’s talent/workload and with the field migrating towards Jamaal Williams, Olave now offers us some leverage in GPP contests.
  
• Amari Cooper ($5,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – As long as Joe Burrow suits up for the Bengals, Amari Cooper is way too cheap for a WR1 in an expected back-and-forth shootout. We likely won’t see Amari below $6,000 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel again this season. This is an offense we’re going to be playing a lot of in 2023 NFL DFS, especially Amari Cooper against teams that play a lot of man-coverage like the Bengals (Top 5 in expected Fantasy Points per target against man-coverage).
  
• Courtland Sutton ($5,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – Sutton is the number one expected value for AETY Model wideouts now that Jerry Jeudy will miss significant time with a hamstring injury. Sutton may very well be a core-play for me at-home, against this horrendous Raiders’ defense.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($4,900 DK / $6,600 FD) – The matchup on paper looks a bit scary to the public and will likely keep ownership way down across the board leads me to being quite interested in Brandon Aiyuk. I like the price on Deebo Samuel here as well, but going to lead with Aiyuk for the discount and the trust rookie Brock Purdy showed with Aiyuk against the blitz and teams that play a lot of Cover-1 man. That is what we will get here from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their defense is quite strong but this secondary can be beat by the likes of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
  
  Due to the uncertainty in pace of play, Aiyuk is best left for NFL DFS GPP rosters but at the price, you could do worse in cash games.
  
• Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,000 DK / $4,700 FD) – A true punt-value with Jerry Jeudy is on the shelf for a bit. If you need the nut-low in savings, the rookie out of Oklahoma is likely to run a lot of routes against a terrible pass-defense.
  
  For the cash side of things, Jayden Reed ($3,000 DK) is likely where I will punt if we need the cash-game savings.

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf (cash-viable), Calvin Ridley (cash-viable), Chris Godwin (cash-viable on DraftKings), Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel, Zay Flowers, Elijah Moore (cash-viable), Jayden Reed

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• Tyler Higbee ($4,800 DK / $5,300 FD) – Better value on FanDuel, but the AETY Model and the player-prop market seem to both align that Higbee will be the most targeted pass-catcher for whatever is left of this Los Angeles Rams offense.

• David Njoku ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – Hate that I’m writing up one of the most trendy players in season-long drafts, but this is one of the sexier games on the slate and expected coverage scheme for Cincinnati shows this is a plus-matchup for the extremely talented tight-end. It looks like the NFL DFS public will either pay-up for Andrews or flat-out punt the position leaving Njoku as an excellent contrarian player in a great scoring environment.
  
• Greg Dulcich ($4,000 DK / $5,300 FD) – The fantasy public seems to think Adam Trautman is the starting Tight-End in Denver and that may be the case in terms of pass/run-blocking, but there is a substantial need on this team for route runners. That is where the uber-talented, big-bodied, route-running specialist, Greg Dulcich comes in. When Dulcich was healthy last season, he was third on this team in targets per game and third overall in end-zone targets from Russell Wilson. Note, this was all when Jerry Jeudy was healthy. With him out, someone on this team outside of Courtland Sutton is going to have to step up, so let’s give Dulcich a serious look in GPP contests, assuming his ownership is close to 0%.
  
• Cade Otton ($3,300 DK / $4,900 FD) – Otton is one of the few punt options that should have a clear path to five or more targets. A soft matchup against the Vikings’ pass defense should provide a steady path to value for Otton as Baker Mayfield leans on his targets in the middle of the field.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($3,000 DK / $4,700 FD) – Autoplay with no Mark Andrews.
  
  *Bonus punt-play TD Scorer: Donald Parham

Honorable Mention: George Kittle, TJ Hockenson, Gerald Everett, Pat Freiermuth, Irv Smith

Defense / Special Teams

• Philadelphia Eagles ($3,700 DK / $4,600 FD)
• Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,500 DK / $4,400 FD)
• Atlanta Falcons ($3,200 DK / $4,500 FD)
• Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000 DK / $3,800 FD)
• Washington Commanders ($2,800 DK / $4,900 FD) – Absolute steal on DraftKings. The Arizona Cardinals may be the worst football team we’ve seen in years and have no intention of winning football games this season as they tank for Caleb Williams.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,200 DK / $3,100 FD)

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jamaal Williams
• Tyreek Hill
• Jayden Reed
• Isaiah Likely
• Washington Commanders

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Tyreek Hill
• Courtland Sutton
• Brian Robinson Jr.
• Chris Olave

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