Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 6

Welcome back to the Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 11-game slate with some high totals that we will certainly want to keep an eye on for ownership/leverage/etc! If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a much higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. On a small-slate this week, there are not many high dollar quarterbacks to focus on.

• Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) – There is significant blowout potential in this game against Carolina, but the Miami Dolphins offense is the best in the NFL and the targets from Tua Tagovailoa are so condensed, it makes the stacking choices very easy. Despite the risk of this game being over in the first half, the Miami passing attack has the highest ceiling on the slate.
  
  Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert
  Bring-Back Options: Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr., Hayden Hurst
  
• Trevor Lawrence ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – The Colts’ secondary (especially on the outside) is a doormat that should lead to plenty of fantasy production for the condensed target share of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The thing I like most about this matchup with the Colts is that they do not generate much pressure (if at all) on opposing quarterbacks. Lawrence has struggled with pressure in his young career and we simply won’t see much of that on Sunday.
  
  Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
  Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs
  
• Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – Burrow and the boys are most certainly back! We’re not reinventing the wheel this week in the QB player pool and I’m surprisingly quite comfortable with that. Seattle is the 5th worst pass defense on this slate (DVOA) and the Bengals’ passing attack is finally righting the ship. As long as the weather is respectable (could be quite windy and/or rainy), Joe Burrow and Ja’Maar Chase are right back in a fantasy firework type of environment.
  
  Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase
  Bring-Back Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker
  
• Matthew Stafford ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) – As much as I want to fade the Stafford chalk, the AETY Model says he is the best points-per-dollar play on the board. The Arizona defense is coming back down to show their true colors and Stafford has his main man, Cooper Kupp, back in full action. This is the second worst pass defense (DVOA) on the slate and the oddsmakers must agree when they posted an opening 285 yard passing prop for Stafford (highest on the slate). The Rams offense plays a lot of no huddle and has a high passing rate over expectation… things we like to see when rostering a cheap quarterback in NFL DFS.
  
  Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams
  Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore

Honorable Mention: Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – You can certainly play any of the higher priced running backs (CMC, Bijan, Etienne, or Jacobs), but I’ll be using more value at the running back position to help build around the stud wideouts I want to prioritize. Kamara will likely be the highest I go in salary in my single entry GPP lineups. His usage has been through the roof (and I do worry that is coming down), but this is a game against a struggling Houston defense where the Saints will come to play.
  
• Kenneth Walker ($6,700 DK / $8,400 FD) – Too expensive for me on FanDuel, but at 3-5% ownership, Kenneth walker is an excellent GPP pivot against a Bengals’ defense that grades second to last in run defense DVOA. He’s quite touchdown dependent, but he’s a big play waiting to happen at any moment. The Seattle offensive line should be able to have their way with the interior of the Bengals defensive line.
  
• Raheem Mostert ($6,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – The nut-best running back matchup on the board. Sure, we can speculate that Jeff Wilson Jr. or Salvon Ahmed have an annoying role on Sunday, but I don’t want to overthink it… at least in our cash game lineups. Shout-out to FanDuel for getting the price correct.
  
• Joe Mixon ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – There is nothing sexy about Joe Mixon but this guy doesn’t leave the field. His usage is fantastic and is one of the few running backs on this slate that has a path to 18+ touches on a weekly basis. This game is a relatively appealing one from a stacking standpoint and it appears Mixon’s ownership projections are in a free-fall as everyone runs back to Ja’Maar Chase. In tournaments, I can certainly get behind Mixon although we’re begging for some serious goal-line work.
  
• D’Andre Swift ($6,100 DK / $7,200 FD) – He’s going to be extremely popular, but there are just too many good things going for D’Andre Swift and this offensive line (ranked third in run offense DVOA). This Jets’ defense can be ran on and they rank 23rd in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. Swift is the guy in the Eagles backfield whenever the game is in a neutral or one-score environment. It’s hard to pass on this value.
  
• Chuba Hubbard ($4,300 DK / $5,500 FD) – If you need the free-square running back, no need to overthink this one. Hubbard is obviously mis-priced due to a late injury keeping Sanders off the field in Week 6.

Honorable Mention: Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne Jr., Kyren Williams, Alexander Mattison (absolutely love this spot here, just a little concerned about Cam Akers getting a decent workload)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $8,700 FD) – My #1 wideout for the week is going to be Cooper Kupp. I saw enough last week that Kupp is good to go and will be the featured piece of this Rams’ passing attack. Puka Nacua is a stud, don’t get me wrong, but Nacua being on the field greatly helps Kupp. Let’s ride!
  
• Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,300 FD) – For NFL DFS GPP lineups, I’m going to be extremely interested in Davante Adams. Coming off of a down game against his former team, Davante Williams gets’ a depleted Patriots’ secondary that features J.C. Jackson (who Davante Adams has torched throughout his short tenure in Las Vegas). At 5% ownership, I’ll be doing whatever I can to get exposure to Davante Adams against the Patriots’ Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense.
  
• Calvin Ridley ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Taking outside receivers against the Colts’ secondary has become a staple in this article. The Colts will play a ton of Cover-3 and mix in some Cover-4, and that is where Calvin Ridley accels in terms of his targets per routes ran with Trevor Lawrence.
  
  I won’t talk you off Christian Kirk ($5,400 DK / $6,600 FD) either. It’s very rare to see someone priced in the low $5K range with a receiving prop over 60-yards. Having said that, when price isn’t a factor, Ridley is my guy versus these coverage schemes.
  
• Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300 DK / $6,500 FD) – Great price for a solid matchup to where Pittman has a significant size advantage and coverage upgrades. The Jaguars will show a ton of Cover-3 and Cover-1 defense with a good bit of blitz… All three of the above are advantage Michael Pittman Jr. At 5% ownership, Pittman is best left for GPP’s and/or game-stacks, but the price is lovely if you believe in Gardner Minshew.
  
  Josh Downs ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) is also in a nice spot and the ownership will warrant serious consideration to your cash game lineup.
  
• Jordan Addison ($5,700 DK / $6,700 FD) & K.J. Osborn ($4,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – Absolutely loved the 3% ownership smash we had on Jordan Addison last week! Nailed it. This week, this is an honorary write-up due to the matchup against the minor league secondary the Bears’ will trot out and the ownership for both Addison and Osborn. In tournaments, I’ll probably fade the whole situation and maybe pivot to Mattison, but I will not talk anyone off these receivers in this matchup.
  
• Marquise Brown ($5,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! For the price on DraftKings, he’s in play in all formats.
  
• Drake London ($4,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – London and this Atlanta passing game is finally come alive and the secondary for Washington is less than stellar, to say the least. Washington currently grades 28th in pass defense DVOA and will play a lot of Man-coverage with both single-high and two-high safeties. These are coverages where London has shined. At DraftKings specifically, this is a fantastic price for a true WR1 that no one will play… the only downside here is the potential lack of passing volume in the Falcons’ offense (but that is also factored into the price). No need to mention what the hell DJ Moore, AJ Brown, and Stefon Diggs just did to this secondary.
  
• Salary Relief “Punt” Options: Kendrick Bourne, DJ Chark Jr., Robert Woods, Rondale Moore, Brandon Powell, Jamal Agnew

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave, DJ Moore, Adam Thielen, Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Lockett

Tight-Ends

Not a whole lot to discuss at the tight-end position this week. You’re either paying up for Hockenson, taking a mid-tier priced Evan Engram, our punting the position. I’ll simply make a list of those targets for the week.

• T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Without Justin Jefferson, I truly believe Hockenson is the biggest benefactor on this offense. He is by far and away the highest floor tight-end on this slate and someone we should highly considering rostering while the field punts at the position.
  
• Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,500 FD)
• Zach Ertz ($3,600 DK / $5,200 FD)
• Kyle Pitts ($3,500 DK / $5,300 FD)
• Logan Thomas ($3,500 DK / $5,400 FD)
• Hayden Hurst ($3,100 DK / $4,900 FD) – GPP’s only
• Mike Gesicki ($2,600 DK / $4,700 FD) – Risky as all hell and NOT cash-viable. More of a breakdown on the 1st and Stix Podcast.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Raheem Mostert
• Chuba Hubbard
• Marquise Brown
• Ja’Maar Chase
• T.J. Hockenson

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Davante Adams
• Drake London
• Cooper Kupp

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.