Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 5

Welcome back to the Week 5 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 10-game slate with some high totals that we will certainly want to keep an eye on for ownership/leverage/etc! Overall, this will be a short article as I’m taking a very condensed stand on this slate.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. On a small-slate this week, some of the higher total games on the slate the field will love to target will be:

– New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-10.5) / 49.5 Point Total
– Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Los Angeles Rams / 51 Point Total
– Kansas City Chiefs (-5) @ Minnesota Vikings / 53.5 Point Total

• Jalen Hurts ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD) – On a slate with very little Quarterback value, I’m likely going to start my build with a star quarterback who has significant rushing upside. In terms of overall floor and ceiling, I don’t think anyone comes close to Jalen Hurts against the Rams defense that grades in the bottom seven on this slate in overall defense DVOA. Hurts is my overall QB1 on this slate (Mahomes is obviously right there) and will be my cash and GPP quarterback. If you do not wish to be that exposed to Hurts (especially in both formats), the Honorable Mention plays below are certainly worth a look.
  
  Stack Options: A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, D’Andre Swift, Dallas Goedert
  Bring-Back Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, Kyren Williams

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes (probably my FanDuel cash quarterback), Anthony Richardson (cash-viable if the ownership is high), Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson (GPP Only)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DK / $8,200 FD) – By far the top running back on this slate that has no McCaffrey, Pollard, Walker, Ekeler, etc. The Texans are 28th in run defense DVOA and 27th in DVOA against pass catching running backs. This offense runs through Bijan Robinson and the positive touchdown regression is going to come in a hurry. Let’s play the hell out of him before he gets priced up with Christian McCaffrey. The Falcons’ offensive line should reek havoc in this matchup!
  
• Joe Mixon ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – With a lot of the public heading towards the value running backs in high-total games, Joe Mixon should slide under the radar in a fantastic matchup against the Cardinals 27th ranked run defense (DVOA). This is damn near must-win territory for the struggling Bengals and they will lean on Joe Mixon like they have all season (over 80% of the team’s rushing attempts). Usage is king at the running back position.
  
• De’Von Achane ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – What else can we say about De’Von Achane? This dude is special and Mike McDaniel knows it. We love to see the production and the snap share continuously rise into a playable fantasy rate (over 60% in Week 4) and I’m sure the NFL DFS community will be all over him as well. DFS code would say that you want exposure to double-digit home-favorite running backs and that’s exactly what Achane offers us this week. I would expect to still see a lot of Mostert and perhaps some Ahmed, but Achane has to be their guy when they need a play to be made. Assuming his ownership is north of 20%, I’d lock Achane into your cash game lineups.
  
• D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DK / $7,700 FD) – I left Swift out of the player pool last week and lucked out a bit that he didn’t have a bigger game. I was concerned with the blowout potential against the Commanders and what that would look like from a Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott perspective. This week, we shouldn’t have much blowout concern as the Eagles’ defense is starting to look human and the Rams’ offense can put up points. When the game is within two scores, the Eagles are leaning on D’Andre Swift for their running back touches. Assuming the public flocks to Achane in this price-range, D’Andre Swift may be an excellent GPP pivot in our NFL DFS contests this week. It’s never a bad idea to get exposure to the running back of the team with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate.
  
• Isiah Pachecho ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Vikings’ run defense is middle of the pack, but if you want cheap exposure to the lead running back of the highest team total on the slate, Pachecho is your guy. As we likely lock in Travis Kelce in our cash game lineup, I will likely only use Pacheco in GPP builds as we still have come concerns with Jerick McKinnon running routes in the red-zone.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, James Conner, Alexander Mattison

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, the WR pool is going to be tough to load up on, but there is a lot of value!

• A.J. Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – I have nothing bad to say about Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill (maybe gamescript for Tyreek Hill, but I’m reaching) for NFL DFS Week 5 lineups. If you can afford them and want to make them a priority play, I will not argue that. My #1 wideout for the week is going to be A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown came into this year as a notorious man-coverage beater (something Raheem Morris is surprisingly implementing a LOT this season) and someone I would always target against defenses with a high man-coverage rate.
  
  2022 Stats vs. Man-Coverage:
  – 1st in targets per game
  – 1st in receiving yards per game
  – 1st in receiving touchdowns per game
  
  The truly impressive thing here is that A.J. Brown has now taken a MASSIVE leap forward in his success and involvement against zone-coverage (the Rams will also play a healthy bit of Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone)… see below. To top it all off, Brown is currently is 4th among ALL wide receivers in overall targets per routes ran.
  
  2023 Stats vs. Cover-3 & Cover-4:
  – 2nd in targets per game (trails Puka Nacua)
  – Tied for 2nd in receptions per game (trails Puka Nacua and tied with Justin Jefferson)
  – 5th in receiving yards per game
  – Tied for 2nd in touchdowns per game
  
  The dude is a fantasy and real-life superstar. He’s a full go for me in any format.
  
• Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – Just way too cheap for a clear target-hog against a putrid defense. I don’t expect a world-beating type of game with this Jets’ offense and Zach Wilson especially, but on DraftKings specifically, this is a great price for the floor Wilson should offer cash game lineups.
  
• DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – Ridiculous pricing for Hopkins against this Colts’ secondary. He may not be 2023 Puka Nacua, but this passing game runs through DeAndre Hopkins and like Garrett Wilson, the floor is stupid high in comparison to the price on both NFL DFS outlets. Give D-Hop a serious look in all formats against whatever the Colts throw out in their secondary!
  
• Jordan Addison ($5,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Obviously, if you can afford Justin Jefferson ($9,400 DK / $9,200 FD) in an expected shootout with a total over 50-points, you play him. I want to attack this game, but it’s going to take a lot of creativity in your build to do so. I’ll likely be getting my Vikings’ exposure via rookie, Jordan Addison. I can’t imagine anyone in the field plays him when he’s surrounded by cheaper/safer WR1s like Nico Collins and others in this article, so I’ll certainly give him a run in GPP contests. It’s certainly risky, but Jordan Addison should see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed in single man-coverage as the Chiefs’ secondary tries to bracket Justin Jefferson.
  
  The anticipated coverage for Kansas City is going to be a lot of man coverage and a decent bit of Cover-4. Addison’s targets per routes ran against those coverages are much higher than his baseline target share. Lastly, despite a couple quiet outings, Addison is still 25th on this slate in air yards. He’s a big play waiting to happen in what could be a back-and-forth fantasy point explosion on all sides of spectrum.
  
• Marquise Brown ($5,000 DK / $6,400 FD) – There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! I do like the Bengals here in a bounce-back and that should lead to another busy day for Hollywood in the passing game. He’s in play for all formats.
  
• Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – As always, if you need a punt-play, the AETY Model and my (definitely biased) opinion loves Wan’Dale Robinson in what should be an extremely negative gamescript against the high-powered Miami Dolphins. We talked about it in Discord before Monday Night, but Wan’Dale is ramping up his usage and starting to return to being Daniel Jones’ guy (for whatever that is worth… the Giants are bad at football). In Week 4, Robinson was second in receiver routes ran and first in first reads from Daniel Jones by a wide margin, in a negative gamescript against the Seahawks. For the stone minimum and a great passing gamescript, Wan’Dale is viable in all formats (on DraftKings specifically).

Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, DeVonta Smith, Tutu Atwell, Zay Flowers (GPP), George Pickens, Adam Thielen (if Brian Branch is OUT), Rondale Moore OR Demario Douglas (GPP punt pivots if Wan’Dale is chalk)

Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($7,600 DK / $8,789 FD???) – By far the TE1 on this slate and we all know it. The obvious pairing if you’re playing Patrick Mahomes in this shootout and a lock for our DraftKings cash games. I have no problem if you want to go double tight-end this week.
  
• T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Excellent price (especially on FanDuel) for one of the biggest red-zone threats in the highest total game on the slate. For FanDuel cash game purposes, I’ll likely use Mahomes as my quarterback for Chiefs’ exposure and then use Hockenson for the tight-end spot on the other side of that game.
  
• Tyler Higbee ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD) – Like Logan Thomas last week (who missed a touchdown by one-yard), I’ll continue to go to tight-ends against the Eagles. The Eagles rank dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and that’s always nice because most teams are playing from behind from the jump against the Eagles. It’s a nice cheap bring-back if you’re playing Jalen Hurts, but Higbee is certainly viable as a one-off as well.

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jalen Hurts
• De’Von Achane
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Travis Kelce
• Wan’Dale Robinson

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Jordan Addison
• D’Andre Swift
• Isiah Pachecho
• AJ Brown

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.