Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 2

A great start to the NFL season with a lot of winning screenshots for both GPP tournaments and cash games! Personally, my GPP week was nothing special, but we had a ton of success sweeping the board in our cash games and I love to see so many new members riding the cash game wave. Let’s get back at it for Week 2.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. Some weeks I’ll highlight them, other weeks I will not. This week, I do love the top of the board and it will be tough to make a decision on where to go.

• Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,900 FD) – Josh Allen laid an absolute egg on Monday Night Football. There is no other way to put it. The Jets’ defense is going to be one of the best defenses in all of football and it was Week One… let’s not jump the gun here. This is an absolute fantastic matchup against the Raiders’ defense we thought would have gotten destroyed by Russell Wilson and the Broncos (no comment on that game-plan and pace of play from Sean Payton). Josh Allen will be at home and ready to right the ship as he leads the Bills’ and their slate-leading implied team total (~28.5 points) right past one of the worst defenses in football.
  
  It will be hard to not glue Josh Allen (or Stefon Diggs) into our cash game lineups and you’re obviously more than welcome to fire Josh Allen in NFL DFS GPP contests, but he will be popular in a tough gamescript to project.
  
  Stack Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis
  Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
  
• Justin Fields ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD) – Get ready to puke, but my 1% GPP ONLY play of the week (weather permitting) is going to be Justin Fields. Yes, the Vikings arguably pass more than anyone in the NFL, but this Bucs’ defense gave up over 270 passing yards to Kirk Cousins in ONE HALF. I mention that because we need any boost we can when trying to find an upside matchup for Justin Fields’ passing game. In addition, the Bucs will likely be missing one of their better defensive backs, Carlton Davis, and pass rushed Calijah Kancey.
  
  On the not so gross side of things, we play Justin Fields for his rushing ability. Todd Bowles and the Bucs love to bring the blitz and that’s where Justin Fields historically loves to use his legs. In 2022, against teams that have a well above average blitz rate, Fields averaged over 100 rushing yards per game. If the weather stays respectable for a fantasy football environment, Justin Fields could break this slate wide open.
  
  Stack Options: Cole Kmet, DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney
  Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White
  
• Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – A little bit of a bummer last week for Herbert but the rushing touchdown saved his fantasy day. The Titans’ defense is an absolute pass-funnel as expected and this will be a situation to attack on a weekly basis. Hell, Derek Carr torched them for over 300 yards. Look for Kellen Moore to really dial up a strong game-plan for the air attack, just like he did last season when the Cowboys went to Nashville to play the Titans pass-funnel defense and they threw the ball 41 times (8 more than their team average) despite never being behind in that game. Keep in mind, Tony Pollard was out that week, but from the looks of things, Austin Ekeler is doubtful to dress for this one as well.
  
  With or without Ekeler, Herbert is a fantastic NFL DFS play on any given week, but this is almost a scream from the mountain-top type of play if Ekeler misses this one. Moore will lean on Herbert and this passing attack. At a current ownership projection around 5%, Herbert is a full-go in any format you wish to play.
  
  Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
  Bring-Back Options: DeAndre Hopkins (D), Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks (if Hopkins OUT), Chig Okonkwo
  
• Joe Burrow ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – Pretty damn cheap on FanDuel, but always in play on DraftKings in a matchup against a depleted Ravens’ secondary. Top coverage defensive backs Marlon Humphrey is likely OUT and Marcus Williams will miss the majority of this season with a torn pec, leaving Brandon Stephens, Ronald Darby, and Rock Ya-Sin to try to cover Ja’Maar Chase and Tee Higgins. Good luck to the Ravens’ secondary.
  
  Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins
  Bring-Back Options: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value. A good way to get different this week with all the value at the running back position is to PAY UP in GPP’s.

• Christian McCaffrey ($8,200 DK / $9,500 FD) – Best running back on the slate and you don’t need me to write about McCaffrey. Loved the usage last week even when that game was relatively out of reach for the Steelers.
  
• Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – If you can’t afford McCaffrey or want to simply pivot to someone who the AETY Model is confident will have similar usage (if not more) to CMC’s last week in Pittsburgh, fire up Saquon Barkley against the worst team in football.
  
• Derrick Henry ($7,400 DK / $8,300 FD) – I wouldn’t look a whole lot into Tyjae Spears snap count in Week 1. This offense still runs through Derrick Henry and this is a game Mike Vrabel and company are going to try their best to slow-down. If the Titans’ want to stay in this game, they’ll be giving Derrick Henry a ton of touches in a plus-matchup against the Chargers’ defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA in 2023 and 30th in 2022. We should continue to see some work in the passing game in Week 2 against the Chargers’ heavy blitz rate.
  
  Due to the price and those around him, Henry is more of a tournament play for me in NFL DFS this weekend.
  
• AJ Dillon ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD) – Similar situation to Josh Kelley below. It appears Aaron Jones is going to miss Sunday’s game in Atlanta so there is some clear value in this Green Bay running back spot.
  
• Kenneth Walker III ($5,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – It looks like the majority of the mid-tier running back ownership is going to flock towards Kenneth Walker. I’ll likely ride the ownership wave in cash games but give a serious look to others in that price range in tournaments as the Seahawks offensive line will be missing both Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas.
  
  On the bright side, Walker was the only running back in Week 1 to rank inside the top ten in Team Rush Attempt Share and Team Route Participation. Sometimes, volume is really all we are looking for in the mid-tier.Pair that with a good bit of Cover-2, soft zone coverage by Detroit and we should have some strong running avenues.
  
  *David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $6,300 FD) is a serviceable pivot if Walker’s ownership gets a bit out of control… Especially on FanDuel. Keep in mind, the Lions will be out two of their top linemen and this could open up the check-down game to Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 / $5,800 FD).
  
• Josh Kelley ($5,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – Assuming Austin Ekeler is OUT, Josh Kelley becomes this week’s Jamaal Williams. Likely a full-go in cash games (if the ownership warrants it), but I’m still leaning towards this Chargers’ passing attack as mentioned above with Kellen Moore’s history of this situation.

Honorable Mention: Bijan Robinson (excellent GPP pivot), Travis Etienne Jr., Joe Mixon, , Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Dameon Pierce, Zack Moss, Rachaad White

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play.

• Stefon Diggs ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin and criminally cheap on FanDuel. Like Tyreek Hill last week, Diggs is one of the few on this slate who’s a damn-near lock for a 30% (or greater) target share against a horrible Raiders’ defense we attacked last week. The difference in Diggs’ spot this week compared to Hill’s in Week 1 is the gamescript. My only concern here is the lack of back-and-forth nature that we saw in the high-total shootout last week in Los Angeles. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders keep up with a pissed off Bills team looking to make a statement at home.
  
  As mentioned above, Stefon Diggs or Josh Allen will be a priority for me in my cash game lineup and Diggs may end up being a priority play for me in all formats.
  
• Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD) & Tee Higgins ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – Basically said it all in the Burrow write-up. The Ravens should offer up a lot of Cover-3 and some Cover-1 man and that is advantage to both Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase. Look for them both to splash in this matchup against a whatever is left of this Ravens’ secondary.
  
• Mike Evans ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD) & Chris Godwin ($6,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – If you’re into this game as a sneaky GPP game-stack or mini-stack, the Bears’ will be starting a rookie cornerback in Tyrique Stevenson to run around with Mike Evans and likely another young backup in Josh Blackwell at nickel as Kyler Gordon was placed on IR. Currently, Josh Blackwell is highly questionable to play and that puts this Bears’ secondary in a very, very dark place.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) & Deebo Samuel ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – I’ll be happy to ride the hot hand of Brandon Aiyuk on DraftKings at that price-tag and the red-zone blitz scheme the Rams will bring to the table. For cash games, Deebo Samuel is too cheap. This Rams’ defense cannot keep up with the 49ers and the sportsbooks seem to agree as the 49ers have the 3rd highest implied team-total on the slate.
  
• Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $6,700 FD) – I always love Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD) do again this week, but the price and matchup for Mike Williams is too good to pass up this week with this pass-funnel defense that will land Mike Williams across from Kristian Fulton. Williams has about a half-foot height advantage and too much skillset for a guy like Fulton, especially in the red-zone when the Titans tend to lean towards man-coverage.
  
  UPDATE: Both Amani Hooker and Kristian Fulton are out… Let’s eat!
  
• Jahan Dotson ($4,900 DK Only) – A week after everyone plays him… let’s ride! Basically, just the same matchup Jakobi Meyers just exploded in as Patrick Surtain will put a curtain (hehe) on Terry McLaurin for most of this matchup. Truthfully, it broke my heart to watch by “bring-back” Davante Adams get bottled up all game last week on my Russ stacks, but watching Meyers destroy the rest of this Denver secondary got me excited for Dotson in Week 2.
  
  The price is so cheap and the AETY Model grades him as one of the best mid-tier values on the DraftKings board. Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis are arguably one of the worst coverage-back duos in the NFL.
  
• Treylon Burks ($4,700 DK / $5,400 FD) – As of now, it appears DeAndre Hopkins will be out with an injury so that opens up the world for a hopeful breakout, Treylon Burks. As long as you think the Chargers will be able to do whatever they please through the air on offense, Treylon Burks will be heavily involved in the Titans’ passing game after a Week 1 let-down. Regardless of that game, Burks still lead this team in routes ran… production will come.
  
  UPDATE: Hopkins is a GO. Temper expectations for Burks but his ownership will be WAY down and still a fantastic game environment for a breakout game. Tournament play only.
  
• Josh Reynolds ($3,700 DK / $5,900 FD) – I’d love to say DraftKings only on Josh Reynolds but I absolutely love the matchup for him and obviously the price on DraftKings. He is still in play on FanDuel in this matchup to take advantage of some dreadful coverage from the Seattle secondary. We’ll likely see a ton of Cover-3 zone and that is advantage to Josh Reynolds as he works Tre Brown and Coby Bryant all day long. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) will certainly get his, but for $3,700, Josh Reynolds and the savings will be a core-play for me in all formats on DraftKings.

Honorable Mention: Amon-Ra St. Brown (always cash-viable), Calvin Ridley (cash-viable at this ownership), DK Metcalf, DJ Moore (he averages like 18 fantasy points per game against the Bucs), Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Jayden Reed

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• George Kittle ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – The targets and the routes were there for Kittle last week and I love that no one is interested in him this week. The Rams will play almost exclusively 2-high and Cover-4 zone defense with a solid blitz rate… that is advantage George Kittle and our boy Deebo Samuel. If I can’t get to the price-tag in NFL DFS, I’ll get my exposure through taking his over 38.5 receiving yards in the prop market.
  
  Kittle gets in the box this week.

• Cole Kmet ($4,400 DK / $5,200 FD) – Although Carlton Davis is OUT for Week 2 (and that opens things up for DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney), I’m still likely to use Cole Kmet as my preferred stacking option with Justin Fields. The Bucs’ defense will run a lot of Cover-3 and blitz a ton (especially in the red-zone)… that is advantage Cole Kmet. When teams ran a blitz (five or more pass-rushers) inside the 15-yard-line on Justin Fields in 2022, Cole Kmet was targeted on 50% of the routes than he ran. That is absurd.
  
  In addition, three of Kmet’s seven touchdowns came in those situations. Let’s ball out, Cole (weather permitting)!
  
• Chig Okonkwo ($3,300 DK / $4,700 FD) – Playing Okonkwo was something we invented last year at Win Daily (feel free to go fact check that) and I’m going to go back to that spot this weekend assuming that Hopkins is out. If Hopkins is in, it’s a slight downgrade to Okonkwo, but more-so Burks. The Chargers will play a man coverage with a mix of Cover-3 and a heavy blitz rate. Tim Kelly seemed to have let Chig loose last week as it was the first time in his career he surpassed a 70% route participation. The usage and a receiver and coverage setups that benefit Chiggy make him a fantastic value play on both NFL DFS outlets.
  
  *Bonus TE TD Scorer: George Kittle (have to run it back after the Donald Parham hit!)

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, Luke Musgrave

Defense / Special Teams

• Dallas Cowboys
• Houston Texans (FanDuel)
• Detroit Lions
• Green Bay Packers
• New York Jets

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Josh Allen
• AJ Dillon
• Josh Kelley
• Ja’Maar Chase
• Josh Reynolds

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Justin Fields
• Mike Williams
• Derrick Henry
• Cole Kmet and/or DJ Moore (chose your bring-back of Godwin/Evans if you wish)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.