Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 8.9
MLB has only scheduled five games for this Monday evening, which is a bit of a surprise. The chalk is going to be heavy on this pitching slate and some of that chalk is going to be hard to argue against. Let’s discuss that and more, including where we can find our edge in the Starting Rotation 8.9 to find green screens again!
Starting Rotation 8.9 – Main Targets
Freddy Peralta
We’re honestly not going to spend a ton of time here since Peralta is likely going to push 70% in GPP settings and he is an inarguable must in cash game settings. Peralta sits eighth in swinging-strike rate at 14.2% and is tied for second in K rate at 34.5%. Workload concerns have been a bit overblown from Milwaukee, as he threw 98 pitches in the last start. In the previous start, he was pulled at 68 pitches because the Brewers were beating up the Buccos by 6+ runs. It’s a small sample, but the Cubs are striking out at a 26.8% rate since the Trade Deadline and we saw both Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon eclipse double-digit strikeouts the past two games. Peralta has statistically been the superior strikeout pitcher this year and he’s a stone-cold lock. I’ll lose with him before I fade him tonight.
Luis Castillo
We could take the Double Ace Tulloch Special approach on this slate (and would require a cheap offense to pull it off) as Castillo continues his resurgence. He’s only been below 16 DK points once in the past 10 starts and six have been over 22. After his disaster first couple months, the ERA over the next 75.1 IP has not been over 2.15, the wOBA has not been over .272, and the K rate has been over 25%. He’s producing like the ace he is and his price has finally caught up, which is why Peralta will carry all the popularity.
The Cleveland lineup is projected to only have three lefties, which would help Castillo. That has been the worse side of the plate for him with a .330 wOBA, 4.57 xFIP, and a 14% walk rate. What also helps Castillo is the Cleveland offense is 23rd against the changeup, which has been the most-thrown pitch for the righty. The change has generated a 30.5% whiff rate, a .287 wOBA, and has 50 strikeouts on the season. What’s really interesting is if Castillo draws a righty-heavy lineup, that actually forces his slider into play far more. Cleveland is 14th against it but rates as a -9.1 for FanGraphs. His slider also has the best whiff rate at 42.3% and the lowest wOBA at .201. His sinker and slider are the most-used pitches to righties, which opens a different avenue for Castillo in this spot.
Joe Musgrove
We’ve not been playing Big Joe lately, and past the start against the Rockies it hasn’t burned us in the least. However, this lines up well for him and we can’t ignore him tonight. Miami is coming out of Coors Field on their West Coast swing and we know that offenses coming out of Denver tend to struggle in their first game after that series. Musgrove has used the slider/curve mix about 50% of the time and those pitches are going to look even harder to hit after Coors.
Both pitches are over a 35% whiff rate and the wOBA is not higher than .215 for either. Musgrove’s fastball-style pitches have been the ones that have hurt him, with wOBA’s over .370. Miami sits 29th against fastballs and 16th against cutters. The other good news for Musgrove is he’s only projected to face two lefties. He’s held righties to a .234 wOBA, a 26.4% K rate, and a 0.89 WHIP. Interestingly, his xFIP is higher against righties but the Marlins and their 28th ranked ISO can make that matter. We could see Musgrove as the chalky pairing with Peralta.
Jameson Taillon
Someone has to explain to me how Taillon goes from $10,200 and scoring 27.3 DK points down to $7,800 because that’s absolutely ridiculous. His FIP has been under 3.35 in the past four starts and owns a healthy 24.1% K rate on the season. He’s been using the four-seam a bit more lately and things have just started to come together for him in the past 30 or so days. His July ERA was 1.16 and the wOBA has gone under .250 in that period, along with a FIP under 3.50.
Jamo has been better against righties and there should be five in the lineup for him to face tonight. They whiff at a 24.9% rate and the xFIP for the season is barely over 4.00. Not only are the Royals 25th against the fastball, but they are also 19th against the slider and 17th against the curve. Every pitch for Taillon has at least a 20.4% whiff rate and the pitch data suggests a great spot for him. Perhaps Jamo drops back down to the 4-6 strikeout range after 10 in his last start. That’s fine considering the price and he could be an interesting pivot from a possibly chalky Musgrove.
Starting Rotation 8.9 Honorable Mention
Lucas Giolito – I’m about done trying to get him right but maybe that means he’s going to score 25+ DK points tonight. July saw his xFIP climb to over 4.00 and the K rate was right about 25%. The issue with Giolito is the fact that the metrics always look solid and then he doesn’t actually pitch well. The inconsistency has been maddening. His four-seam is giving up a .333 wOBA compared to .260 in 2020 and the Twins are second against fastball this season.
Carlos Hernandez – The young righty for the Royals has scored over 20 DK points in the past two starts and his xFIP from those games is under 4.50. The other metrics like hard-hit rate are a mixed bag and he’s been worse against righties, a concern with the Yankee lineup. His curve and slider have both generated a 38.2% whiff rate or higher to go with 21 combined strikeouts. He’s only using them a combined 36% of the time so it’s risky, but he’s about as low as you can go in salary tonight.
Starting Rotation 8.9 Stacks
It should shape up to be a long night for the Twins pitching, as they plan to use Beau Burrows as an opener, followed by lefty Charlie Barnes as the primary pitcher. That works for me because we love White Sox against lefties with a focus on Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn. Barnes has only pitched against a total of 32 righties with a .338 wOBA and a K rate under 10%. Vaughn and Abreu have hammered lefties so far with a wOBA of at least .370 and an ISO over .300 for each. Jimenez only has 13 (admittedly putrid) PA against lefties so far but is coming off a double-dong game last night and he had a .267 ISO last season. Barnes is giving up a 46.4% hard-hit rate against righties and I’m very interested in the White Sox.
The secondary portion is a bit of a split. Cleveland is using a bullpen game tonight with Sam Hentges “starting”. As long as Nicholas Castellanos is $4,000 on DK, he will be in my lineup without any question. The full lineup is in play although the matchup is impossible to break down on a hitter-by-hitter basis.
The other players I will consider using one or two of actually come from the Twins side of things. Listen, we know that Giolito has the potential to shove any start but he also has the potential to get blasted. The top fastball hitters on the team are Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez. I’m not using all of them together but the latter three all have a wOBA over .350 and everyone has an ISO over .202 except for Arraez. Giolito is worse against righties in part because he uses the changeup more to lefties. Garver is my favorite of the bunch, followed by Polanco, Arraez, and Sano last because it’s hard not to go Abreu in a White Sox stack.
- Padres against Zach Thompson
- Brewers against Alec Mills
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
