Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 8.7
Saturday is here and it brings us a split slate of MLB action spread throughout the day! The afternoon is a small five-game slate and then we get to the main course of 11 games in the evening. We have a whole lot of work to do so let’s get right after it in the Starting Rotation 8.7 and figure out who we like to help lead us to green screens!
Starting Rotation 8.7 – Early Slate
Carlos Rodon – There are some warning signs with Rodon and I wouldn’t blame anyone if they tried a strategic fade. His velocity has been sketchy the past two starts and it is noteworthy he’s already at more IP in any season since 2018. Having said that, the Cubs are seventh in K rate against lefty pitching at 25.1% and Rodon is still sporting a 35.2% K rate on the year and it has held firm above 32% in any month of the season. His four-seam and slider combo both have a whiff rate over 30% and a wOBA under .275 with a total of 145 strikeouts. Even in July when his HR/9 went up to 1.38, the xFIP was still under 2.90. The Cubs are a lineup we need to consider picking on constantly, and I will likely be doing that today. The only facet that would knock me off him could be the weather in Wrigley, and only if the wind is blowing out.
Cole Irvin – This is not a pitcher that typically makes our list since he has a K rate under 18% and all of his pitches have a whiff rate under 23.5%. The four-seam and changeup are his two primary pitches and both do have a wOBA under .265, which is going to help against the Rangers. They remain in the bottom five in all of our offensive categories and just haven’t been anything but a bad offense through most of the season. They are also 28th against the change and 26th against the fastball, which is a big help for Irvin. The swinging-strike rate is not super impressive at 9.5% and he’s holding righties to a .283 wOBA. At $7,500, he makes plenty of sense and we don’t need a boatload of strikeouts.
Starting Rotation 8.7 Honorable Mention
Robbie Ray – I’m likely to stick with that pairing but Ray is on the slate and we have to discuss him. It’s a double-header so be careful with offenses but we could potentially see Ray go for a complete game. Boston is inside the top 12 against the fastball, which is certainly a concern for Ray since he throws that pitch right about 60% of the time. He’s had three starts against the Red Sox and two have been excellent while one was tough. I also have some worries after the teams got into it a little bit last night and there could be some retaliation. Still, Ray is over a 30% K rate and his walk rate is still under 7%. His 15% swinging-strike rate is second in the league and the only fear is the Red Sox are top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS against lefties.
I’m going to bet Andrew Heaney carries some popularity and you guys know exactly how I feel about Heaney when he’s chalk. Seattle does carry the third-highest K rate against lefties at 26.7% but is 15th in ISO and eighth in fly-ball rate.
Starting Rotation 8.7 Early Stacks
I’m really only going to focus on one offense for the short slate and it’s the left-handed hitters from the Chicago White Sox. The Cubbies have Adbert Alzolay pitching and he’s got some of the worst numbers against lefties in all of baseball. They are up to a .414 wOBA, 5.08 xFIP, 8.58 FIP, a 4.01 HR/9, and a 38.4% hard-hit rate. Yoan Moncada, Gavin Sheets, Cesar Hernandez, and Brian Goodwin are ALL in play if they make the lineup. Hernandez looks the best via the pitch data with a .261 ISO against the slider, which is the most-thrown pitch to lefties for Azolay. That’s still under 33% of the time, so we can focus on the other three hitters sitting over a .345 wOBA and a .150 ISO on the season. The other plus is they are very affordable so you can spend on pitching however you like.
- A’s against Drew Anderson
- Mets against Ranger Suarez
- Mariners righties against Heaney
Starting Rotation 8.7 – Main
So we’re going to attack the larger slate a bit differently. Four pitchers sit above $9,500 and I do have some type of interest in all of them. We’ll do quick hitters on each and then a ranking at the end, then move onto the other pitchers who make the list. This is a slate where I think you can strongly consider at least eight options with one punt that I really like.
High-End Options
Picking the right guy between Julio Urias, Luis Garcia, Yu Darvish, and Brandon Woodruff could be the key to this pitching slate. I have to imagine they carry four of the top six spots in projected popularity, roughly.
Let’s start with who I’m not a huge fan of and that’s Woodruff. He’s seen his K rate go down every month since May and while 26.8% is still solid, it’s not quite as good as what he’s shown when pitchers were using sticky stuff. The Giants should roll out five lefties which means Woodruff will rely on the changeup more than normal. It does have a 40% whiff rate and only a .195 wOBA but it also has just 14 strikeouts. Even with the Giants striking out a lot at 25.7%, they did get Brandon Belt back which lengthens the lineup. Woodruff has more starts under 15 DK points than he has above 24 over his past 10.
Garcia hasn’t completed five innings in either of his past two starts but his price is still way up there. I don’t quite understand Garcia, to be frank. The K rate is awesome at 29.3% and every pitch other than his four-seam has a whiff rate over 42%. That’s all four other pitches this man throws. His pure stuff is flat-out nasty. The issue is he’s using that four-seam 47.3% of the time and it’s not fooling anyone. It does have 39 strikeouts but it also has nine of 13 home runs, a .393 wOBA, and a whiff rate of 19.2%. Minnesota is ranked first against the fastball this season, a large red flag. Also, they could throw out four lefties and that’s been an issue for Garcia as well. Lefties have a .337 wOBA and a 1.40 HR/9.
This is a great spot for Darvish by what the splits tell us. He should face five lefties plus the pitcher spot (although that didn’t work last time out as German Marquez took him yard) and Darvish has held lefties to a .263 wOBA, 1.17 HR/9, and a 28% K rate. The large fear with him is he had a Charles Barkley-style TURRIBLE July, racking up a 7.36 ERA, .385 wOBA, 3.16 HR/9, 24.1% K rate, and a 6.43 FIP. Arizona is sitting at a K rate over 24% so this is a soft landing spot for Darvish but those numbers are frightening. It’s a leap of faith even though Darvish is one of the game’s best pitchers when he’s on his A-game.
Urias has honestly been a rock in the Dodgers rotation. He had a bit of a scuffle in June but righted the ship in July with a 2.30 ERA, .264 wOBA, and a 20% K rate. He’s got the right side of the plate at a 25% K rate and a .274 wOBA, both fairly strong marks. The xFIP to either side isn’t above 3.56 and his curve/changeup mix is the best weapon in his holster. Urias throws those two pitches roughly 50% of the time with the four-seam making up the other half. The curve/change has 84 total strikeouts and neither pitch has allowed a wOBA over .193. The Angels rank 17th and 19th against those two pitches. Even though the Angels offense is top 10 across the board in our offensive categories, I think Urias is up for the challenge.
Rank – Urias, Darvish, Woodruff, Garcia
Not Quite High-End Options Due To Me Deciding The Cutoff Is $9,500
Charlie Morton seems to have a love/hate relationship with me (I liked you when you were in Pittsburgh, you’re a good dude Mr. Morton) but it’s hard to cast him aside here. I suppose if Juan Soto is back the spot gets worse but Washington’s lineup is never going to look good on paper the rest of the way. Morton is sporting a ground ball rate over 47% and his K rate is just under 28%, an excellent mark for him. His swinging-strike rate of 12.2% is just about as good as it has ever been, so that checks out for him. The four-seam/curve mix is the backbone of his arsenal and they have a combined 125 strikeouts. The curve is still among the league’s best (he’s second in FanGraphs rating while Urias is first) and it’s only allowed a .184 wOBA with a 42.8% whiff rate. I’m going to be fascinated to see how these first five options shake out tonight in popularity. We may be able to use that to our advantage.
If you want to ride the lightning, Shane McClanahan is that dude. It’s not the greatest spot ever as the Orioles are superior against lefties but we saw this kid’s upside in his last start. He went six innings, struck out seven Red Sox hitters, and only allowed a solo home run. I was able to watch and he was overpowering guys like J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. Through his 77 IP, the young lefty has a 28% K rate to go with an 8.3% walk rate and a massive 15.8% swinging-strike rate. Max Scherzer leads the majors at 16%. His four-seam hasn’t been a huge plus yet with a .403 wOBA but his slider/curve/change mix all have a whiff rate over 41%, a wOBA under .275, and have 71 of 91 strikeouts. Baltimore should send out eight righties and they only have a 28.9% hard-hit rate. Just remember, he’s a rookie on Tampa. The range of outcomes is wide but he could be left behind on this slate.
The Punt To Afford Some Hitters
To tweak a famous Michael Buffer phrase, Let’s Get Ready To Gomberrrrrrr!!
Austin Gomber barely survived the first inning last game, throwing 40 pitches and giving up four runs with a -3.4 DK point score. That start was against the Padres, so it’s easy to chalk that up as understandable. Tonight’s start comes against the Marlins, a much different offense. Miami is 28th or lower in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, slugging, and they strike out at a 27.9% clip against lefties. On top of that, they are eighth in ground ball rate. Even if you only look at Coors stats, Gomber has a 49.4% ground ball rate, 4.13 xFIP, 20.6% K rate, 0.85 WHIP, .240 wOBA, and a 1.98 ERA. He’s far too cheap and I think popular, although he should be. My general plan is to pair one of Gomber or McClanahan with Morton, Urias, or Darvish.
Starting Rotation 8.7 Honorable Mention
Jose Berrios/Tanner Houck – This could turn into a bit of a pitcher’s duel in the doubleheader nightcap. Houck likely has the hardest path to glory but his first 39 innings in the majors have been excellent all around. The ERA is 1.62, the FIP/xFIP combo is 2.38/2.99, and the K rate is 33.6%. It’s risky using him against Toronto but let’s see what lineups look like for both teams. Houck has generated a 13% swinging-strike rate thus far but he has been worse against righties at a .304 wOBA. hat’s an issue against righty-heavy Toronto.
Berrios sparkled in his first start for the Jays, striking out seven across six scoreless innings. I definitively prefer Morton in the much easier matchup but Berrios has a K rate of 25.8% and his curve has a .245 wOBA and a 36.1% whiff rate. That is his primary pitch but Boston is second against it.
Starting Rotation 8.7 Stacks
Oh boy, do I hope the Reds still have runs left in their bats. I mentioned to Jimmy in Discord I feel like the Buccos get freight trained every trip into Cincy and they have scored 17 runs through the first two games. Their starters have been destroyed and now they send Mitch Keller into the lion’s den. That’s….not good for Pittsburgh as Keller has a wOBA over .375 to each side of the plate. He uses the fastball around 50% to each side as well and the Reds feast on that pitch. Jonathan India, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, and Tucker Barnhart are all over a .235 ISO and .388 wOBA against righty fastballs.
Since some of these hitters are very expensive, I plan to pay up for one spot and I lean Votto. He has the best marks against the fastball and has a .443 wOBA with a .354 ISO against righties, the best on the team. India is at a .365 wOBA and I want the leadoff hitter, but I may prioritize a different second baseman tonight. After that, Castellanos is still just way too cheap even though he’s looked not quite there in his first two games back from the IL. Mitch Keller is about to fix that and he’s at a .412 wOBA on the year. If you’re wearing a Reds uniform, I’m interested and it’s mostly going to be the puzzle of fitting with my other stack.
We can still get a nice chunk of Coors exposure and the Rockies face off against Jesus Luzardo. I’m going to apologize to Ghost right now because he loves Luzardo (I love the talent too) but this is not a great spot. I’m passing on India because Brendan Rodgers looks spectacular for a cheaper salary. Luzardo’s fastball is what gets him into trouble with a .352 ISO with a 57% hard-hit rate and his sinker carries a .237 mark. Rodgers crushes fastballs with a .462 ISO and has a .448 wOBA against lefties. Trevor Story hammers the sinker with a .370 ISO and a 58% hard-hit rate to go with a .367 wOBA on the year against lefties. Lastly, Garrett Hampson is sitting at a .243 ISO against lefties and is a great cheap way to get into Coors tonight.
- Dodgers against Jamie Barria
- Tigers/Cleveland game stack
- Rays against Spenser Watkins
- Braves against Josiah Gray
- Astros against Michael Pineda
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
