Starting Rotation 8.5

Starting Rotation 8.5

We have another split slate today with smaller slates in both the afternoon and evening. Regardless of slate, the pitching options are not really great. Since they’re about even in terms of games, we’re going to be going over both slates so let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 8.5! 

Starting Rotation 8.5 – Early 

Aaron Nola – His popularity is going to be sky-high since he’s clearly the most talented pitcher on the slate. On paper, playing him makes all the sense in the world. The Washington lineup is severely hampered but they have been feisty in spots we haven’t expected since the Trade Deadline. Nola sports a 28.8% K rate and the four-seam and curve have done the most strikeout damage with 94. His four-seam has been an issue at the same time with a .365 wOBA and just a 22.8% whiff rate. Juan Soto is the best fastball hitter on the team and sits seventh in the league. That’s a concern for Nola since the lefties have a .316 wOBA against him. His road numbers have also been poor this year across 64.2 IP with a 5.29 ERA and the FIP and xFIP are both much higher as well. The difficult part is on this short of a slate, we may not like a whole lot else. 

Alex Wood – I’m super interested to see what the field does with him today. He’s seen some regression that he was due since the start of June but July leveled out so his 3.83 ERA pretty much matches the FIP and xFIP. The K rate was also over 26% in July compared to 25.2% on the season so I feel comfortable with the current form, for the most part. It’s also interesting to see that Arizona is a tougher matchup for lefty pitching. They are top 12 in all of our offensive categories but in two starts, Wood has racked up 11 IP, 15 K’s, 4 ER, and eight total hits. What could help explain that is Arizona sits 26th against the slider and that has been the money pitch for Wood. He’s racked up 66 strikeouts, a .237 wOBA, and a 39.3% whiff rate. Wood throws it 31.7% of the time so he has to be in play on this slate. 

Spencer Howard – Let’s walk on the wild side in the first start for Howard as a Texas Ranger. Lifted from the Phillies at the Deadline, Howard does have some pedigree and former potential. Things never took off in Philly but there is reason to hope. For one, Howard has a K rate over 32% in the minors this season and it sits at 24.4% through 28.1 IP in the majors. I don’t love the fact he’s been using the four-seam 69% of the time but it does have 17 strikeouts with the .353 wOBA. He’s induced an 11.2% swinging-strike rate in Philly this year and 12.2% in the minors. While he does have issues against righty hitters at a .374 wOBA this year, the Angels lineup is not imposing. Since the start of July, LA sits 27th in ISO, 23rd in OPS, 21st in OBP, 24th in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. They have only whiffed 22.6% of the time in that span but at Howard’s price, you don’t need a lot of strikeouts. Just get me five quality innings and we’ll call it square. 

Starting Rotation 8.5 Early Honorable Mention 

Merrill Kelly – I’m not sure if I need to go here, but Kelly is at least on the board. San Fran is a very good offense, but they also strike out the second-highest rate to righty pitching. He’s better to lefties at a .266 wOBA and he uses the changeup a lot to that side of the plate. It hasn’t registered a ton of strikeouts but it does have the highest whiff rate of any pitch in the mix. Only two of the top six hitters against the change hit from the left side of the plate for the Giants. The arrival of Kris Bryant has balanced the lineup a bit more, so let’s see what the Giants run out there on a getaway day. 

Starting Rotation 8.5 Early Stacks

This is a rare spot that I might somewhat cast aside the pitch date. The Colorado Rockies don’t look especially great against the sinker, which makes up the majority of the pitch mix for Jake Arrieta. He’s getting mauled this year with a 6.20 ERA and a 5.96 FIP while both sides of the plater are right around a .377 wOBA. He’s not striking many hitters out as he sits under 20% and the one player I want a piece of is Trevor Story. I’ve been skittish with him because he was not happy the Rockies didn’t trade him at the deadline but he rates as the best hitter against righty sinkers with a .283 ISO and a .445 wOBA. From there, we can use Sam Hilliard and his .286 ISO, C.J. Cron and his .408 wOBA in Coors, and Garrett Hampson at a .369 wOBA. Really, any player is on my radar from the Rockies lineup against Arrieta. 

In July, Tarik Skubal started to revert back to the home run prone pitcher with a 2.93 HR/9 and the K rate dropped to 20%. That is decidedly NOT what you want when the Red Sox are coming into town and J.D. Martinez, Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and Xander Bogaerts all sit over a .315 wOBA and a .170 ISO against lefties. All of these hitters are well over a .220 ISO against fastballs and Skubal is using that almost half the time with a .321 ISO and a 41% hard-hit rate. You can interchange Xander and Story at shortstop and build out from there. 

• Rangers against Dylan Bundy 
• Cubs against Antonio Senzatela 

Starting Rotation 8.5 – Evening 

Sonny Gray – My goodness this slate is gross for pitching. Gray wouldn’t even be that high for me on a normal slate but on this one, I think he might be popular. If we can find other options we like and he’s heavy chalk, maybe we can find pivots. Now, in fairness to Gray, he’s had some poor results with a 4.26 ERA compared to a 3.32 xFIP and 3.82 FIP. Perhaps that starts to equalize with the Buccos ranking last in ISO against righty pitching. The .340 BABIP is easily the highest of his career and the highest since 2018 on top of that. 

There is still a lot to like for Gray based on the metrics like his 29.7% hard-hit rate, 29% K rate, and an 11% swinging-strike rate. The other good news for Gray is the righties in the Pirates lineup are not fearsome. Righty hitters have gotten to Gray for a .367 wOBA and a 4.77 FIP. The flip side is lefties only have a 2.73 xFIP, 33.1% K rate, and a .284 wOBA. He’s going to be overwhelming chalk in cash, but I’m unsure in GPP if I’ll go with the field yet. 

Framber Valdez – I don’t love the K-BB% for Valdez at just 10.7%. The K rate is low at 21.5% and the walk rate is high on top of that at 10.7% so I do prefer Gray even as what I expect will be a chalkier option. Valdez does sport a 10.2% swinging-strike rate which isn’t poor and the Twins don’t look that great against lefty sinkers. That’s the main pitch for Valdez at 49.5% but the strikeout pitch is the curveball. Minnesota ranks 20th against it and it has 50 of 66 strikeouts with a .162 wOBA and a 41.6% whiff rate. There should be three lefties in the Twins lineup and that helps as Valdez has a 2.91 xFIP and the 29.7% K rate. Righties do have a 3.76 xFIP and a wOBA over .300, but the options are limited here. I do like Gray slightly better with slightly less investment. 

Nestor Cortes – The glorious mustache is back on the mound tonight, fresh off a start that lasted five innings. I would expect he will get pushed towards that if not further now that the Yankees are down Cole and Jordan Montgomery on the Covid list. They need innings and Cortes has been strong in his 32.2 IP this year. The FIP is 2.18 and the ERA is 1.93 while the K rate is 30.5%. He does have some fly-ball tendencies at 42.9% but the hard-hit rate is just 28.2%. Cortes uses his four-seam around 44% of the time and it has 24 of 39 strikeouts so far. Seattle sitting at 27th against fastballs is nice and they whiff at 27% against lefties. Righty hitters only have a .208 wOBA and lefty hitters have a 2.65 xFIP against Cortes. Too many factors line up for him to not like him on this slate. 

Starting Rotation 8.5 Evening Stacks

We went to Cincinnati yesterday during the day and I’m heading right back there today. Wil Crowe takes the mound tonight and he has a 5.11 xFIP against lefty hitters along with a 4.62 mark against righties. Both the fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate are over 32% and that will likely not end well in Great American Small Park. One of the chalky parts of the stack could be Nicholas Castellanos. He could be back from the IL tonight and has crushed righties with a .415 wOBA and .256 ISO. He’s only $3,700 and the field likely flocks there. We can build out the stack with Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and Jesse Winker as main targets. They all rate well against the fastball and have at least a .358 wOBA and a .234 ISO against the fastball, which is the main pitch for Crowe. 

I’m likely going with mini stacks from there because if we use a Gray/Cortes combo our salary could be limited. We can utilize some cheap White Sox hitters like Andrew Vaughn and Seby Zavala against Daniel Lynch. He had an xFIP over 6.00 in his last start and Zavala is at a .318 wOBA with a walk rate over 30% while Vaughn crushes lefties with a .442 wOBA and .322 ISO. We just need two more spots to fill from the other stacks listed. 

• Yankees against Tyler Anderson 
• Blue Jays against Triston McKenzie 
• White Sox against Daniel Lynch
• Astros against Griffin Jax 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!