Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 8.4
We do have somewhat of a split day in MLB today as there is a four-game slate in the afternoon and then an 11 game slate in the evening. We’re going to focus solely on the 11 games in the article and then we can chat about the four gamer in Discord. The 11 game slate doesn’t appear to have many value options but let’s get down to business in the Starting Rotation 8.4 to carve our path to green screens!
Starting Rotation 8.4 – Main Targets
Lucas Giolito
My initial lean is to not pay up for Giolito, but we have to talk about him. He just faced this Royals offense and scored 22 DK points which would be fine at this price point but not great. Giolito has been a bear to peg correctly this year and Kansas City doesn’t strike out a ton, which limits the upside a bit. They are only at 22.2% this year which is the sixth-lowest in the league. KC also ranks 23rd against the fastball and 17th against the changeup which is about 80% of the arsenal for Giolito. The four-seam has struggled the most with a .325 wOBA allowed but it should help that Jorge Soler was the third-best fastball hitter in the KC lineup.
It’s just been a weird year for Giolito. He’s sporting a K rate over 28% and the only pitcher that has a higher swinging-strike rate than his 15.1% mark is Max Scherzer. You would think that would to some stability but that just hasn’t been the case. His K rate is close to each side and even though the wOBA is higher against righty hitters at .316, the xFIP is almost the exact same around 3.80. Giolito is fine but I don’t see him as a must-have in any format.
Jameson Taillon
I’ll be the first one to say that the price is scary but I wonder if that sours the field on him. He did just win AL Pitcher of the Month and he really earned it. Through 31 IP in that month, the ERA was 1.16, the K rate was 20.5%, and the WHIP was 0.97. Now, the K rate isn’t spectacular and the xFIP was a frightening 5.14. If this was a different matchup, I could be arguing the other way but Taillon draws a Baltimore offense that has struggled mightily against righty pitching this year. The K rate is 24.6% to go along with the 29th OPS, 30th wOBA, and 28th wRC+. Additionally, they are bottom-five against the fastball and that’s been a key for Taillon in this great run.
To wit, that pitch garnered a positive FanGraphs rating in every start in July except for one that was rated -0.2. Taillon has also seen his best results against righty hitters, which should occupy seven of nine slots in the batting order. His walk rate is just 4% with a 4.24 xFIP and a 27.5% hard-hit rate. It’s going to be interesting to see what the field does with him, especially with the next two pitchers on our list.
Shohei Ohtani
It’s hard not to love Ohtani tonight as he brings a 30.1% K rate to the mound and he’s cut his walk rate down to under 11%. Texas is 17th in walk rate against righties and that likely will get worse with Joey Gallo in New York. They are also top 12 in K rate at 24.6% which sets up well for Ohtani. His swinging-strike rate of 13.7% would be ninth if he qualified and his splitter continues to be the destroyer of worlds. It still has a 53.9% whiff rate and a .112 wOBA against it through 32 BBE. The new Texas lineup could really line up perfectly for him as well because they are projected for eight righties. Ohtani’s strength is against righties with a 36.2% K rate, a 0.23 HR/9, and a .232 wOBA. He does feature the slider a bit more to righties than the splitter but that pitch has a 37% whiff rate and Texas is 22nd against that pitch. All in all, I think Ohtani will wind up being my favorite pitcher on the night.
Max Scherzer
Let’s start out by discussing the fact this is not the easiest matchup on paper. Houston is the only team in baseball with a K rate under 20% against righty pitching. Just on that facet, it’s not a spot that screams upside. They are also first in wRC+, second in OPS and wOBA, and seventh in ISO. Normally this is a team that we run away from but Mad Max is debuting in Dodger Stadium at $9,100. Maybe he winds up not being a cash play. Maybe we just need some exposure in GPP but this salary is insane, regardless of matchup. He doesn’t have to face the DH and I mentioned earlier that he leads the league in the swinging-strike rate at over 16%. The K rate overall is 34.3% and LA should help his fly ball tendencies as well.
The loss of the DH is really a big deal because that will likely take Yordan Alvarez out of the lineup if Houston plays their normal one. That leaves them righty-heavy and that means a steady diet of the four-seam/slider combo from Scherzer. They have combined for 99 strikeouts so far and the slider has a .198 wOBA against it. Both pitches have a whiff rate over 34% as well, which helps explain why the K rate to that side is over 35% and the xFIP is 2.98. I won’t say I’m all on Max but the matchup is better than it might appear to be with no DH and I will absolutely be playing him tonight.
Matt Harvey
Harvey has looked a lot more like this in his past three starts –
This one is risky and that should go without saying. Still, Harvey has scored at least 18 DK in his last three starts and there have been some subtle changes in the pitch mix. He’s started to utilize the curve and change about 5% more each so they are around 17-19% in these past three starts. His curve hasn’t gotten great results but it does have the highest whiff rate of any pitch at 31.6%. His changeup has a .201 wOBA which is the lowest of any pitch as well. That has helped the four-seam play better and he has a positive FanGraphs rating in the past three starts on all three pitches. The seasonal data points to him being worse to righties in wOBA at .376 but that’s in part due to a .377 BABIP. The xFIP is only 4.17 and the Yankees whiff over 25% of the time against righties. I get the lineup is different now but they are 25th in ISO, 20th in wOBA, and 18th in wRC+. We did just see Jorge Lopez control this lineup and it’s not out of the realm to see Harvey do it as well.
Starting Rotation 8.4 Honorable Mention
Kevin Gausman – The Regression Monster has come for Gausman a little bit in these past couple of starts but this could be a good bounce-back spot. He hasn’t got out of the fourth inning in the past three starts and has given up 11 total earned runs. Still, the K rate is 30% and the D-Backs don’t have the most imposing offense. In the last start against them, Gausman racked up 27 DK points but I do prefer Ohtani for sure and likely Scherzer as well.
Carlos Carrasco – Another pitcher that I’m fascinated to see what happens to tonight. The past two nights, Mets pitchers have been chalky and haven’t pitched exceptionally well. Carrasco is rolling into his second start of the year and could likely go up to 75-80 pitches. In the first game, he whiffed 25% of the hitters he faced but also had a 5.16 FIP. I tend to think he’s pricey and if he’s chalky as well, I’d be comfortable fading.
Starting Rotation 8.4 Stacks
We’re running it back tonight as the braves face another pitiful lefty in J.A. Happ after they walloped Jon Lester last night. Happ has gotten taken to the woodshed against righties with a .397 wOBA, 2.22 HR/9, and a 5.49 xFIP. His fastball and cutter both give up over a .235 ISO and a .354 wOBA. Jorge Soler, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, and Adam Duvall all hammer fastballs. They are all over a .205 ISO and a .390 wOBA against that pitch. Adam Riley is a stud against the cutter with a .308 ISO (and all the other players rate well too) and this lineup is set to smash.
Not only can we afford a pitching combo of two pitchers over $9,000 each, but we can still stack up some Coors Field hitters. Alec Mills will pitch for the Cubs and he only has a K rate of 16.8%. While he is a ground ball pitcher at 55.4%, that’s not something I’m fearful of in Coors. He’s struggled against lefties with a .364 wOBA and an xFIP over 5.00. In Coors this season, all of Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, and Raimel Tapia have wOBA’s over .325 and ISO’s over .360. Even C.J. Cron is a strong play with a .400 wOBA and a .312 ISO, even though he’s on the right side of the plate. All of these hitters are super cheap for the opponent and venue.
- Blue Jays against J.C. Mejia
- White Sox against Carlos Hernandez
- Angels against Kolby Allard
- Tigers against Eduardo Rodriguez
- Red Sox against Casey Mize
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
