Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 8.3
We have all 30 teams in action tonight and we finally have some good pitching options to choose from! These slates have been very far and few between lately but we can have some quality tonight. We also have to deal with Coors Field and a depleted Cubs lineup which complicates things a bit in the Starting Rotation 8.3 so let’s get busy!
Starting Rotation 8.3 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole
Cole had a bizarre outing the last time. It’s not often a pitcher gives up seven earned runs and still scores 13.2 DK points but that’s exactly what Cole did. He struck out 10 Rays hitters and he gets a far better spot for his ability this time around. I don’t really expect 13 strikeouts across seven innings like his first start against the Orioles since Cole has been far iffier since the crackdown on the sticky stuff. He’s still generating a 34.4% K rate with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate on the season which sits seventh in the league.
His four-seam leads the way with 73 strikeouts and Baltimore sits 27th against that pitch, not to mention they are 10th in K rate against righty pitching period. Cole has also been better against righty hitting with just a .232 wOBA, 3.05 xFIP, and a 47.5% ground ball rate. He does see the K rate split significantly as righties are at 30.1% and lefties are at 39.2%. All in all, Baltimore is in a way worse spot tonight compared to their home run derby against Andrew Heaney last night.
Well. That’s not happening. As of Monday night, we don’t have an announced starter for the Yankees. That’s going to push more of the field to Wheeler I assume but we’ll have to see.
Zack Wheeler
I’m hoping that folks back off Wheeler based on the last game against the Nationals, but I don’t expect it (especially now). He’s pitched too well this season to be passed over but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler and Cole shake out for projected popularity. The Nationals lineup resembles a AAA lineup at this point with Juan Soto being borderline the only threat. Gone are Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, and even Starlin Castro. If you take all those hitters away, Washington is only about 20th against the fastball. His four-seam has 70 strikeouts on the season and a 25.7% whiff rate and his slider only has a .233 wOBA against it.
Wheeler will face a balanced lineup in all likelihood with four righties and four lefties but that hasn’t mattered much. The wOBA to lefties is .254 and righties have only managed a .257 mark. His K rate is above 28.4% to each side as well so there’s not a particular weakness based on the splits. I love Wheeler in a bounce-back spot here this evening.
Yusei Kikuchi
The results have been uneven for the lefty lately but this is a fantastic spot. We’ve hammered any quality lefty against the Rays all season long. They sit 22nd or worse in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO, slugging, OBP, and they strike out 27.1% of the time. Not only does Kikuchi have all that going for him, but his strikeout pitch has also been the slider with 41 on the season. That and the changeup also boast a whiff rate over 35% on the season while Kikuchi is flirting with a 27% K rate. He’s also sporting a ground ball rate over 50% to combat the 39.2% fly-ball rate for the Rays.
Tampa could also throw out three lefties and that would help Kikuchi a lot. His K rate to that side of the plate is 34.4% with an xFIP of 2.23. Even against righties, the xFIP is 3.73 and they whiff almost 25% of the time. The price is slightly elevated but with the matchup at hand, there’s not a big reason not to utilize him.
Kenta Maeda
I don’t think this is the greatest spot for him but I think he could be a little chalky. The Reds whiff under 23% of the time and it’s not the best ballpark considering he has a 35.5% fly-ball rate. Now, the good news is Maeda has been pitching as we all assumed since the start of July. In his 29.1 IP, he had a 2.15 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, .231 wOBA, and a 33% K rate. Those metrics would be insanely valuable at his salary. It’s more of a matter of if he can do it in this park against this offense.
His splitter and slider both have a whiff rate over 31.5% of the time even with the struggles he’s had in the early part of the season. The lineup is split evenly between righties and lefties so there’s no real advantage there but Maeda doesn’t have to face a DH, which helps. At a guess on Monday night, I bet the Wheeler/Maeda combo is the cash duo for the field.
Adrian Houser
This may seem like an oddball play since the strikeout is king and Houser doesn’t have that capability. He is facing the Pirates for the third time in six starts, which is a small concern but the first two starts resulted in 23 and 17 DK points. If he qualified, he would lead the majors in ground ball rate by around 5% at 59.9%. The Pirates simply don’t whiff a lot but they are 11th in ground ball rate themselves. A big issue on this slate is I’m not sure how comfortable I am dipping below this threshold. He’s only a salary saver and if the field flocks to Maeda, he could make a very interesting pivot. There is really not a lot to talk about here. You’re playing him with the salary involved and hoping he grounds the Pirates offense with 3-4 strikeouts.
Starting Rotation 8.3 Honorable Mention
Note – With the loss of Cole on this slate, one of the pitchers we talk about here is likely going to turn into a main target. I want to see where the field goes to figure out who the cash option would be and who would be a nice pivot in GPP.
Walker Buehler – Houston does sit just 13th against the fastball and Buehler relies on it heavily but this isn’t the spot for me. Houston is dead last in K rate against righties at 19.8%. Buehler has been on a roll in the last four starts with at least 28 DK points, but the price is just a hair too high for the matchup in my eyes.
Sean Manaea – I’m not always a fan of pitchers against the same offense twice in a row but Manaea has been lights out the past two games with 22 strikeouts over 13 innings. The Padres are missing Fernando Tatis which is a serious downgrade to that offense. His K rate is over 27% on the season and while the Padres don’t strike out a ton, they are right around 23%. I like other pitchers better but I’m not sure I can mount a strong argument against it if you want to play him.
Hyun Jin Ryu – I prefer Kikuchi for just $100 more but Ryu faces Cleveland who sits in the bottom-five in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties on the year. His K rate is just 20% which is a big reason why I prefer Kikuchi and his swinging-strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2014.
Kyle Freeland – This is pretty much just an MME style play because I think the Cubs could come in popular. They are not overly expensive for a Coors Field offense and Freeland had a fairly strong July. The ERA was only 2.40, the wOBA was .292, and the HR/9 came down to 0.60. He started to use the four-seam a lot more around 45% and that has been the best pitch results-wise.
Starting Rotation 8.3 Stacking Options
Brian is once again missing one of his favorites as Jon Lester takes the mound and the Atlanta stack against him is super affordable. We can start with the newest players in Jorge “Free Square” Soler has a .357 wOBA and .276 ISO on the season while Adam Duvall sports a .212 ISO. He has struck out a TON at 363% against lefties but that shouldn’t be an issue against Lester. Both players are easy to fit even with expensive pitching and that’s not even counting someone like Ozzie Albies, who should be a core play in any build. He’s racked up a .275 ISO and .402 wOBA against lefties and he and Dansby Swanson have hit the four-seam/cutter combo the best on the team. Those pitches make up over 60% of Lester’s arsenal on the season and both have given up a wOBA over .420. Righties in general have a .395 wOBA, 5.44 xFIP, 6.19 FIP, and a 2.09 HR/9 against him so a hitter like Austin Riley is in a prime spot as well.
On a slate this size, I will typically max out at no more than four hitters from a team, and usually, I keep it at three. With that in mind, I’m going right back to the Giants tonight as they smash lefties and they face Madison Bumgarner. MadBum hasn’t been totally atrocious but the 42.3% hard-hit rate and the 47.4% fly-ball rate to righties seem like something that will bite him here. Buster Posey, Darin Ruf, and Austin Slater all stand out. Posey and Ruf are both over a .425 wOBA and .215 ISO this season while Slater sits at a .351 wOBA. They are all in the positives against the cutter (Slater is tops on the team) and that pitch is giving up a .359 wOBA from Bumgarner. Of course, Kris Bryant is in play as well.
- Yankees against Alexander Wells
- Angels against Jordan Lyles
- White Sox against Kris Bubic
- Phillies against Patrick Corbin (pending lineups)
- Rockies against Zach Davies
- Mariners against Luis Patino (lefties only)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
