Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 8.2
Welcome into the Monday slate and I’ll be honest – there are not going to be a ton of options. If your initial reaction looks like this, I can’t say I blame you.
We only have seven games and we may struggle to find even five options that we really think can pitch well. Even by the recent standards, the Starting Rotation 8.2 is going to be a challenge but we’re up for it to find the green screens!
Starting Rotation 8.2 – Main Targets
Note – As of this writing, the Angels have not announced their starting pitcher. It could be Shohei Ohtani, which would be a very chalky option if he’s available. Let’s pretend Ohtani will not pitch until Tuesday and we can update is Discord if we have to.
Tylor Megill
If you would have mentioned to me two months ago I would have been thinking about paying $9,600 for Tylor Megill, I would have responded with a hearty “Who in the world is Tylor Megill??”. Well, here we are and here I am at least considering it. Do I think Megill is actually worth the salary? That’s a stretch but he has shown strikeout ability through 35.1 IP with a 27.1% rate. The swinging-strike rate of 11% is strong as well and three of his four pitches have a whiff rate over 28%. The FIP/xFIP of 3.44/3.89 are a good bit apart from the 2.04 ERA but it’s not like the former combo is poor.
The splits are far from something we can put in stone, but the early returns would suggest that the Marlins lineup helps Megill. He gets five righties in a normal Miami lineup and has held them to a .209 wOBA, 3.09 xFIP, and whiffs them at a 29.3% rate. The Marlins are also consistently in the bottom 10 of our offensive categories with a K rate over 25%. I want to see exactly how chalky he is before making the final decision.
Anthony DeSclafani
Tony Disco has one thing going for him that Megill doesn’t and that’s an actual track record to fall back on. In his two starts against Arizona, he’s racked up 13.2 IP, 12 K’s, and just three earned runs. That would certainly play on this slate and he has turned to the slider/four-seam combo as his main two pitches. Not only do they both possess a whiff rate over 25.5% but the D-Backs are 23rd or worse against both pitches. The K rate for DeSclafani is only 23.3%, which isn’t special but it’s not the worst either. Arizona should help in that facet as well with a K rate over 24%, the 12th highest in the league. It should be a lefty-heavy lineup but DeSclafani has a .277 wOBA to that side and a 3.68 xFIP, which is better than the 4.19 mark to righties. I believe DeSclafani will be my favorite on the slate as of now.
Josiah Gray
If you haven’t read this article most of the year, welcome in. If you have, you all know I have a weakness for talented young pitchers and the upside they present. Gray is inside the top 50 prospects in baseball, depending on where you read. He’s also had some poor results so far in eight innings with a 6.75 ERA and an 8.28 FIP. So what in the world is he doing here? Let’s discuss.
First off, the xFIP is just 3.79 and it highlights the absurd 44.4% HR/FB rate thus far. I have to stress it’s only eight innings but the K rate has been 37.1% and the swinging-strike rate is 20%. He’s given up almost an earned run per inning and he’s still scored 12 DK points in both starts. Every pitch has a whiff rate over 35.1% so while there is a risk, there is some serious upside here as well. Philly has a 23.7% K rate on the season and his xFIP is better to righties, as is the K rate. Philly is projected to put out six righties and is no better than 16th against any pitch on the season.
Starting Rotation 8.2 Honorable Mention
Andrew Heaney – I will mention him but I can’t see myself playing him tonight. It’s the first start for him in Yankee Stadium and that may not end well for a pitcher that has a 1.53 HR/9 on the year. Baltimore is far better against lefties on top of that at seventh in OPS and wRC+ to go along with 10th in wOBA. The xFIP to righties actually looks pretty solid at 3.51 but the 43.4% fly-ball rate and a hard-hit rate over 35% is scary.
Starting Rotation 8.2 Stacks
Brian is somewhere in the Great White North, fending off penguins and seals so that means someone has to take up the mantle of writing up the Rays. It’s my turn to keep the seat warm because I love them tonight. Chris Flexen has not had the best time away from Seattle so far and the largest key is he has not shown a lot of strikeout ability at 15.5%. That has been the Achilles heel for Tampa as they sit inside the top 10 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They’re an elite offense with a high K rate of almost 26%. If Flexen can’t miss bats, he should get mauled.
Someone needs to explain to me the pricing on Austin Meadows. The seasonal data includes a .389 wOBA, and a .320 ISO. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged almost 10 DK points per game but he’s still only $4,500. Flexen uses the four-seam/cutter mix almost 55% of the time and Meadows has a wOBA over .380 and ISO over .210 against those pitches. Ji-Man Choi destroys the cutter with a .520 ISO and he’s sitting over a .400 wOBA on the year against righties. Brandon Lowe is expensive but also does his damage against fastball-style pitches and don’t look now, but Wander Franco is awake as well. He’s hitting .350 over the past 10 with an OPS closing in on almost .900.
If you’re going with a Megill/Desclafani pitching duo, we need salary savers with the Tampa stack and I’m looking towards Baltimore. My favorite two are Pedro Severino and Austin Hays, with the Baltimore catcher really standing out. Heaney uses the fastball 54% against righties with a 47% hard-hit rate and a .249 ISO, easily the worst of any pitch. He’s given up 16 total home runs and 11 have come from the fastball. It just so happens that those Orioles hitters both have an ISO over .295 and a wOBA over .355 against that pitch. If you wanted to go with a 3/3 approach, Trey Mancini could take the place of Choi from Tampa since he also destroys the fastball with a .483. ISO.
- Yankees against Jorge Lopez
- Mets against Jesus Luzardo
- Giants against Taylor Widener
- Brewers Bryse Wilson
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
