Starting Rotation 7.9

Starting Rotation 7.9

It’s Friday and based on the first look, this slate of pitching is going to be pretty difficult in some respects. There are a ton of pitchers up top in salary that has zero business being there. I think that could mean we live more in the mid-range but let’s go over everything and figure out where we’re heading in Starting Rotation 7.9! 

Starting Rotation 7.9

Starting Rotation 7.9 Upper Tier 

We’re going to deal with this slate a little differently and I’ll classify the Upper Tier as pitchers above $9,000 tonight. A couple of them have some potential but the price is totally egregious. I’m going to say now that past ownership in cash, I don’t believe there is a “must-have” pitcher tonight. I will also note that Taijuan Walker will be starting for the Mets and is right at the edge of this tier. His analysis is in yesterday’s article!

Jake Odorizzi leads the pack in salary and we just saw a fastball-heavy approach from a righty pitcher quiet the Yankees back. That doesn’t mean Odorizzi and Logan Gilbert are the same, but Odorizzi definitely lines up well against the Yankees given the metrics he’s produced so far. Righty hitters only have a .215 wOBA with a 3.67 xFIP. The K rate is only 24.4% and I’m just concerned if he can get over the 20 DK hump here. 

Alex Cobb has shown his complete instability in the past five starts. One has been 18 DK, two have been in the negatives, and two have been over 28 DK. That’s not exactly who I want to fork over $9,800 for and Cobb can be tricky to get right. The ERA is 4.60 and the xFIP is 2.79, but they’ve been that way the whole season. Cobb would also feature splits that are appealing as lefties have a .236 wOBA, 3.01 xFIP, and a 26.7% K rate. Seattle can whiff with the best of them at over 26% and he features the splitter. It has a 36.2% whiff rate and Seattle is 28th against said pitch this season. If he was $2,000 cheaper, I would be very excited. 

Charlie Morton is my favorite of the upper tier…I think. The Marlins would look like a target with just about any competent pitcher but it has to be noted Morton has faced them three times already. He’s totaled 15.1 IP, 13 ER, 19 strikeouts, and eight walks. It’s pretty bizarre to see that since the Marlins are a top-six team in K rate at 25.5% and sit 21st or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and OBP. Everything should line up for Morton as he has a .268 wOBA to righties and a 25.9% K rate. His main two pitches are the four-seam and curve and the Marlins are 18th or worse against those pitches. Every metric we value says Morton is the best play but it doesn’t bring me a lot of comfort to see those three starts already this season. 

Rank – Morton, Walker, Odorizzi, Cobb

Starting Rotation 7.9 Middle Tier 

Cole Irvin – This will almost certainly be where I’m living tonight because I don’t want to spend on pitching I don’t particularly love. Texas isn’t the same exact strikeout matchup against lefties at just 23.6% and perhaps the biggest issue for Irvin is he only has a 17.3% K rate himself. What helps is they are also bottom 10 in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season including all the way down at 28th in ISO. The Rangers also are fourth in ground ball rate which helps Irvin and his paltry 37.1% rate. Both his fastball and changeup are at a .280 wOBA or below and Irvin has walked through tougher matchups than this so far, despite his xFIP over 4.50. 

Kenta Maeda – I would suspect this will be the chalkiest play of the slate after Maeda dropped 35 DK points at 5% ownership. Brian and the WD team had the majority of that ownership but it won’t be the same tonight. Maeda’s seasonal stats are far less important than what he showed in his last start. Maeda generated a 32% whiff rate and his slider/splitter combo was on full display. He’s been slightly better to lefty hitters on the season which does help and we know that Detroit is in the top three when it comes to K rate. The Tigers are also 22nd or worse against the slider and splitter and I believe Maeda could be on his way back after a pretty rotten first half. 

Alek Manoah – Some of the analysis is going to repeat from yesterday even though the matchup is different. Having said that, I think we need to discuss the risk associated even with this salary which is not different than yesterday. His slider has been the key to his success because in the two games it has been in the negatives in FanGraphs ratings, he’s gotten hammered. When it’s been a good pitch, he’s seen his best starts including this last one, one against Boston, and his debut. That pitch leads the pack with a 34.7% whiff rate and 22 strikeouts so far. By his splits, the Rays are a poor matchup for him since he gives up a .333 wOBA and a 2.12 HR/9. However, that didn’t stop Manoah from racking up 10 strikeouts in his last start against them. If he’s popular at this price point I’ll play him in cash but if not, he should be GPP-only since he just faced Tampa and has flaws in his game. 

Rank – Maeda, Irvin, Manoah

Starting Rotation 7.9 Primary Stack 

Triston McKenzie takes the hill tonight for Cleveland and that means I’m looking directly towards a Royals stack. McKenzie has a 6.38 ERA and a 5.33 xFIP so I can’t say he’s just been unlucky and even though the Royals don’t have the best offense, they can get the job done here. He’s using the fastball 55% to righties and 60% to lefties and it gives up a .171 ISO, .319 wOBA, and 322 average distance. Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana, and Hunter Dozier all have ISO’s over .200 (Dozier is over .300) and wOBA’s over .350. 

Dozier is the only player that has a wOBA under .300 on the season against righties so the whole top of the order is in play. McKenzie has been worse to lefties with a .363 wOBA and a 5.79 xFIP so that’s where their advantage lies. The righties advantage could lay in the slider data. McKenzie uses is 32% to righties and it has a 378-foot average distance. Merrifield looks weak against that pitch but Perez has a 49% hard-hit rate and a .230 ISO against it. The top five are easy to love in this spot. 

Starting Rotation 7.9 Secondary Stacks

• Twins against Matt Manning (it was a tough decision between them and the Royals)
• White Sox against Jorge Lopez
• Giants against Paulo Espino 
• Red Sox against Vince Velasquez
• Braves against Zach Thompson 
• A’s against Jordan Lyles, who threw 124 pitches last time out

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!