Starting Rotation 7.8

Starting Rotation 7.8

It’s Thursday and we have another split slate of MLB action, although today is a bit more unbalanced. We get just a three-game slate in the afternoon and then a seven-game slate in the evening that includes one of the most puzzling pitcher salaries I can recall this year. We’ve got plenty of work to do and good results to replicate from yesterday so let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 7.8! 

Starting Rotation 7.8 Early 

Jordan Montgomery – To my eyes, there will likely be only two pitchers that I’m looking at pending lineups. Lefties against the Mariners has been a target all year and they are fourth in K rate at 27.2%. Not only that, they sit 25th or lower in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. Montgomery has a K rate over 23% himself and his primary two pitches are a curve/change combo. They both have a wOBA under .255 and whiff rates over 37% on the season and the Mariners are 23rd or worse against each pitch. The Mariners lineup could be exactly what Montgomery is looking for because they typically leave five lefties in it. He’s whiffing that side 28% of the time with a .225 wOBA and a 22.9% hard-hit rate. If he can control the righties, this could be a smash spot and we know he’s shown upside this season. 

Lance McCullers – He comes at a premium but on a three-game slate, the options are pretty slim. The A’s are a very good lineup as far as using his pitch mix because McCullers continues to have a sharp divide on his slider and curveball depending on what side of the plate he’s facing. The righties get the slider which has a .228 wOBA and a 39.2% whiff rate and the lefties get his trademark curve, which is a 34.2% whiff rate and a .258 wOBA. Oakland is first in fly-ball rate against righty pitching but McCullers can counter that with a ground ball rate over 53%. He’s generating an 11.7% swinging-strike rate and the A’s are right about 23% in K rate. He will be chalky, but I’m not sure how willing I am to take a shot with anyone else. 

Starting Rotation 7.8 Early Slate Primary Stack 

You may be wondering why I’m not talking about Logan Gilbert as he’s been one of my go-to values the past couple of slates. That’s not the case today because the kid is showing promise but he’s still far too reliant on the fastball. He threw it 72% of the time in his last start and unless your name is Jacob deGrom (it’s not, his name is Logan Gilbert), you can’t do that at the major league level. It’s a big reason why Gilbert started strong and then couldn’t make it through six innings. 

He’s throwing it around 55% of the time in his short career to righties and New York does not have issues with that pitch. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela  ALL have an ISO over .240 and a wOBA over .370 against that pitch since 2016. Torres is the only player this year with a wOBA under .300 and an ISO under .165 against righty pitching. I plan on loading up on the Yankees (who are suddenly really hitting) on this slate and filling in the gaps with some cheap D-Backs or Rockies. 

Starting Rotation 7.8 – Main Slate 

Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer 

I want to attack these two a little differently since they’re in the same game and they are the clear choices of the ace tier tonight. It’s a battle of the heavyweights in San Diego, and I’m going to bet right off the hop that Darvish is more popular. Let’s face it, he does have the easier matchup. Washington strikes out more, albeit just by 1.1%. The Padres also rank higher in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+, so advantage Darvish. Washington is due to throw out just three lefty hitters and Darvish sees a good spike in K rate to the right side. It’s 33.5% to righties with a 3.42 xFIP while lefties have a 27.8% K rate and a 4.02 xFIP. There’s no doubt that Darvish and his 30.6% K rate can get the job done. His whiff rate for his top four pitches is all over 22% and he’s an elite option. 

Now let’s flip that the other way. If I know all those facts and you know all those facts and Darvish is let’s say 40% and Mad Max is 15%…that makes things a much different equation. If that’s the case, you play Darvish in cash and move on. However, I’ll play Scherzer in that scenario in GPP every single slate. His K rate is 5% higher than Darvish’s at 35.5%, the ERA is 2.10 with a 3.25 xFIP, and his swinging-strike rate is a career-high 16.7%. It’s a little odd because righties have fared better this year in wOBA at .280 but the xFIP is still just 3.06. The HR/FB rate to that side is 18.9% which won’t keep up. His four-seam and slider both have at least a 35% whiff rate and when he faces the lefties, his change has a .152 wOBA. I’ll let my ownership guide me but I’ll be interested in both sides of this pitcher’s duel. 

Taijuan Walker 

When a pitcher throws some type of fastball 56% of the time and he’s facing the Pirates, he has my curiosity. The fact that Walker has a 2.44 ERA with a 3.06 FIP and 25.9% K rate has my attention. My Buccos can be a little pesky and they may not be the best team to target for strikeouts, but Walker is at a price that if we get 5-6 that’s going to work out just fine. He likely faces five lefties and that does max out his strikeout upside by the splits since he has a 28.7% K rate and a .227 wOBA to that side of the plate. Walker can thank his four-seam for some of that since it has 45 of 87 on the season and a 28.6% whiff rate. We do have to note that the xFIP to both sides is over 3.75 so there likely is some regression coming. With the Pirates on the road and ranking dead last in ISO, OPS, and wOBA, maybe we don’t see that regression quite yet. 

Adbert Alzolay 

I think the first three pitchers we’ve talked about have the most relatively safe outcomes on the board and now we’re into pitchers who can see results swing one way or another. One of the biggest factors in potentially playing Alzolay is the opposing lineups. He’s one of the pitchers that have some of the most significant splits in the league. Lefty hitters own him with a .391 wOBA, 3.66 HR/9, 1.34 WHIP, and a 7.82 FIP. On the other side, righties have a 29% K rate, 0.87 WHIP, and a .236 wOBA. His slider is the primary pitch and has a 35.1% whiff rate, .221 wOBA, and 48 strikeouts on the season. His four-seam has a .486 wOBA and he uses that more to lefties than righties, which helps explain some of the issues. Philly strikes out over 24% of the time and sits 18th against the slider, so Alzolay has some upside. However, he has plenty of blowup potential and Bryce Harper stands out as one of the best one-offs on the slate and could be part of a lefty stack for Philly. 

Alek Manoah

So Manoah went out last time and put up a monstrous 37 DK points with 10 strikeouts across seven innings and looked utterly dominant. He was $7,900 in that game and tonight against the Orioles his salary is *checks notes* $6,800. He went down $1,100. 

Having said that, I think we need to discuss the risk associated even with this salary. His slider has been the key to his success because in the two games it has been in the negatives in FanGraphs ratings, he’s gotten hammered. When it’s been a good pitch, he’s seen his best starts including this last one, one against Boston, and his debut. That pitch leads the pack with a 34.7% whiff rate and 22 strikeouts so far. Baltimore is over 24% for the K rate and likely go with a 3-6 split of lefty-righty hitters. That’s what we would like to see as Manoah has a .227 wOBA, 0.71 WHIP, and a 30.7% K rate. If he’s popular at this price point I’ll play him in cash but if not, he should be GPP-only. 

Starting Rotation 7.8 Honorable Mention 

Tyler Mahle – He’s flirting with a 30% K rate and the home/road splits are at least somewhat noticeable when a pitcher calls Cincinnati home. Mahle pitches to a 6.06 ERA, .363 wOBA, and a 5.10 FIP at home compared to a 2.68 FIP, 2.01 ERA, and .257 wOBA on the road. He keeps both sides of the plate under a .265 wOBA on the road and the Brewers are still striking out at a 25.5% clip. Coming off 14 innings and then some yesterday could leave the Brewers a little fatigued here. Mahle is only in the Honorable Mention just because I don’t always love using the home/road splits as my main reasoning for playing a pitcher. If you’re not in love with Walker, this could be you man tonight. 

Tarik Skubal – It’s really been a dice roll with him lately. He’s shown significant improvements and isn’t a gas can anymore. Still, the results have been a roller coaster. He smashed the Astros(!!) for 28 DK points then got whooped by the White Sox B squad. Much like any pitcher lately, the range of outcomes is really wide for Skubal. I want to see what the lineup looks like but I can’t quit that K rate for Skubal. On the season it’s above 27% and since the end of May, it’s been over 30%. At $7,200, we’d be foolish to just ignore him outright. 

Starting Rotation 7.8 Primary Stack 

Everyone will run to Toronto and I will plan on that myself but if you plan on going high/low at pitcher with Darvish/Manoah, you need some salary to play with. Good thing J.A. Happ takes the mound and most of the Detroit Tigers are cheap. Happ throws his fastball about 57% of the time for a .241 ISO and he’s given up a .397 wOBA, 5.54 xFIP, and a 2.21 HR/9. Detroit is risky because they whiff so much but they also have some hitters that can do damage against lefty pitchers. 

No Tiger hitter outside of Robbie Grossman and Jake Rogers has an ISO over .200 against the fastball but Happ’s is so poor the I’m not worried. Grossman, Rogers, Eric Haase, and Jonathan Schoop are all over a .365 wOBA and .205 ISO against lefties this season and they fit nicely with a Blue Jays stack. Here’s where you can get different and stealthy. The first move is double catcher, meaning you can play Rogers at C and move Haase to the OF spot. Haase only has 59 PA this year against lefties but the .456 ISO and 1.145 OPS speak for themselves. Secondly, Vlad Jr. was about 50% in GPP Wednesday. You could (gulp) fade Vlad for Schoop and get a serious leg up on the field if Schoop out-scores him. I wouldn’t do that fade in Single Entry but that path is there. Either way, we can go with a 3-3 Jays/Tigers stack with just about any pitching combo you want. 

Starting Rotation 7.8 Secondary Stacks 

• Cleveland against Danny Duffy, who hasn’t been right since returning from injury
• Cubs against Zach Eflin 
• Reds against Adrian Houser 
• Mets against JT Brubaker 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!