Starting Rotation 7.7

Starting Rotation 7.7

We press on in the MLB this Wednesday with a split slate today. In the early afternoon, we have a five-game slate with a nine-game nightcap. Hopefully, we don’t have to deal with the weather tilt that we did last night so let’s get right to work in Starting Rotation 7.7! 

Starting Rotation 7.7 – Early Slate

Lance Lynn – The price is where it deserves to be and I believe Lynn is the most talented pitcher on the slate. The slight issue is the K rate to lefties is just 22.9%, the xFIP is 4.90, and the wOBA is .281. Now we went against that in his last start and the Tigers rolled out a bunch of lefties, but the Tigers are second in K rate at 26.3% and the Twins sit at 22.8%. That’s actually even lower in the past 14 days and on top of that, the Twins are the best team against the fastball in the league. Lynn throws a variation of the fastball about 60% of the time. He’ll likely be chalky and I wonder if we can get away with a fade. Let’s see who else is on tap for us. 

Kyle Gibson – The price is still crazy high but Gibson does have both sides of the plate under .260 and the WHIP is under 1.05. Similar to Lynn, Gibson sees his K rate dip to just 19% to lefties and the Tigers will typically be lefty-heavy. Gibson added the cutter this season and he throws it around 13% but it hasn’t been a good pitch for him. It sits at a .412 wOBA and what worries me is it has two strikeouts total on the year and it’s basically the primary pitch to lefties. Both higher salaried pitchers have upside but both have some flaws at their prices. 

Sonny Gray – He came back from the IL in his last start and threw 86 pitches so I don’t expect any limitations this time around. That’s a great thing because Gray is very underpriced and I would expect him to be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate. I’m fine rolling with it as he has a 30.8% K rate and a 46.4% ground ball rate. There will likely be five righties in the lineup and the .353 wOBA looks rough, but the matching .353 BABIP has to come lower at some point. The four lefties play more into Gray’s strength at a 33.6% K rate and a 2.64 xFIP. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Primary Stack

I’m looking towards the Texas Rangers today to save some salary because Casey Mize has shown improvements but still scuffles against lefty hitters. He’s given up a .351 wOBA, 2.20 HR/9, and a 5.89 FIP. The most-used pitch is the fastball at about 33% and the Rangers lefties hammer that pitch. Nate Lowe, Joey Gallo, Brock Holt, and even David Dahl have ISO’s above .180 and wOBA’s over .375. I will likely max out at four Ranger and with no salary-saving pitcher, let’s talk about a punt offensive player. I’d love to roll a Rays stack but this is a seven-inning doubleheader. With the Rays at home, we’re only guaranteed six innings for the Rays. However, Vidal Brujan is on the big league club. He’s a prospect of pedigree and has a .212 ISO, .356 wOBA, and has never had a K rate over 15.7% in the minors. He’s minimum and can fly with 15 stolen bases so even a hit and SB makes his salary work. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Secondary Stacks 

• Reds against Brady Singer 
• Braves against Wil Crowe 

Starting Rotation 7.7 – Main Slate 

Zack Wheeler 

It’s not often that we don’t start a slate with Corbin Burnes but we’ll get to him. 

Burnes is now pitching Game 1 of a double-header so that’s a moot point for the main slate. 

Instead, Wheeler is my SP1 on this slate as Chicago leads the league in K rate to righty pitching and sit at 32.5% over the past 14 days. They are below average to the main pitches for Wheeler and he’s rocking a 31.3% K rate himself. Wheeler has utilized the slider more this season at about 26% and it has 42 strikeouts, a .218 wOBA, and a 31.8% whiff rate. Even though he doesn’t use the curve a ton, it has a 46.9% whiff rate and 22 strikeouts on its own. That doesn’t even count the four-seam which leads at 57 and only has a .287 wOBA. 

Overall, Wheeler has generated a 12.7% swinging-strike rate and has both sides of the plate under a .245 wOBA. The lineup for the Cubs will likely be balanced but the more lefties, the better. Wheeler jumps up to a 34.1% K rate to that side of the plate and the xFIP is under 3.00 to each side. It’s hard to find much of a hole in his game right now. 

Domingo German 

I can’t say I’m overjoyed with this play but we have to look at the salary involved and just how much Seattle strikes out. It’s over 25% no matter how you slice it and that should help German and his 21.1% K rate. His curveball has been excellent this season with a .196 wOBA and a 39.6% whiff rate. Seattle is bottom 10 against his entire pitch mix, which is another big boost for German in this spot. It’s exciting to see the four-seam might be able to get by Seattle because that pitch has been a huge trouble spot this season for him. It’s sporting a .433 wOBA and has given up nine bombs. Whereas Jameson Taillon had a splits disadvantage last night, German doesn’t have those same issues. He’s a bit better to the left side of the plate with a .306 wOBA but the xFIP is about equal to each side right around 4.50. There’s not really anything special about German, you’re playing him for some savings and the matchup. 

David Price 

I’m not as worried about the pitch mix because Price doesn’t throw anything over 37% and he’s not going to be in the game long enough to face the lineup a third time. I want to see how news breaks for Price tonight before strongly considering him. I’ll have a cheaper player in Honorable Mention that could be in this slot as well. The Dodgers need to stretch Price out as they look for a fifth starter. Now, we’re going to need some efficiency from Price since he just threw 42 pitches on Sunday. I believe we could get 55-60 tonight and if he wasn’t so cheap, I wouldn’t consider it. The K rate for Miami against lefties is also 27.6% so that helps a whole lot as well. They are bottom-five across all of our offensive categories. Price only has a 21.7% K rate across his relief innings so far but that jumps to 25% against righty hitters with a 3.40 xFIP. Miami should go with seven righties and the pitcher spot, which is enough for me. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This offense has been on fire lately and the Special is not cheap tonight. In the past 14 days, this offense is in the top-six in all of our offensive categories and is under a 24% strikeout rate. However, the Special is quietly turning into a borderline ace this season. He’s likely better suited to be a number two in a rotation, but the strides have been real. The cutter is being thrown about 40% of the time and the offense is 24th against it, while his four-seam/slider combo both sit over a 33% whiff rate and under a .250 wOBA. Overall, his K rate is 25.4% with a 53.8% ground ball rate and a 13.4% swinging-strike rate. This pitcher hasn’t been bothered by the sticky stuff crackdown with at least 23 DK points in his past four starts. He’s only given up three earned across 26.2 IP while facing Cleveland, Tampa, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto. He likely has to face nine righties but has held them to a 3.66 xFIP, a .295 wOBA, and a 27.1% hard-hit rate. If you want to go a different route, Yusei Kikuchi is your man tonight. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Honorable Mention 

Luis Garcia – I think the salary is pretty high for Garcia and he’s sort of an odd pitcher to gauge. He throws the four-seam over 48% of the time and it has 31 strikeouts. It also has six homers given up, a .378 wOBA, and a 19% whiff rate. Garcia’s secondary stuff is nasty as both his cutter and slider have a whiff rate above 45% but neither pitch is thrown more than 19.1%. He also sees significant splits with a .338 wOBA to lefties compared to a .243 mark to righties. Garcia also whiffs 30.3% of the righties he faces so let’s see the A’s lineup before deciding. 

Alex Wood – It’s a tough spot for Wood in perception, but can we possibly take advantage of that? St. Louis is loaded with righties but they have disappointed this season, sitting 20th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, 16th in wRC+, and 16th in OPS. They do only strike out 22% of the time but Wood counters with a 25.5% rate. The slider is his out pitch and the Cards rank 13th against it but is at a -8.0 on FanGraphs rating. Wood has been slightly better against the right side of the plate with a 3.55 xFIP, K rate over 27%, and a wOBA under .300. The salary is fine if a tad high but this slate doesn’t have a ton of options without some flaws. 

Humberto Castellanos – The 23-year old righty draws the Rocky Road start and he has a very limited major league track record, but it’s not horrible. The K rate is 20.4%, the xFIP is 4.66, the ground ball rate is about 46%, and the hard-hit rate in 11.2 IP this year is under 30%. There is certainly nothing special about him but at the stone minimum, he could be worth a shot and if he goes four reasonable innings to get 12-15, you could do way worse. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Primary Stack 

The Blue Jays were disappointing for the most part last night but I’m going right back to the well. Matt Harvey is on the mound once again and he throws his fastball 42% of the time to righties and it’s giving up a 50% hard contact rate, a .416 wOBA, .273 ISO, and a 315-foot average distance. The Jays hammer that pitch as a team. 

On top of all that, Harvey has a .408 wOBA to righty hitters along with a 1.057 OPS. Vlad, George Springer, and Marcus Semien all have a wOBA over .380 and an ISO of at least .261. Stepping down just a bit, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Randal Grichuk all sit over a .300 wOBA themselves. This is the offense that has me thinking about pairing Wheeler with Castellanos and going with all the bats. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!